Rams vs Buccaneers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Monday Night Football game.

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LA Rams	Rank	@	Tampa Bay	Rank
3.5		Spread	-3.5
22		Implied Total	25.5
24	19	Points/Gm	29.6	6
18.7	2	Points All./Gm	22.6	8
68.2	5	Plays/Gm	64.6	12
62	8	Opp. Plays/Gm	61.8	7
45.6%	9	Rush%	38.1%	24
54.4%	24	Pass%	61.9%	9
38.4%	5	Opp. Rush %	37.4%	3
61.7%	28	Opp. Pass %	62.6%	30

The Buccaneers are 0-3 against the spread on prime time this season.
The Rams are second in the league in sack differential (+18) while the Buccaneers are third (+17).
Jared Goff (-5.2 yards per pass attempt) and Tom Brady (-3.5 Y/A) rank 35th and 30th out of 35 passers in the differential in yards per pass under pressure versus kept clean.
Both the Buccaneers and Rams lead the league with a +15 differential in plays of 20 or more yards versus their opponents.
The Rams have allowed just one touchdown from outside of the red zone all season, the fewest in the league.
22.2% of Mike Evans’s targets are from inside of the red zone, the highest rate of any player with 50 or more targets on the season.
28.4% of Darrell Henderson’s carries have come from inside of the red zone, the highest rate for any running back.
Tom Brady leads the league in fantasy points scored inside of the 10-yard line (90.3).
No team has more rushing attempts inside of the 10-yard line than the Rams (36), who have a 36-to-11 run-to-pass rate (76.6%) in that area of the field.

Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards

Quarterback

Tom Brady (BUST): Coming off a Week 9 no-show, Brady threw for a season-high 8.7 yards per pass attempt last week at Carolina.

Over the past six weeks, Brady has three top-10 scoring weeks against the Panthers, Giants, and Raiders to go along with three weeks as the QB18 or lower versus the Bears, Packers, and Saints. The Rams were finally tested by another good fantasy quarterback last week to help solidify their strong seasonal output to date. The Rams have now allowed one or fewer passing touchdowns in seven of their nine games this season.

They do not have a perfect record as both Josh Allen (31.2 points) and Jimmy Garoppolo (23.5 points) have hit them for QB1 scoring weeks, but limiting the scorching Russell Wilson to 6.7 yards per pass attempt and just 5.9 passing points reinforces the Rams ranking of second in passing points allowed per game (11.1) and league-leading 6.4 yards per pass attempt.

The Rams are tied for fourth in the league with 31 sacks this season, but only blitz 25% of the time (22nd).

Jared Goff (BUST): Goff has finished as the QB17 or lower in each of his past four games. After 5.8 yards per pass attempt over his previous three games, Goff did bounce back with 8.2 yards per pass attempt against Seattle and 302 passing yards, but failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since Week 1, which mushed his fantasy output.

This week, Goff draws a tough spot for the areas he struggles most. Goff is averaging 3.7 yards per pass attempt under pressure while the Buccaneers get pressure 26.1% of the time, the third-highest rate in the league. Goff has seen only a slight dip in performance against the blitz, averaging 7.0 yards per pass attempt versus extra rushers compared to 7.9 Y/A without, which is significant since the Bucs blitz 40.1% of the time, behind only the Ravens (40.4%). With Andrew Whitworth sidelined, things are only compounded in pass protection this Monday.

Tampa Bay is 10th in passing points allowed per game (14.2) and have allowed just one passer to finish inside of the top-10 this season.

Running Back

Rams RBs: Coming out of the bye, Malcolm Brown led the Rams backfield with 29 snaps, Darrell Henderson 23, and Cam Akers 18. That 25.7% snap share was the largest for Akers since Week 1 and he led the team with 10 rushing attempts 38 yards. Unfortunately for him, Brown and Henderson soaked up the money touches and each scored in the red zone.

Henderson’s eight touches for 33 yards were his fewest in a game since Week 1 in both areas. With Akers getting more early down carries, there is a problem for Henderson since Brown has had third downs all to himself this season, handling 26 touches on third down compared to six for Henderson and two for Akers.

Both early down backs are in trouble this week as the Buccaneers are allowing a league-low 3.1 YPC to backs this season. They have allowed seven rushing touchdowns to backs (T-16th), but we will have to chase a touchdown from both Akers and Henderson this week to float their total lines as FLEX options. The one weak spot for the Bucs to backs is they are 25th in passing points allowed per game to backs (12.1), which would favor Brown, who has run a pass route on 49.4% of the team dropbacks, but he is also just an RB3/FLEX.

Buccaneers RBs: Would you have guessed that the Tampa Bay backfield is still unsettled through 10 weeks this season?

After playing 33 total snaps Weeks 8-9 as Tampa Bay played catchup, Ronald Jones played 47 snaps last week (58.8%), his largest share since Week 5 and largest in any game with Leonard Fournette healthy. With 24 touches for 198 yards and a colossus 98-yard touchdown, it was the first time Jones has finished higher than RB23 in a game Fournette played.

With Jones rolling on the ground and game script in hand, Fournette played just 36.2% of the snaps, his lowest rate in a game since Week 1. Fournette still did nearly double Jones in pass routes 11-6. The only thing we do know for sure at this point each week is that Fournette is the passing down back.

The Rams are allowing 10.5 rushing points per game (12th) and 4.0 YPC to backs (10th). They have not allowed a back to rush for more than 71 yards in a game since Week 2, but have faced the Seahawks, Dolphins, Bears, 49ers, Washington, Giants, and Bills over that stretch, which is filled with limited rushing teams and banged-up units.

As home favorites, the game script should favor Jones IF we believe that he is the neutral game script rusher, but it was easily his best game a week ago with both Buccaneer backs active. Fournette was coming off three consecutive games with double-digit PPR points since returning to the lineup, but our hands are semi in the air here outside of knowing who will play passing downs. I view Jones as a lower-end boom-or-bust RB2/FLEX with Fournette as a floor-based RB3/FLEX, but we will be back next week to see what has changed.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans: Evans is coming off a season-high 11 targets last week and has produced 64 and 77 yards the past two games, season highs in games he has played with Chris Godwin active. 34.4% of Evans’s output has come via touchdowns, so he is still touchdown-needy, finishing as the WR46, WR67, and WR89 in the weeks he failed to secure a score. It is doubtful that we see Jalen Ramsey lock onto one Tampa Bay wideout, so we will not weigh that heavily into things from altering Evans as a touchdown-dependent WR2. The Rams are second in the league in yards allowed per target to opposing wideouts (7.3 yards) and third in points allowed per target (1.58).

Chris Godwin: Godwin has just one WR1 scoring week, but he has had the best floor of the Tampa Bay wideouts, finishing as a top-30 wideout in four of his six games played. He has had at least five catches in five of those six games. Echoing the tough assignment above, Godwin is a floor-based WR2 option.

Antonio Brown: While all of the Tampa Bay wideouts hit last week, it is important to acknowledge that the Bucs ran a season-high 77 offensive plays last week, too. Brown ran a pass route on 63.4% of the team dropbacks, but was targeted on a team-high 30.8% of his routes. He caught 7-of-8 targets for 69 yards and was missed on a potential walk-in touchdown early in the game. Brown is still finding his place in the offense, but has not shown any physical limitations the past two weeks to suggest that he is not capable of still being productive as a WR3 option.

Rams WRs: Over the past three games, we have seen this unit tighten up as Cooper Kupp (124), Josh Reynolds (123) and Robert Woods (122) have all run a nearly identical amount of pass routes.

Woods has been all over the place this season in terms of yardage, having five games with 35 yards or fewer receiving, but scoring a touchdown in five different games, the most on the team. Over the past three weeks, Woods has seen his target share dip to 15% after 23% over the opening six games. He has been higher than the WR26 in two of his past six games, and the WR47 or lower in three of those games. Woods is still running a pass route 90% of the team dropbacks, so we are just going to have to live with his ups and downs as a WR2/WR3 option.

Kupp was riding off a 20-target game in Week 8, but he apparently was not over his wrist injury coming out of the bye as he ran a pass route on a season low 69.1% of the team passes after 90.6% prior. Kupp was not on the injury report and suited up, catching 5-of-6 targets for 50 yards. Kupp has scored double-digit points in seven of nine games, but has been higher than WR33 just three times. Monitor Kupp’s status for anything odd during the week as a WR3/FLEX option.

Reynolds has seen his targets rise from the week prior in four consecutive games, catching 8-of-10 targets for 94 yards last week. Reynolds has been a WR4 or better in all four of those games with three top-30 scoring weeks, placing him in the same area as Kupp. He also leads the team with four end zone targets.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski: Gronk only had two catches and three targets last week, but he managed to secure two of them for 51 yards and a score. Those 13.1 PPR points were actually good for matching the highest score at TE last week, which goes to show you where we are at the position.

Gronk has just 13 targets over the past three weeks, but he has scored a touchdown in four of his past five games and now leads all tight ends with 10 end zone targets on the season. He has one TE1 scoring week in his six games without a touchdown, but Gronk is on the board as a touchdown-dependent TE1.

Rams TEs: Coming out of the bye, Tyler Higbee ran a pass route on 50% of the team dropbacks, his highest rate in a game since Week 4. His six targets and 71 air yards and 60 receiving yards were season highs, but he still has reached double-digit PPR points just once on the season. Gerald Everett got dinged up for a portion of the game and ran a pass route on 40.5% of the passes, his lowest rate since Week 5. Both Rams tight ends are TE2 options unless someone breaks free over the back half of the season.

This article is normally behind a members-only paywall, but is 100% free this week as part of Sharp Football’s 2020 Free Week.

Don’t miss out: Join Free Week, where anyone can get total access to Warren Sharp’s NFL betting recommendations and our premium fantasy football for all of Week 11.

More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: