After reading Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet for MIA@JAX, I’m only feeling comfortable with a handful of options for this Showdown slate.
Gardner Minshew and Ryan Fitzpatrick are the top plays by a mile, and I will likely end up overweight on both. James Robinson has gotten over 80% of the Jaguars’ backfield touches, and is the only running back I trust in this game.
Lastly, I like Mike Gesicki who had the best game of his young career last week. He is an elite talent with a soft matchup, and if his targets approach double digits again he could be the top overall play.
Unfortunately, I expect all of those plays to be quite popular, but I’ll wait to see ownership projections. There are seven skill position players who project as strong values, making it more of a guessing game than usual. Myles Gaskin leads the Dolphins’ backfield by committee. He is heavily targeted, but has not been given a single goal-line rush; those go to Jordan Howard. Howard has converted those opportunities for touchdowns in each game so far, but is averaging under 1.0 YPC. Both Matt Brieda and Chris Thompson are RB3 options who project as values but receive few touches.
UPDATE: DJ Chark is out. Chris Conely should step into his role and should be a top value on this slate at $2,200. The wide receiver position is the toughest to predict for this game with five players projected between 10 and 16 points. The Jaguars are spreading the ball around enough that there is no clear WR1, so I will be shuffling through their top three starters and sprinkling in the punt options.
DeVante Parker has been the top wideout for Miami, but this will be their first plus matchup so Preston Williams should have a chance to produce after a slow start. Isaiah Ford had five targets in Week 1 and seven in Week 2. He is criminally underpriced at just $3,000 on DK and is one of my favorite values.
JAX DST is way overpriced at $6,400 and I might not use them at all. Note that Josh Lambo is headed to IR but has not been replaced yet. Be sure to remove him from your player pool.
Because quarterbacks tend to go over rostered but they both project as such great plays, I’ll be looking to differentiate elsewhere by mixing in contrarian value plays and leaving salary on the table often. I don’t want any of my lineups with a chalky CPT to be heavily duplicated, so I’ll be reviewing by hand and removing obvious builds.
(UPDATE) Projected Roster Builds:
- Both QBs projected > 14% CPT(DK) and > 69% total
- Minshew is by far the most popular choice for FD MVP (Fade for leverage)
- Shenault and Cole offer the most leverage at CPT when comparing optimal projections versus projected ownership.
DK Values:
- Isaiah Ford ($3,000)
- Keelan Cole ($5,400)
DK Punts:
- Chris Conely ($2,200)
- Chris Thompson ($2,600)
DK Build Guide:
- Max 1 DST, Max 1 K, Max 2 total DST/K
- If CPT QB, force 2+ pass catchers
- Max 2 Depth WR/TE
- If CPT RB, negative boost or remove opposing DST/K
- If CPT WR/TE, boost their QB (won’t use for 100% of builds)
FD Values:
- Laviska Shenault Jr. ($7,500)
- Preston Williams ($8,000)
FD Punts:
- Tyler Eifert ($6,000)
- Isaiah Ford ($7,000)
- Chris Conely ($6,500)
FD Build Guide:
- No K MVP
- Consider no TE at MVP (If using Gesicki at MVP, I’d go under 5%)
- Max 2 WR/TE from same team
- Focus on 3-2 build construction
- No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
- Negative boost opposing QBs or Max1 QB (single QB wins far more)
- If WR CPT, boost QB
For more optimizer build rules to consider, check out the list for each DK and FD here.
