The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders Sunday Night Football game.

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Kansas CityRank@Las VegasRank
-6.5Spread6.5
31.5Implied Total25
31.82Points/Gm28.38
20.36Points All./Gm26.819
64.414Plays/Gm64.316
65.419Opp. Plays/Gm63.913
39.8%19Rush%48.7%5
60.2%14Pass%51.3%28
44.5%23Opp. Rush %39.7%11
55.5%10Opp. Pass %60.4%22
  • Teams coached by Andy Reid have an 18-3 record coming off a bye, the best mark as a head coach since his first season in 1999.
  • Since hiring Reid in 2013, Kansas City has the league’s best record against divisional opponents at 34-11, including a 29-4 record over the past five seasons.
  • The Chiefs are the only AFC team in the league that is averaging over 30 points per game both at home (32.0) and on the road (31.5).
  • The Raiders have scored on 55.2% of their possessions, the highest rate in the league.
  • The Chiefs have scored on 54.1% of their drives, second in the league.
  • Kansas City leads the league with 4.8 plays per game of 20 or more yards. 
  • Patrick Mahomes leads the league on third downs in touchdown passes (nine), first down percentage (53.9%), and rating (139.6) while ranking second in yards per attempt (9.8).

 

Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes (TRUST): Mahomes hit the bye throwing nine touchdown passes in his past two games and sits with a 25-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the season. He is currently averaging more fantasy points per game (26.5) than he did in 2018. That lone interception came when these teams played earlier in the season, when Mahomes was still the QB2 overall (29.7 points) back in Week 5. Mahomes is averaging 26.3 fantasy points per game in five career games versus the Raiders.

Derek Carr: Carr has slowed down the past three weeks for fantasy, finishing as the QB20 or lower in each of the past three games while passing for 112, 165, and 154 yards in those games after a previous season-low of 239 yards prior. He has just 24, 23, and 25 attempts in those games after 30 or more in each of the opening six games.

That includes his highest-scoring game of the season when these teams played in Week 5 (23.9 points). In that game, Carr threw for a season-high 347 yards and 11.2 yards per pass attempt. That was the only game in which the Chiefs allowed more than two touchdown passes this season and was one of just two times a passer has hit 8.0 yards per pass attempt against them this season. Despite the impressive Week 5, Carr is still a QB2 option and a streaming hopeful for those looking to channel that early season performance rolling over in the rematch.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs has rushed for 305 yards and 4.6 YPC the past three weeks after rushing for 394 yards and 3.4 YPC over the opening six weeks of the season. He even had his most targets (four) last week since Week 1. Game script matters for Jacobs still as the Raiders have led throughout the past three weeks. On the season, Jacobs has received 49.6% of the team touches while tied or ahead compared to 34.6% when trailing.

In three career games against Kansas City, Jacobs has turned in 12 touches for 99 yards, 17 for 104 yards, and 25 for 85 yards and two scores, the latter of which came in Week 5 when these teams last played. Jacobs needs neutral game scripts to keep up his recent hot streak as an RB1 option.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: In the three games prior to the bye, Edwards-Helaire rushed 19 times for 81 yards and a touchdown while catching seven passes for 47 yards and a touchdown. Le’Veon Bell has been a non-factor, touching the ball just 20 times for 80 yards since joining the Chiefs. 

Maybe Bell is more exciting after the bye, but the Chiefs have just steered pass heavy, throwing the ball 70.2% and 81.0% of their plays the past two games, their two highest rates in a game this season. Their third-highest rate came in Week 5 against the Raiders. That is not surprising since it is their only loss, but Edwards-Helaire handled just 13 touches in that game. 

The matchup is not daunting as the Raiders are 22nd in total yards allowed per game to backfields (141.0 yards), but Edwards-Helaire has turned in just three weeks this season higher than the RB19, with the last one coming in Week 6, making him more of mid-RB2 option still attached to a top-scoring offense.

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill (TRUST): After just one WR1 scoring week through seven games and 62.7 yards per game, Hill found his ceiling in Weeks 8-9, catching four passes for 98 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets and then turning a season-high 18 targets into a 9-113-2 game against Carolina. Hill has scored 31.3% of the Kansas City touchdowns, the highest team share for a wide receiver this season. The Raiders are 28th in completion rate allowed on targets over 15 yards downfield (51.8%). 

Chiefs WRs: Coming out of the bye, we will have to monitor practice early in the week to see if the Chiefs will be getting Sammy Watkins back. Watkins has not played since exiting the Week 5 matchup between these teams with a hamstring injury. In his absence the past four games, Demarcus Robinson has caught 13-of-15 targets for 170 yards and two touchdowns while Mecole Hardman grabbed 12-of-16 targets for 201 yards a touchdown. If Watkins returns, he is a WR3 option while Robinson and Hardman are boom-or-bust WR4/FLEX plays buying attachment to Mahomes.

Raiders WRs: The Raiders receiving corps is averaging a league-low 8.4 receptions on 12.8 targets per game. They have collectively combined for three top-24 scoring weeks with one coming from each of Henry Ruggs, Nelson Agholor, and Hunter Renfrow. While Agholor has added three more top-36 scoring weeks and Renfrow another.

In the first matchup between these teams, no Raiders wideout caught more than two passes, but Ruggs (2-118-1), Agholor (2-67-1), and Renfrow (1-42-0) each had a reception of 40-plus yards in that game. 

The Chiefs have allowed just one other reception of 40 yards or more outside of that game. If chasing a score here as a FLEX option, Agholor leads this outfit with five end zone targets compared to one each for Ruggs and Renfrow.

Tight End

Travis Kelce (TRUST): Kelce is head and shoulders above the tight end class this season, averaging 18.8 PPR points per game, which would be good for the WR5 per game and the same amount per game as Stefon Diggs for reference. Kelce has already matched his touchdown total from a year ago (six) while averaging what would be a career-high 85.4 yards per game.

The gap between Kelce to the TE2 (Waller) in overall scoring this season is 50.8 PPR points, which is as large of a gap as Waller has over the TE20. Kelce has a long resume of torching the Raiders, with games of 8-108-1, 5-90-0, 7-107-1, 5-62-0, and 12-168-2, versus them with Mahomes under center.  

Darren Waller: With the Raiders having a strong reduction in dropbacks the past three weeks, Waller has posted just 28, 22, and 37 yards over that stretch. Waller has topped 50 yards in just two games this season, but has already matched his season total in end zone targets from a year ago (six) and surpassed his touchdown total with four scores. When these teams met in Week 5, Waller caught 5-of-7 targets for 48 yards and a touchdown after games of 7-100-0 and 6-63-0 versus the Chiefs in 2019. Waller is not Kelce, but he is the TE2 option overall behind him.

This article is normally behind a members-only paywall, but is 100% free this week as part of Sharp Football’s 2020 Free Week.

Don’t miss out: Join Free Week, where anyone can get total access to Warren Sharp’s NFL betting recommendations and our premium fantasy football for all of Week 11.

More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

ARI at SEA | ATL at NO | PIT at JAX | DET at CAR | CIN at WFT | NE at HOU | PHI at CLE | TEN at BAL | MIA at DEN | NYJ at LAC | GB at IND | DAL at MIN | KC at LVR | LAR at TB