The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team Sunday afternoon game.
This article is normally behind a members-only paywall, but is 100% free this week as part of Sharp Football’s 2020 Free Week.
Don’t miss out: Join Free Week, where anyone can get total access to Warren Sharp’s NFL betting recommendations and our premium fantasy football for all of Week 11.
| Cincinnati | Rank | @ | Washington | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | Spread | -1.5 | ||
| 22.5 | Implied Total | 24 | ||
| 22.7 | 22 | Points/Gm | 20 | 29 |
| 27.8 | 24 | Points All./Gm | 24.2 | 14 |
| 71.2 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 64.7 | 11 |
| 64.1 | 15 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61.4 | 6 |
| 37.1% | 27 | Rush% | 36.9% | 29 |
| 62.9% | 6 | Pass% | 63.1% | 4 |
| 41.6% | 16 | Opp. Rush % | 47.2% | 29 |
| 58.4% | 17 | Opp. Pass % | 52.8% | 4 |
- The Bengals have not won in 18 consecutive road games, the longest streak in the league.
- The Bengals have scored on 55.3% (21-of-38) of their possessions at home this season, first in the league, but have scored on 34.5% (19-of-55) on the road, 28th in the league.
- Cincinnati is averaging a league-low 4.6 yards per play on first downs.
- The Bengals are last in the league in differential of plays of 20 or more yards gained versus allowed (-20).
- 43.5% of the touchdowns allowed by Washington have come from outside of the red zone, the highest rate in the league.
- Washington has a 19-2 (90.5%) rushing to passing play rate inside of the 5-yard line, and a 27-8 split (77.1%) inside of the 10-yard line, the highest rates in the league.
- Antonio Gibson has accounted for 33.3% of the Washington offensive touchdowns, fourth among all running backs.
- 60.2% of the Washington receiving yardage has been produced after the catch, the highest percentage in the league.
- Terry McLaurin’s 400 yards after the catch are the most among all wide receivers.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Quarterback
Joe Burrow: Burrow struggled mightily last week, completing a season-low 52.5% of his passes for 5.3 yards per attempt against the Steelers. His two lowest-scoring games this season have now come against the Ravens and Steelers, who are both top-10 in limiting passing output for fantasy. Washington is fourth in passing points allowed per game (13.0) but under the hood, they are far worse than that mark. Washington faces the second-fewest passes per game (29.2), but ranks 16th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.45) and 20th in yards allowed per attempt (7.3). No quarterback drops back to pass more than Burrow at 46.4 times per game, so the volume here can elevate those counting stats Washington has skirted due to the lack of volume they have faced.
Of course, the one real thorn here is that Burrow is averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt when kept clean as opposed to 4.3 Y/A under pressure and Washington is 11th in pressure rate (24.6%) while 20th in blitz rate (28.7%). Volume is still Burrow’s friend for fantasy to keep him in the mid-QB2 range with upside.
Alex Smith: In his first start since breaking his leg in 2018, Smith completed 38-of-55 passes for 390 yards. His 58 dropbacks were a season-high for Washington as he threw 25 times for 162 yards in the fourth quarter catching up on the scoreboard. Smith gets another soft draw here against a Bengals team that is last in the league in pressure rate (15.1%) and tied with the second-fewest sacks in the league (11). Cincinnati is allowing 18,3 passing points per game (28th) and have allowed multiple touchdown passes in six consecutive games. Smith does not have high odds for a larger ceiling, but is a matchup-based streaming option for a floor.
Running Back
Antonio Gibson: Gibson has hit 70 yards from scrimmage in just two games this season, but has managed to find the end zone in six of his past eight games, which has played a role in him having eight consecutive top-30 scoring weeks. Gibson did have two third down touches last week after just one all season prior, but was still well behind McKissic in routes run 40-18. Gibson needs to wrestle away more in the passing game from McKissic to elevate over weekly RB2 status, but as a rare home favorite, Gibson draws a Bengals defense that is 31st in yards per carry allowed to opposing backs (5.2 YPC). In the last game that Washington was a home favorite Week 7 against Dallas, Gibson handled a career-high 20 touches.
J.D. McKissic: McKissic has amassed 14 and 15 targets the past two weeks. That is a real thing that has happened. Smith has targeted McKissic on 32.4% of his passes this season. They have resulted in just 3.9 yards per target, but McKissic has run off six consecutive scoring weeks as an RB3 or higher with three top-12 scoring weeks in PPR formats over his past four games. Since getting on the field regularly in Week 2, only Alvin Kamara has more targets (63) and receptions (53) than McKissic’s 59 and 40.
Washington has just one win over the span, but as a home favorite in Week 7, McKissic has just two receptions and seven touches, by far his fewest in a game as a regular player. Washington is no lock to secure a victory and McKissic has the passing-game role secured on third downs, even in positive game script, but he is more of a floor-play as a home favorite than someone to count on seeing double-digit targets for a third straight game.
Bengals RB: Joe Mixon’s status still remains a mystery as he has been sidelined since Week 6. Continue to follow along for updates and circle back here should he start to practice and be ready to return this weekend. If not, Giovani Bernard is once again an option. Bernard has had 18, 18, and 12 touches in his three games with Mixon out while his yardage has declined each week from 96 to 78 to 47 yards in those games. Despite the drop off last week against Pittsburgh, Bernard still played 44 snaps compared to 16 for Samaje Perine. Washington is mid-pack in rushing points allowed per game to backs (13.2) and ninth in receiving points allowed per game (8.2). Bernard would once again be an RB2 option with added viability in PPR formats should Mixon remain out.
Wide Receiver
Terry McLaurin (TRUST): With seven catches for 95 yards last week, McLaurin has now grabbed seven passes in each of his past four games, turning in a WR2 or better scoring week in five of his past six games. Leading the league in yards after the catch among wideouts, McLaurin also leads the position in share of air yardage (43.0%). The Bengals just allowed three top-12 scoring weeks to Pittsburgh wideouts a week ago, and have allowed and have allowed 10 different wideouts to have double-digit points over their past four games.
Tyler Boyd: Boyd has finished as a WR3 or better in seven of his nine games this season, catching five or more passes in every game but two. Washington has been solid against opposing slot options this season, with Cooper Kupp’s 5-66-0 as the best fantasy line against them from a primary slot option.
Like their passing metric highlighted with Burrow, Washington is tied in facing the fewest targets per game to opposing wideouts at 15.9, but they are 20th in yards per target allowed to wideouts. The Bengals target their wide receivers a league-high 27.9 times per game. Where they have been strong is allowing just five touchdown passes to wideouts, but Detroit wideouts just caught a pair last weekend. Boyd is still a floor-based WR3.
Tee Higgins: The same above applies to Higgins, who has double-digit points in seven straight games. Since playing as a regular in Week 3, Higgins is 17th among all wideouts in targets (54), tied for 14th in receptions (37) while ranking sixth in receiving yards (568) and eighth in air yards (699). No wideout has 100 yards against Washington this season, but we just saw Marvin Jones have an 8-96-1 line while Higgins has been a WR3 or better in six of his past seven games.
Tight End
Logan Thomas: Thomas does not have more than four receptions in a game this season, but has received six targets in each of the past two games while turning in a TE1 scoring week in three of his past four games. The Bengals are 31st in yardage allowed per game to tight ends (64.8). Just two individual tight ends have hit that mark against them and they have allowed five TE1 scoring weeks, allowing Thomas to hang onto viability as a top-12 tight end.
This article is normally behind a members-only paywall, but is 100% free this week as part of Sharp Football’s 2020 Free Week.
Don’t miss out: Join Free Week, where anyone can get total access to Warren Sharp’s NFL betting recommendations and our premium fantasy football for all of Week 11.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
ARI at SEA | ATL at NO | PIT at JAX | DET at CAR | CIN at WFT | NE at HOU | PHI at CLE | TEN at BAL | MIA at DEN | NYJ at LAC | GB at IND | DAL at MIN | KC at LVR | LAR at TB
