In four of his final six games last season, Rico Dowdle had 100-yard rushing games, so his success should come as no surprise.
However, I don’t think many could have forecasted his first 200-yard rushing performance.
Dowdle was the running back bright spot of the week as usage dropped overall for the position, likely as a result of the increased passing volume and efficiency.
Also, it was partially because the Eagles abandoned the running game.
Running backs averaged a season low 20 carries per game.
However, efficiency remained solid at 4.5 yards per carry compared to earlier in the season, when running backs had low volume and poor efficiency.
Five running backs hit 100 rushing yards in Week 5, including Quinshon Judkins and Jacory Croskey-Merritt, the second week in a row that two rookie running backs reached triple digits.
Last week's pick, De’Von Achane, fell shy as he averaged 1.6 yards per carry, but the running back receiving parlay hit for a +1685 for anyone who tailed.
NFL Weekly Rushing Leaders, 2025:
| Week | Running Back | Rushing Yards | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derrick Henry | 169 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Jonathan Taylor | 165 | Denver Broncos |
| 3 | David Montgomery | 151 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 4 | Ashton Jeanty | 138 | Chicago Bears |
| 5 | Rico Dowdle | 206 | Miami Dolphins |
Most Week 6 Rushing Yards Prediction (Sunday): Rico Dowdle (+1500)
I wasn't going to chase the breakout player, but Dowdle is listed ninth on the odds list, which may be a mispriced.
Dowdle handled 85% of the running back rush attempts and has a solid case for a revenge narrative.
Last year, Dowdle was clearly better than Ezekiel Elliott, but he did not receive the bulk of the carries until Week 12.
There was even a point in the season when owner Jerry Jones wanted to make a splash at the running back position and activated Dalvin Cook to play alongside Elliott, and Dowdle was scratched with an illness.
Breece Hall averaged 8.1 yards per carry against the Cowboys last week, who struggle to stop the run and the pass.
The Panthers establish the run on first down as they are -9% pass rate above expectation, which provides a runway for Dowdle to compile carries.
Dowdle had 23 carries in a game in which the Panthers fell behind 17-0.
Game script should not be an issue for the former Cowboy running back.
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Week 6 Rushing Yards Longshot Bet: Rams Touchdown Props
- Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown (-175)
- Kyren Williams 2+ Touchdowns (+330)
- Blake Corum Anytime Touchdown (+330)
The Baltimore Ravens are down bad in terms of injuries and have allowed 37 or more points in four of the opening five games of the season.
Nick Chubb averaged 5.5 yards per carry on Sunday, well above his season average, and scored a touchdown.
As mentioned in Rich Hribar’s Worksheet, the Ravens have allowed 8 touchdowns to opposing backfields and are allowing 8.0 yards per carry against man/gap runs.
Kyren Williams has the third-highest rate of man/gap runs.
Williams for most rushing yards was a consideration, but he does not have a run greater than 20 yards this season and is more of a compiler than an explosive runner.
