NFL Referee Assignment for Week 1, Impact on NFL Betting

We tend to focus only on NFL referees after a controversial decision or a bad no-call.

Yet, each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.

Understanding how a game will be officiated can have immense value in the betting market.

A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer has a far different impact on game flow than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.

Referee style one week may hide a team's weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference will compound that weakness the next week.

Same team. Different outcomes.

Throughout this 2026 NFL season, we'll help to identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to help you gain an edge when placing a bet.

NFL Referee Assignments for Week 1

NFL Week 1 Referee Betting Impact

Alex Moore's Impact on Bills at Texans

The Buffalo Bills open their 2026 campaign on the road in Houston, the third consecutive season playing the Texans in a venue that has troubled Josh Allen throughout his career.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Alex Moore will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• Moore's crew led the NFL in penalty-per-game average in his rookie season as a head referee in 2025.
• Moore's crew placed an above-average emphasis on offensive holding and false starts, ranking second & co-ranking third in those two categories.
• Moore's crew went overboard on early downs, with a disproportionate percentage of their overall penalties called on first and second down. They pivoted to a more “let 'em play” approach, however, on third downs.
• Moore's crew ranked No. 1 in calling roughing the passer in 2025, with an NFL-leading 92% of infractions assessed on the road team.
• The Bills and Texans both finished 2025 as top-10 penalized teams for offensive holding, ranking third and tenth, respectively.
• The Bills ranked 29th in pre-snap penalties per game last season, which will be key on Sunday in a hostile environment if they can maintain that discipline.
• The Texans offense was a top-10 beneficiary of automatic first downs via penalty in 2025, primarily through defensive holding and illegal contact infractions, categories in which they ranked first and second as beneficiaries.

The Bottom Line:

• Home teams were 10-6 on the moneyline and ATS in Moore-officiated contests in 2025.

This is a tough opening assignment for the Bills, and it is difficult to envision a victory given their ugly recent past in Houston.

Offensive holding will be the most impactful penalty category in the game for both teams.

Based on scorelines between these teams in recent years and the fact that we should see elevated offensive holding and false start calls early in the season, the under would be a logical way to approach from a totals perspective.

As for the winner, until the Bills prove they can handle business at NRG Stadium, the Texans as a slight home underdog is too good to pass up, making them the selection in a down-to-the-wire contest.

» Bet the Texans +1.5

Shawn Hochuli's Impact on Packers at Vikings

The Packers and Vikings are looking to establish themselves in a crowded NFC North with a divisional win right out of the gates. The Vikings debut their new-look offense while the Packers enter the contest minus some of their best players.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Shawn Hochuli will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• No referee has recorded a higher per-game average in the false start-offensive holding combination than Hochuli over the past five NFL seasons.
• Hochuli ranked No. 1 in false start per-game average in 2025.
• Offensive holding and false starts accounted for 46% of the Vikings' overall penalties in 2025, the worst performance in this area in the Kevin O'Connell era.
• The Vikings ranked as the No. 1 penalized home team for false starts per game in 2025. They need to fix that if they want to be in playoff contention in 2026.
• The Vikings ended 2025 ranking seventh in offensive holding penalties per game. However, they recorded one of the largest home versus road splits of any team in this category, and they need to continue the impressive home numbers in this category in 2026.
• A disproportionate percentage of the Packers' false start and offensive holding penalties were in road contests last season, primarily because Green Bay was a top-10 penalized road team for offensive holding, ranking seventh.

The Bottom Line:

• Divisional games are 31-16-1 (67%) under in Hochuli's career, including a 4-1 under record in 2025.
• Divisional home teams are 18-28-2 ATS (40%) in Hochuli's career.
• The Vikings are 5-1 all-time in Hochuli-officiated contests.

Shawn Hochuli's under record is noteworthy in these situations.

Based on last season, both offensive lines loom as a potential problem for their respective teams.

Green Bay, in particular, goes into the game with offensive line issues, and that potential liability will be compounded by playing in one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL.

The addition of Kyler Murray adds a level of intrigue to this matchup, and he will have ample offensive weapons and a great coaching staff to lean on, far better than anything he had in Arizona.

Minnesota is banking on these factors to rejuvenate Murray's career and, in doing so, propel an extremely talented team back into the playoffs after a lackluster 2025.

That journey begins versus their rival on Sunday, making the Minnesota Vikings the selection in this contest.

» Bet the Vikings -1.5

Clay Martin's Impact on Broncos at Chiefs

The opening week concludes with a fascinating Monday Night Football divisional matchup a season after the Broncos ended the Chiefs' nine-year reign in the AFC West. Kansas City is looking to reclaim its rightful place as the team to beat in arguably the league's toughest division with a win out of the gate.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Clay Martin will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• The Chiefs ranked fifth in penalty per game average last season. Kansas City recorded the biggest road vs home splits, ranking as the No. 1 penalized road team versus an impressive 27th in penalty average at home.
• The Chiefs ranked second in offensive holding penalties per game in 2025, continuing a trend over the past five seasons.
• Martin's crew place an above average emphasis on offensive penalties.
• Martin's crew ranked first and third in 2024 and 2025 in per-game average for offensive holding.
• Defensive pass interference penalties have not been a major point of emphasis for Martin the last couple of seasons. That is offset by elevated defensive holding penalties, an area he ranked second overall in 2025.
• The Broncos defense ranked as the No. 1 penalized unit for defensive pass interference in 2025, whereas the Chiefs had zero defensive pass interference calls against them at Arrowhead Stadium. If form holds with Martin's minimal focus on this penalty category, it's a break for an ultra-aggressive Broncos defense.
• Martin-officiated contests averaged the fewest turnovers per game in 2025.

The Bottom Line:

• Divisional home teams are 17-31 ATS (36%) in Martin's career.
• The Chiefs are a perfect 8-0 on the moneyline in Martin-officiated contests, but were only 3-4-1 ATS in those eight games.

There have to be some question marks around the effectiveness of both quarterbacks, who enter the contest off serious leg injuries that ended their 2025 campaigns.

How the Chiefs' much-maligned offensive line holds up will be key to the game, and in turn, to keeping Patrick Mahomes out of harm's way.

Kansas City has the championship pedigree, but its star players like Travis Kelce and Chris Jones are another year older.

Conversely, the Broncos have the advantage on both lines of scrimmage and boast arguably the best defense in the NFL.

That defense will test Mahomes' mobility and the aforementioned Chiefs offensive line, creating havoc up front and a lower-scoring contest, making the Broncos +2.5 points the selection on Monday Night Football.

» Bet the Broncos +2.5

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2026 NFL Referees Stats & Their Historical Betting Trends

A comprehensive breakdown for every NFL Referee working games for the 2026 season, plus a deeper look at their penalty-calling historical trends, statistics, and how it may impact betting opportunities, plus the pace of gameplay.

Adrian Hill: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 57-55 ATS in true home games with Hill officiating.
• Hill is 62-50-1 to the under in his career.
• In divisional games, Hill is 19-12-1 to the under in his career.

Alan Eck: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 33-16 on the money line and 28-21 ATS in Eck's head referee career.
• Eck was 11-6 to the over in the 2025 season.

Alex Kemp: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 65-67-2 ATS in Kemp's career.
• Divisional home teams are 19-22 on the money line and 17-24 ATS in Kemp's career.
• Totals in Kemp's career divisional games sit at .500 with a 20-20-1 record.

Alex Moore: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams were 10-6 on the money line and 10-6 ATS with Moore in 2025, his first season as a head referee.

Bill Vinovich: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• True home teams are 57-73-4 ATS with Vinovich since 2018, including a 7-10 ATS record in 2025.
• Vinovich is 73-59-3 to the under since 2018, although he went 11-6 over in 2025.

Brad Allen: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 83-59-1 on the money line with Allen since 2016.
• Home teams are 73-67-3 ATS in those Allen-officiated games since 2016.
• Allen is 83-60-1 to the under since 2016.

Brad Rogers: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• True home teams are 53-54 on the money line and 54-53 ATS in Rogers' career.
• Rogers is 58-50 over the total in his career.
• Rogers is 22-20 over in career divisional games.

Carl Cheffers: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 101-64 on the money line since 2016 with Cheffers officiating.
• Home teams are 87-75-3 ATS with Cheffers since the start of the 2016 NFL season.
• Divisional home teams are 33-22-1 ATS with Cheffers since 2016.

Clay Martin: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Martin is 64-61-3 under in his career.
• True home teams in Martin's career are 64-61 on the money line and 55-67-3 ATS.
• Divisional home teams are 21-27 on the money line & 17-31 ATS in Martin-officiated contests.

Clete Blakeman: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 77-84-3 ATS with Blakeman since the start of 2016.
• Divisional home teams are 31-28 on the money line since 2016 in Blakeman-officiated contests.
• Blakeman is 30-29 over the total in divisional games since 2016, including a 4-2 under mark in 2025.

Craig Wrolstad: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 81-80 on the money line and 67-91-3 ATS since 2016 in Wrolstad-officiated games.
• Home underdogs are 26-45-2 ATS with Wrolstad since 2016, including 5-4 ATS in 2025.

John Hussey: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 113-51 on the money line with Hussey since 2016.
• Home teams are 98-61-5 ATS with Hussey since 2016.
• Home teams were 11-6 on the money line and 9-8 ATS with Hussey in 2025.

Land Clark: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 38-55-2 ATS in Clark's career.
• Clark is 50-45-1 under the total in his career, although Clark was 10-6 over in 2025.

Ron Torbert: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Torbert-officiated games are 75-60-1 under the total since 2018.
• True home teams are 58-73-1 ATS in Torbert-officiated contests since 2018.

Scott Novak: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• Home teams are 44-64-3 ATS in Novak's career, the lowest ATS percentage of any referee since his debut in 2019.
• Divisional home teams are 13-22-1 ATS in Novak's career.

Shawn Hochuli: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• True home teams are 58-68-4 ATS in Hochuli's career, including a 7-10 ATS record in 2025.
• Hochuli is 74-55-2 under the total in his career.
• In divisional games, Hochuli is 31-16-1 under the total in his career.

Shawn Smith: Referee Penalty Trends & How It May Impact Betting

• True home teams are 61-62-5 ATS in Smith's career.
• Smith officiated contests sit at .500 on totals, with a 65-65-1 record in his career, including a 9-8 under record in 2025.