The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos Sunday afternoon game.
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| Miami | Rank | @ | Denver | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | Spread | 3.5 | ||
| 24.25 | Implied Total | 20.75 | ||
| 27.9 | 9 | Points/Gm | 20.7 | 28 |
| 20.2 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 28.2 | 27 |
| 59.4 | 29 | Plays/Gm | 65.6 | 9 |
| 66 | 21 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.4 | 28 |
| 46.2% | 8 | Rush% | 38.1% | 23 |
| 53.8% | 25 | Pass% | 61.9% | 10 |
| 41.1% | 15 | Opp. Rush % | 43.3% | 20 |
| 58.9% | 18 | Opp. Pass % | 56.7% | 13 |
- The Dolphins have covered the spread in six straight games, the longest streak in the league.
- Denver has scored on 25.5% of their drives at home this season, the lowest rate in the league.
- 17.8% of the Miami offensive snaps have come from inside of the red zone, the second-highest rate in the league behind the Saints (19.7%).
- 91.7% of the Miami offensive touchdowns have been scored inside of the red zone, the highest rate in the league.
- The Dolphins are 31st in the league on plays of 20 or more yards per game (2.8).
- Just 21.1% of the receiving yardage generated by the Miami wide receivers has come after the catch, the lowest rate in the league.
- 20.5% of the rushing attempts by Denver have failed to gain yardage, the highest rate in the league.
- Drew Lock is 16-of-52 (30.8%) on throws over 15 yards downfield with one touchdown and five interceptions.
- 21.9% of Lock’s pass attempts have come on those throws, the second-highest rate in the league for all passers with over 100 pass attempts.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa: Tua has finished as the QB28, QB16, and QB15 in his first three NFL starts. Not asked to do a lot of heavy lifting himself due to Miami controlling game scripts and scoring defensive and special teams touchdowns, Tagovailoa has thrown just 22, 28, and 25 passes in those games. Denver is seventh in allowing 6.9 yards per pass attempt to passers and 13th in passing points allowed per game (14.6), leaving Tua as a QB2 option.
Drew Lock (BUST): Lock is dealing with a muscle strain around his ribs and his status is uncertain heading into Week 11. This is not a potentially strong spot for Lock as Miami blitzes at the third-highest rate in the league (37.7%) and Lock is averaging 5.8 yards per attempt with one touchdown and six interceptions (28.8 rating) against the blitz this season. Lock has completed 32.5% of his passes under pressure, ahead of only Dwayne Haskins (24.1%) among all passers with 100 or more drop backs this season.
Running Back
Salvon Ahmed: Ahmed led the Miami backfield with 44 snaps (76%) last week, handling 22-of-26 backfield touches for 90 yards and a touchdown. Ahmed ran a pass route on 57.7% of the team drop backs, which was ninth at the position. Denver has had their struggles against the run of late, allowing 193 yards on the ground to the Raiders backs a week ago and 188 yards rushing to the Chargers backfield in Week 8 sandwiching a solid 78 yards rushing to Atlanta backs in Week 9. With Jordan Howard released this week, there is no threat for Ahmed turning in floor-based RB2 weeks like Myles Gaskin was in the same role .
Broncos RBs: Melvin Gordon has managed just 47, 27, and 46 yards the past three weeks. He has had 14, seven, and 11 touches in his past three games playing alongside a healthy Phillip Lindsay after 18 or more touches in each of his first five games played with Lindsay either out or leaving the game early.
Lindsay has played in five games with Gordon and has not topped more than nine touches in any of those games while he does not have a touch on third down this season and just two catches. With both available, Gordon is a touchdown-dependent FLEX option while Lindsay is only in play for those hoping to cash in a long touchdown run.
Wide Receiver
DeVante Parker: Parker has turned in lines of 1-3-1, 6-64-0, and 2-31-0 in his three games played with Tagovailoa. He has sustained 25.0% and 28.0% of the team’s targets the past two games, but the overall amount of dropbacks have limited overall target volume while Parker’s lack of elite separation is still in a transitional phase attached to the rookie passer as opposed to Ryan Fitzpatrick. Denver has allowed the opposing WR1 to score in three of their past four games. Treat Parker as a WR3 option based on team target share, but needing to find a stable floor and more overall team passing volume to take a step up to weekly WR2 status.
Jerry Jeudy: Moving outside in Week 8, Jeudy has ranked first, first, and third among all wide receivers in air yards the past three weeks and tied for second at the position with 32 targets. The downside is that he has secured just 15 of those targets as just 59.9% of his targets have been deemed catchable by Pro Football Focus, which is second to last among all wideouts with 50 or more targets on the season behind A.J. Green (50.8%). Miami has been stingy to opposing lead wideouts in Keenan Allen (3-39-1) and DeAndre Hopkins (3-30-0) the past two weeks, but Jeudy having 148 more air yards than the next closest wide receiver over the past three weeks keeps him more than in play as an upside-based WR2.
Jakeem Grant: Grant was the next man up after Miami lost Preston Williams potentially for the season in Week 9. Last week, Grant ran a pass route on 76.9% of the team dropbacks, catching 4-of-5 targets for 43 yards and a touchdown, nearly missing another score. Grant has not had more than five targets or 48 yards receiving in a game this season, but his 20% target share last week was a season-high. Grant is still a WR5 for fantasy purposes, but someone to roster in deeper leagues and monitor should Miami’s passing volume climb.
K.J. Hamler: The musical chairs that Hamler and Jeudy had in roles has also helped Hamler out. After 18 targets through five games played, Hamler has had 20 targets the past two weeks with games of 6-75-0 and 4-50-0. Last week, Hamler ran a pass route on 91.8% of team dropbacks. Hamler has also had to deal with the volatility of Lock’s accuracy, but with the team dropping back to pass 48 times per game over the past four weeks, the amount of team passing volume can cover up some of the inefficiency, keeping Hamler as a WR4/FLEX option.
Tim Patrick: While the rookies have gotten more run of late, Patrick has still been chipping in fantasy points, scoring double-digit PPR points in four of his past five games. Ejected last week, Patrick caught 4-of-6 targets for 61 yards. While the floor has been usable, Patrick has bested those 61 yards just twice on the season, which does not offer much a consistent ceiling as more than WR4/FLEX.
Tight End
Noah Fant: Fant has been a TE1 scorer in just one of his past six games, failing to clear 47 yards in a game since Week 2 as he has dealt with an on and off ankle injury. The positive news is that Fant played 85% of the snaps last week, his highest rate of the season. He has had six or more targets in every game played but two. Miami has allowed just 6.1 yards per target to opposing tight ends (sixth), but they have allowed three touchdowns to opposing tight ends over their past two games to give Fant a pulse as a fringe-TE1 option.
Mike Gesicki: Gesicki has been higher than the TE18 just twice this season, catching just six passes for 90 yards over his past four games. Gesicki still leads the position with 15.5 yards per catch, but his 24 receptions are 18th at the position for the season. Gesicki’s last end zone target came all the way back in Week 5. Denver is 23rd in receptions allowed per game (5.2) to tight ends and 30th in completion rate on targets to tight ends (78.3%), but Gesicki is a boom-or-bust TE2 option.
This article is normally behind a members-only paywall, but is 100% free this week as part of Sharp Football’s 2020 Free Week.
Don’t miss out: Join Free Week, where anyone can get total access to Warren Sharp’s NFL betting recommendations and our premium fantasy football for all of Week 11.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
ARI at SEA | ATL at NO | PIT at JAX | DET at CAR | CIN at WFT | NE at HOU | PHI at CLE | TEN at BAL | MIA at DEN | NYJ at LAC | GB at IND | DAL at MIN | KC at LVR | LAR at TB
