The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 5 Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks Sunday Night Football game.
| Minnesota | Rank | @ | Seattle | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spread | -7 | ||
| 25.5 | Implied Total | 32.5 | ||
| 26.5 | 16 | Points/Gm | 35.5 | 2 |
| 31.2 | 26 | Points All./Gm | 27.2 | 21 |
| 55.8 | 32 | Plays/Gm | 62.5 | 25 |
| 69.5 | 27 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 73.8 | 32 |
| 50.7% | 5 | Rush% | 40.8% | 18 |
| 49.3% | 28 | Pass% | 59.2% | 15 |
| 47.5% | 27 | Opp. Rush % | 30.2% | 1 |
| 52.5% | 6 | Opp. Pass % | 69.8% | 32 |
- Under Pete Carroll, Seattle has a league-best 20-3 record (17-5-1 ATS) in home prime time games.
- Seattle is 3-0 both straight up and against the spread in the three matchups with Carroll versus a Mike Zimmer-led Vikings team.
- The Vikings lead the league in rate of offensive plays to gain 20 or more yards (8.6%).
- D.K. Metcalf leads the league in fantasy points on targets over 15-yards downfield (52.6).
- Adam Thielen (45.7) and Justin Jefferson (38.4) rank second and fifth in the same category.
- Thielen leads the league in target rate on those targets at 54.8%.
- Minnesota (66.7%) and Seattle (61.1%) rank 30th and 31st in completion rate allowed on throws over 15 yards downfield. League average is 45.7%.
- Jefferson (3.48), Metcalf (2.94), and Thielen (2.84) are the top three wide receivers in yards per team target on the season.
- Seattle pass catchers lead the league in catchable target rate (87.5%). League average is 76.6%.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Quarterback
Russell Wilson (TRUST): Wilson regressed to 20 fantasy points last week as he finally did not throw four touchdown passes in a game for the first time despite still passing for 360 yards and 10.6 yards per pass attempt. The hits keep coming for Wilson in terms of schedule layout as the Vikings are 25th in passing points allowed (17.9 per game), 30th in yards per completion (12.8 yards), and 31st in yards per pass attempt (8.6 Y/A) to opposing passers.
Kirk Cousins (TRUST): Cousins is 33rd among all quarterbacks in dropbacks per game (29.0), throwing 27 or fewer passes in all four games this season. That should hopefully change this week as Seattle has forced opponents to throw a league-high 200 passes through four weeks with a low of 44 pass attempts. If we can get Cousins to double his dropbacks, we could have something here as Cousins is third in the NFL in yards per pass attempt (8.8 Y/A) and leads the NFL in yards per completion (14.2 yards). Every quarterback to face Seattle has scored at least 20 fantasy points and has been a top-12 scorer. Worried about the prime time narrative for Cousins? He has actually been a top-12 scorer in 12 of his 23 night kicks.
Running Back
Dalvin Cook: After 29 touches through two weeks, Cook has gobbled up 24 and 29 touches the past two weeks for 199 and 146 yards. Cook has found the end zone every week this season and multiple times twice. That has masked a reduction in passing opportunity as Cook has just seven catches for 40 yards on the season with more than two targets in just one game. Seattle is third in the league in rushing points allowed per game (7.4) because everyone has been forced to throw heavily against them. Which is why they rank 20th in receiving points allowed to backfields (11.7 per game). Even with point-chasing script potential, this game has carnival potential and Cook is an RB1 option.
Chris Carson: Carson had no limitations last week playing through a questionable tag, handling 19 touches for 100 yards and his first two rushing touchdowns of the season. Carson has reached the end zone in some capacity in three of the first four games and has at least three receptions in each game. Minnesota is 24th in rushing points allowed per game (18.4 points) to backfields. As a large home favorite attached to a 30-plus point implied team total, Carson is a top-15 option.
Wide Receiver
Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson (TRUST): Both Thielen and Jefferson went over 100-yards last week. Thrusting Jefferson into playing time on the perimeter has seen him average a robust 25.3 yards per catch the past two weeks with seven catches of 20-plus yards.
Thielen is the kind of receiver we like for fantasy because a high rate of his targets are downfield and he is second in the NFL in end zone targets. The one potential bugaboo for both of these guys is the limitations of this offense from an overall offensive play volume stance, and subsequently a passing volume one. As mentioned with Cousins, the matchup here should coax the Vikings into playing more aggressively and the matchup could not be better for an opposing wideout.
70.7% of all completions against Seattle have gone to wide receivers, the highest rate in the league, while 71.5% of the fantasy points allowed by the Seahawks have gone to receivers, also the highest rate.
D.K. Metcalf (TRUST): Metcalf has exactly four receptions in each game this season while leading the league with 25.2 yards per catch. Last week was the first game in which Metcalf was held out of the end zone, but he has at least 92 yards receiving in each game on the strength of that gaudy yards per grab rate. The Vikings have allowed 19 receptions of 20 or more yards, 30th in the league, trailing only Seattle (20) and Atlanta (21).
Tyler Lockett (TRUST): After Lockett had at least eight targets for three straight games for the first time in his career, we were feeling spoiled as Lockett caught just 2-of-4 targets for 39 yards last week in Miami. Still running 62% of his routes from the slot, Lockett will draw rookie Jeff Gladney when on the interior, who has allowed a team-high 16 receptions and 263 receiving yards in coverage this season. Despite the down Week 4, go right back to Lockett.
David Moore: Two years ago, Moore was a hot preseason best ball target and we are seeing why to start this season. Despite having three or fewer catches in every game this season, Moore has reeled in 10-of-11 targets for 17.3 yards per catch and two touchdowns. Moore is Hail Mary FLEX in seasonal formats, but an upside target in single-game DFS.
Tight End
Greg Olsen: Olsen is averaging a career-low 8.6 yards per reception and has been held to 35 yards or fewer in three of four games to start the season, but has managed to be the TE14 or higher in three of four games in PPR formats on the strength of catching four or more passes in three while the position is still a wasteland for reception floors. Olsen is not an upside TE1, but a floor-based TE2 that you hope finds the end zone.
MIN TEs: The Vikings still hate us here as Irv Smith Jr. has run a pass route on 53.5% of team drop backs and Kyle Rudolph 52.6%. Seattle has also nuked tight ends to start, with tight ends catching a combined 12-of 22 targets for 150 yards and zero touchdowns through four weeks. Both Rudolph and Smith are low-TE2 options and best left for single-game DFS lineups.
More Week 5 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
TB at CHI| ARI at NYJ | LVR at KC | BUF at TEN | DEN at NE | LAR at WFT | CAR at ATL | CIN at BAL | JAX at HOU | PHI at PIT | MIA at SF | NYG at DAL | IND at CLE | MIN at SEA | LAC at NO
