Packers vs Colts Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts Sunday afternoon game.

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Green Bay	Rank	@	Indianapolis	Rank
2.5		Spread	-2.5
24.5		Implied Total	27
30.8	3	Points/Gm	26.9	14
24.9	15	Points All./Gm	19.7	4
63.6	22	Plays/Gm	64.6	13
58.1	2	Opp. Plays/Gm	60.1	3
43.2%	13	Rush%	43.6%	12
56.8%	20	Pass%	56.5%	21
41.9%	17	Opp. Rush %	43.3%	19
58.1%	16	Opp. Pass %	56.8%	14

The Colts have been favored in eight games this season (6-2 ATS), tied with the Chiefs for the most this season.
Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 5-2 straight up and against the spread as underdogs.
Games involving the Packers average a league-low 121.7 offensive snaps per game.
The Colts are averaging 63.8 more passing yards than their opponent, second to only the Chiefs (79.0).
Aaron Rodgers leads the league in fantasy points on throws over 15 yards downfield (75.2) and points per attempt on those passes (1.12).
The Colts are allowing 0.53 fantasy points per attempt on those downfield passes, fourth-fewest in the league.
Just 29.9% of the rushing attempts by the Colts have gained five or more yards, the lowest rate in the league.
Jordan Wilkins has forced a missed tackle on 26.0% of his touches, Nyheim Hines 19.2%, and Jonathan Taylor 9.6%.

Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has been a top-eight scorer in seven of his nine games this season throwing multiple touchdown passes in every game but one. He has had some light lifting, with six starts against bottom-10 pass defenses while facing just two defenses in the top-10 in passing points allowed per game.

The Colts have allowed the fewest passing points per game (10.9) and second in passing points allowed per attempt (0.35), but the only top-12 quarterbacks they have faced for fantasy have been Lamar Jackson and Ryan Tannehill.

The biggest area of weakness for Rodgers has been handling pressure. Rodgers is averaging just 5.3 yards per pass attempt under pressure this season as opposed to 8.9 yards per attempt when not. The Colts are seventh in the league in pressure rate (23.7%) and do so while being 28th in the league in blitz rate (19.4%).

Rodgers is still an option as a QB1, but there is some potential here for a letdown as Rodgers has to still shed the stigma of being a matchup-based fantasy option since the start of last season.

Philip Rivers (TRUST): The three highest-scoring fantasy weeks for Rivers this season have come over his past four games. They have come in soft spots against the Bengals, Lions, and Titans, all defenses in the bottom-10 in passing points allowed this season. The Packers are modest at 15th in that department (15.2 per game), but are a tick lower per attempt as 22nd (0.48) and another tick lower in yards allowed per pass attempt, 25th (7.6 Y/A).

The Packers also struggle to generate pressure, checking in at 28th in the league (16.9%). The matchup is not as glowing as the high points for Rivers this season, but indoors and attached to a 27-point team total, there are underlying peripherals here that signal that Rivers has some more upside as a streaming, potential QB1 option.

Running Back

Aaron Jones: Jones has rushed 38 times for 119 yards (3.1 YPC) over his past three games. Jones has salvaged his fantasy output over that span with 13 receptions and five in each of the past two games as well as the state of the running position aiding his drop off not falling too far as he still has been the RB15, RB14, and RB17 the past three games.

The Colts have been solid against the run, allowing just 3.4 YPC to backs (second) with Derrick Henry as the only back to rush for more than 72 yards against them with James Robinson, Kareem Hunt, Dalvin Cook, and Joe Mixon also on their resume. Jones has not gone three straight games without a touchdown since his final three games of the 2017 season. In a tougher draw, Jones is still an RB1 option by default of the position, but it is not a spot to completely anticipate a ceiling week.

Colts RBs: The Colts have not had the same back lead the team in fantasy points in back-to-back games since Weeks 5-6. Frank Reich has come out and stated that he will play all three of Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, and Jordan Wilkins early in games and then go with the hot hand approach from there.

Last week it was Hines, who had a season-high 17 touches after having 22 touches over his previous four games combined. Hines has three games this season with multiple touchdowns, which has given him the highest fantasy ceiling of this triumvirate, but he has also averaged just 6.0 fantasy points per game in his six games without a touchdown.

After double-digit touches in each of his opening seven games, Jonathan Taylor has just eight and nine touches the past two games with 37 yards or fewer in each of his past three games. Taylor still has 26 carries inside of the 10 compared to 11 for Hines and eight for Wilkins.

After 21 touches for 113 yards in Week 8, Jordan Wilkins has turned in 21 touches for 66 yards the past two games.

Hines is the most appealing of the group despite his low floor since he has 41 targets in the passing game compared to 30 combined for Taylor (23) and Wilkins (seven). If Hines can tack on rushing opportunities to his receiving role, then we have something. Needless to say, that is wishful thinking until we see someone take this thing over, which may never happen. The matchup is strong, with the Packers allowing 154 yards from scrimmage to backfields (29th).

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams: Adams leads all wideout in points per game (26.7) by a wide margin. Adams has seen double-digit targets come in his direction in all six of his full games played while reaching the end zone in five of those contests.

Adams has now played 16 full games since Week 9 of last season, catching 133-of-191 targets for 1,622 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Colts are eighth in points allowed to opposing WR1 options (12.9) with A.J. Brown (1-21-0), Allen Robinson (7-101-1), Adam Thielen (3-31-0), and Odell Beckham (5-58-0) as tangible options on their resume, but nothing to move the needle off Adams as a top WR option.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (BUST): Valdes-Scantling has delivered 44.2 PPR points the past two weeks after 49.4 points over his first seven games. He has done so without anything out of the ordinary in terms of opportunity seeing target shares of 12.9% and 17.7%, he has just made them count. As hit on in the bullet points, the Colts have been solid against the deep ball this season since they play so much zone and keep things in front of them. Allen Lazard has also been activated and will be making his return this week to add another target. Valdes-Scantling has run hot the past two weeks, but this is a spot he can cool down as a boom-or-bust WR4/FLEX.

Allen Lazard: Lazard has been activated for return to the lineup for the first time since Week 3. Through three games, Lazard had notched games of 4-63-1, 3-45-0, and 6-146-1. The Colts are third in the league in receptions allowed per game to wideouts (10.9) and fourth in catch rate allowed on targets to wideouts (61.3%). Lazard is a WR4/FLEX option.

Michael Pittman: Pittman turned in his best game as a pro last week, catching 7-of-8 targets for 101 yards while running a pass route on 95% of the team dropbacks, his highest total since Week 2. With seven and eight targets the past two games, Pittman has matched or led the team in passing game looks the past two weeks.

Pittman has also run 44% of his routes from the slot since returning in Week 8, which can allow him to shake free of Jaire Alexander for some of his routes should Alexander return after missing last week’s game with a concussion. That said, five of his receptions and 88 of his yards came on the outside in Week 10’s breakout. Pittman’s breakout is a promising start, but still is in the WR3/FLEX territory.

T.Y. Hilton: Hilton has one week higher than WR49 this season in eight games played, pacing towards career lows in receptions per game (3.3), yards per target (6.6), and yardage per game (36.4 yards). He is really just a blind swing at this stage, but is still on the field a tangible amount, running a pass route on 82.5% of the dropbacks last week.

Tight End

Robert Tonyan: Tonyan has been higher than TE17 in just one his five games since Adams returned to the lineup. Since scoring three times in Week 4 against Atlanta, Tonyan has not had an end zone target since. The Colts are allowing 53.9% of targets to tight ends to be completed (second) and 4.8 yards per target (first) to the position. They are also the only remaining team not to allow a touchdown to a tight end on the season. Tonyan is a back-end TE2.

Colts TEs: The trio of Trey Burton, Mo Alie-Cox, and Jack Doyle have combined for five TE1 scoring weeks this season. No tight end from the group has seen more than six targets in a game this season, which has happened just twice. The Packers have allowed just 29 receptions to opposing tight ends (second in the league) and just one touchdown, but are 31st in yards per target allowed (9.5 yards) if you are compelled to pursue an Indianapolis option here.

This article is normally behind a members-only paywall, but is 100% free this week as part of Sharp Football’s 2020 Free Week.

Don’t miss out: Join Free Week, where anyone can get total access to Warren Sharp’s NFL betting recommendations and our premium fantasy football for all of Week 11.

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