The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers Sunday afternoon game.
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| NY Jets | Rank | @ | LA Chargers | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | Spread | -8.5 | ||
| 19.25 | Implied Total | 27.75 | ||
| 13.4 | 32 | Points/Gm | 25.1 | 17 |
| 29.8 | 30 | Points All./Gm | 27.2 | 22 |
| 59.2 | 30 | Plays/Gm | 71.3 | 2 |
| 66.4 | 23 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.3 | 9 |
| 39.8% | 20 | Rush% | 45.3% | 10 |
| 60.2% | 13 | Pass% | 54.7% | 23 |
| 44.7% | 24 | Opp. Rush % | 39.9% | 13 |
| 55.4% | 9 | Opp. Pass % | 60.1% | 20 |
- Under Anthony Lynn, the Chargers are 9-16-1 against the spread at home (36.0%), ahead of only the Giants (28.6%) over that time period.
- Opponents have scored 68.9%of the points in games involving the Jets, the largest share in the league.
- The Jets have scored a touchdown on 3-of-47 drives (6.4%) on the road this season, the lowest rate in the league.
- The Jets have a 67.9% catchable target rate, the lowest in the league. League average is 75.9%.
- The Jets have run just 38 red zone plays all season, the fewest in the league. The next closest team (Denver) has run 65.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (TRUST): Herbert is coming off his worst game as a pro, throwing for a season-low 187 yards and 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Even with that, he still had his sixth straight top-10 scoring week and 20-point fantasy game. The Jets are 20th in passing points allowed per game (17.0) and 28th in yards per pass attempt allowed (8.1 Y/A).
Joe Flacco: Flacco has been the QB19 (13.8 points), QB25 (5.4), and the QB18 (20.5) in his three starts this season, but was productive in his start before the bye when the Jets had their top three receivers on the field together for the first time this season. The Chargers have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games, but are allowing just 6.8 yards per pass attempt, good for fifth in the league. Flacco is still a back-end QB2.
Running Back
Kalen Ballage: Ballage played 46 snaps last week compared to just 17 for Joshua Kelley and zero for Troymaine Pope. Ballage turned those snaps into 23 touches for 102 yards with his second consecutive top-15 scoring week. The Jets are 26th in rushing points allowed per game to backs (15.5) and 21st in receiving points allowed per game (11.4) to the position, giving Ballage another runway to an RB2 scoring week should his usage hold.
Jets RBs: Frank Gore and La’Mical Perine have had a nearly 50/50 split of a bad offense since trading Le’Veon Bell away. The team has suggested that Perine will be used more coming out of the bye, but Perine has turned 57 touches into 217 total yards so far this season. The Chargers have allowed over 100 rushing yards to four straight backfields in Miami, Las Vegas, Denver, and Jacksonville to keep hope alive, but as a huge road underdog, Perine is more of an RB3/FLEX option that counting on RB2 production based solely on word of mouth from this staff.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen (TRUST): Allen had just three catches for 39 yards last week, but managed to find the end zone for the third straight game to salvage his afternoon. Allen has now found pay dirt in five of his past seven games. Even with last week factored in, Allen’s 7.2 receptions per game are pacing to be his most in a season since 2015. Allen should have no real issues bouncing back against a Jets secondary that is allowing 16.3 points per game to opposing WR1 options, 22nd in the league.
Mike Williams: After a 2-38-0 game on five targets last week, Williams has been a WR3 or better in consecutive weeks just once this season. Williams has been a top-12 scorer in two of his seven games playing with Herbert, but also the WR63 or lower in four of those games. The Jets are 27th in completion rate allowed on throws over 15 yards downfield (50%) to keep the lights on for Williams cashing in a splash play as a boom-or-bust WR3/FLEX.
Jamison Crowder: Crowder only managed two targets in Week 9 prior to the bye, but turned one of them into a 20-yard touchdown, which gives him double-digit points in every game played this season. The downside is that Crowder had his two lowest yardage games over his past two weeks with Flacco, posting 48 and 26 yards, and the Jets have more bodies back on the field at wide receiver to rein in the 29.5% target share that Crowder had over his first four games played.
The Chargers have allowed just two 100-yard wideouts this season and just two to clear five receptions in a game while ranking sixth in completion rate allowed to the position (62.2%). Crowder is a floor-based WR3 in PPR formats and a FLEX in non-PPR formats.
Breshad Perriman: After 118 yards over his first four games of the season, Perriman hit the bye week grabbing 5-of-7 targets for 101 yards and two touchdowns in Week 9 against the Patriots. The Chargers are 30th in fantasy points allowed per target on deep targets this season if you want to chase Perriman’s breakout holding steady as a volatile WR4.
Denzel Mims: Mims ran the same number of pass routes (26) as Perriman in that Week 9 game and had eight targets. In his three games played this season, Mims has run a pass route on 79.3%, 97.1%, and 100% of the team dropbacks. The results have not led to a week higher than WR48, but Mims should be monitored coming out of the bye week in hopes of a second-half surge.
Jalen Guyton: Guyton received a season-high six targets last week, but managed to turn in just four catches for 24 yards. It was Guyton’s first game with more than two receptions all season while he has reached 25 yards just three times in a game this season. Despite the target spike, Guyton ran a pass route on 77.8% of the team drop backs, his lowest rate in a game since Week 7. Anyone can hit against the Jets deplorable secondary, but Guyton is a Hail Mary play.
Tight End
Hunter Henry: Henry managed to find the end zone for the second time last week, but with four catches for 30 yards, he has not cleared four receptions in a game since Week 3 and has not had more than 39 yards in a game over the same span. The Jets are 28th in yards allowed per target (8.6 yards) and have allowed an 11.1% touchdown rate to tight ends (30th) to keep Henry as a TE1 option given the state of the position.
This article is normally behind a members-only paywall, but is 100% free this week as part of Sharp Football’s 2020 Free Week.
Don’t miss out: Join Free Week, where anyone can get total access to Warren Sharp’s NFL betting recommendations and our premium fantasy football for all of Week 11.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
ARI at SEA | ATL at NO | PIT at JAX | DET at CAR | CIN at WFT | NE at HOU | PHI at CLE | TEN at BAL | MIA at DEN | NYJ at LAC | GB at IND | DAL at MIN | KC at LVR | LAR at TB
