The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens Sunday afternoon game.
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| Tennessee | Rank | @ | Baltimore | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | Spread | -6.5 | ||
| 21.25 | Implied Total | 27.75 | ||
| 27.7 | 10 | Points/Gm | 27.1 | 12 |
| 26.1 | 17 | Points All./Gm | 18.3 | 1 |
| 63.7 | 21 | Plays/Gm | 63 | 24 |
| 68.7 | 31 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.3 | 11 |
| 48.5% | 6 | Rush% | 51.9% | 2 |
| 51.5% | 27 | Pass% | 48.2% | 31 |
| 39.0% | 7 | Opp. Rush % | 38.4% | 6 |
| 61.0% | 26 | Opp. Pass % | 61.6% | 27 |
- Since Lamar Jackson took over as the starter, the Ravens are 6-11 against the spread at home.
- Tennessee is one of three teams (Dallas and Jets) that have failed to cover on the road this season (0-3 ATS).
- The Ravens have scored on 43.5% of their possessions this season, 16th in the league. That mark was 59.8% in 2019, first in the league.
- Through nine games, Jackson has a 90-524-3 rushing line compared to a 106-702-6 rushing line at this point a year ago.
- Passing-wise, Jackson is 158-of-247 (63.9%) for 1,762 yards (7.1 Y/A) and a 14-to-5 TD-to-INT split as opposed to 168-of-255 (65.9%) for 2,036 yards (7.9 Y/A) and a 15-to-5 TD-to-INT split.
- Tennessee has the highest run rate on first down outside of the fourth quarter (64%) while Baltimore is fourth (61%).
- The Titans have a 53% success rate on those carries (ninth) and 4.6 yards per play (11th) while Baltimore has a 46% success rate (22nd) and 3.5 yards per play (30th) on those carries.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson: Jackson may never reclaim the ceiling status that he had in 2019, but he has now scored 18 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games with 20-plus in two of those. The Titans have struggled to pressure the passer this season, ranking 26th in pressure rate (17.9%) and have just 11 sacks, which is tied for the second-fewest in the league. That can aid Jackson, who has been sacked on 8.5% of his dropbacks after a 5.4% rate a year ago. Tennessee is 29th in passing points allowed per game (18.4). Chasing the 2019 version Jackson may never pay off, but he is a QB1 option in a positive matchup while providing a more stable floor of production over the past month.
Ryan Tannehill (BUST): From one offseason regression candidate to another, Tannehill has not cleared 17 fantasy points in a game since Week 6. Over his past four games, Tannehill has completed 56.5% of his passes for 7.0 yards per attempt after 69.9% and 7.9 Y/A prior. Facing the Steelers, Colts, and Bears over that stretch to go along with the Bengals will impact passing stats, but Tannehill gets another tough draw here in Baltimore against a Ravens defense that is allowing 13.7 passing points per game (seventh) and is fifth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.38). The only quarterback to throw more than two touchdown passes against Baltimore has been Patrick Mahomes.
Running Back
Derrick Henry: After a five-game scoring streak, Henry has been kept out of the end zone the past two weeks. Since Henry has 11 receptions in nine games with more than 15 yards in the air just once this season, he has been RB40 and RB22 those weeks. 87.9% of his fantasy points are from rushing output. Despite that continued usage we knew we were getting; Henry has 18 or more touches in every game this season and at least 20 in every game but one.
Henry gets another tough draw in a Baltimore defense that is allowing 10.7 rushing points to backfields per game (seventh). We did just see the New England backfield rush 28 times for 152 yards last week against Baltimore and Henry posted 202 yards on 32 touches when these teams met in the postseason a year ago to always keep him in play as a volume-based RB1.
Ravens RBs: With Mark ingram back in action last week, the factory of sadness in this backfield continued when all three backs have played. J.K. Dobbins led the way with 29 snaps, but 18 were pass routes playing from behind as he managed just six touches, fewer than Gus Edwards (eight) and Ingram (seven). In the seven games that all three have played, this backfield has produced just two top-24 scoring weeks (none since Week 2) while the most touches any individual back has in one of those games is 11 with an individual high of 77 total yards. The matchup is strong as Tennessee is 24th in the league in rushing points allowed per game to backfields (15.2), but this hodgepodge of a backfield leaves everyone as an RB3/FLEX.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown: Brown left a potential touchdown on the field last week with a drop, which halted his streak of scoring in five straight games. His 1-21-0 line came on just four targets, his fewest in a game this season. Baltimore is allowing 12.1 points per game to opposing WR1 options, which is fourth in the league. The only lead wideout to clear 100 yards against them has been Terry McLaurin. But we have already seen Brown post a 4-101-1 game against the Bears and a 6-153-1 games against the Steelers to know we should not run away from him as a starting-caliber wideout even if the matchup is not overly alluring.
Marquise Brown: Brown’s lackluster fantasy output has continued since he voiced his displeasure in the offense, catching five passes for 52 yards the past two weeks on 11 targets. For the season, Brown has the rate stats with a high team target share (22.8%) and share of air yards (40.1%). He also has seven end zone targets, which is second on the team.
Brown has now notched just two scoring weeks higher than the WR38 as he and Jackson have connected on 58.2% of their targets compared to 64.8% a year ago. Tennessee is subpar in allowing opponents to complete 47.3% of their throws over 15 yards downfield (22nd), but Brown is entrenched as a volatile WR3/FLEX.
Corey Davis: After a zero in Week 9, Davis rebounded with a respectable 5-67-0 game on six targets last week. Davis has played seven games this season and has scored double-digit points in six of those games, but has also hit 70 yards in a game just twice with those two weeks as his lone WR3 or better scoring weeks. That said, the floor has been usable, finishing lower than WR40 just once, keeping in play in PPR formats as a FLEX.
Willie Snead: I do not want to be here as much as you, but Snead has out-target Brown in two of the past three games, collectively catching 14-of-17 targets for 207 yards and two touchdowns over that span compared to a 6-55-0 line on 13 targets from Brown. Tennessee has struggled versus opposing slot wideouts this season, but have not been tested since the addition of Desmond King. Snead has been higher than WR65 in just one of his seven games without a touchdown, leaving him as a step of faith FLEX that needs to find the end zone.
Tight End
Mark Andrews (TRUST): After an 8-75-0 combined line over the previous three weeks, the 7-61-0 game that Andrews posted last week felt like an eruption. Ironically, those 13.1 PPR points matched Rob Gronkowski for the most points by a tight end in Week 10, which is gross. But the nine targets that Andrews received matched a season-high. Andrews is third at the position with eight end zone targets and should hopefully keep his usage going this week against a Tennessee defense that has allowed 5.1 receptions per game to tight ends (22nd) and 2.0 fantasy points per target (27th) to the position.
Jonnu Smith: Smith has eight receptions for 97 yards over his past five games. He has not had more than 40 yards in a game since Week 3, which was the last game in which he posted more than two receptions. Smith is tied for the league lead in touchdown receptions (six) among tight ends, which have made up 36.0% of his scoring output. While he has been a touchdown-dependent fantasy play, Smith has seen an increase in routes run the past two weeks, running a pass route on 80% and 76.7% of the dropbacks as opposed to 53.2% over his first seven games of the season.
This article is normally behind a members-only paywall, but is 100% free this week as part of Sharp Football’s 2020 Free Week.
Don’t miss out: Join Free Week, where anyone can get total access to Warren Sharp’s NFL betting recommendations and our premium fantasy football for all of Week 11.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
ARI at SEA | ATL at NO | PIT at JAX | DET at CAR | CIN at WFT | NE at HOU | PHI at CLE | TEN at BAL | MIA at DEN | NYJ at LAC | GB at IND | DAL at MIN | KC at LVR | LAR at TB
