Bills vs. Bucs Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 11

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 11 matchup between the Bills and Bucs.

Find a breakdown of every Week 11 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

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Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Josh Allen: Allen had a certifiably bad real game on Sunday that still produced fantasy points.

Allen was 15 of 23 for 121 yards (5.3 Y/A) with an interception through three quarters in Miami on Sunday, including a bad interception in the end zone.

Allen actually has the second-lowest rating in the red zone this season (76.8) due to a league-high 3 interceptions in that area.

He also lost a fumble.

Chasing points in the fourth quarter, Allen was 13 of 17 for 185 yards (10.9 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and was able to salvage a QB10 (19.3 points) scoring week.

Allen has been inside the top-10 weekly scorers in two of his past five games.

Since Week 5, he has been the QB11 in expected points per game (18.8).

Of course, he still possesses immense upside when it all comes together like it did just the week prior against the Chiefs.

You are sticking with Allen as a home favorite in managed leagues as a QB1.

This is an intriguing matchup from a DFS angle because of Tampa Bay's aggressive nature on defense.

They are blitzing 30.1% of the time (6th).

Allen is averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt against the blitz (9th) with an 8.2% touchdown rate (12th).

The Bills were using more play action out of their bye before falling behind on Sunday.

On play action passes, Allen has completed 77.3% (5th) for 8.5 Y/A (8th), and a 6.1% touchdown rate (13th).

The last defense Buffalo faced with wide splits against play action was Kansas City.

In that game, Allen was 8 of 8 for 94 yards (11.8 Y/A) on play-action passes.

Tampa Bay is in the same vein but has faced the fewest play-action passes in the league.

Against play-action passes, Tampa Bay has allowed a 73.2% completion rate (26th) for 10.6 Y/A (31st) and a 7.1% touchdown rate (25th).

On non-play action passes, the Bucs allow a 64.2% completion rate (14th), 6.7 Y/A (15th), and a 3.5% touchdown rate (9th).

Buffalo is also expected to be without Dalton Kincaid, who has been their best pass catcher this season.

The last game Kincaid missed was Week 6 in Atlanta, when Allen completed 57.7% of his passes for 6.9 Y/A and 2 interceptions.

All 5 of Allen’s interceptions this season have come with Kincaid off the field.

Kincaid was the largest beneficiary of those play-action passes, drawing a target on 34.8% of his routes on play action with 4.74 yards per route.

His absence could be huge here.

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield also ended up getting there for fantasy purposes last week with some late-game production, but Sunday was another lackluster outing overall for this passing game.

He ended up throwing 3 passing scores for the first time since Week 1, which bolstered his afternoon.

But Mayfield only threw for 6.3 yards per pass attempt, his third game in a row below 6.5 yards per attempt.

Mayfield is now 21st in completion rate (64.1%) and 19th in yards per attempt (7.0).

The injuries to his pass catchers are still present, and Mayfield has worked through a knee injury and an oblique injury.

Those ailments may have affected his mobility.

Mayfield does not have a rushing attempt in any of his past three games after rushing 3.7 times for 26.3 yards per game prior.

Tampa Bay has gotten off to slow starts in all three weeks.

On the road in Buffalo, they could be chasing points early.

Mayfield should be pressed to put up points here, and there is an outcome where this shoots out, but I would prefer to use him as a floor-based QB2 here.

The Bills have not allowed a passer to finish higher than QB19 in a week since Lamar Jackson in Week 1.

We will talk about their run defense in a bit, but that includes Patrick Mahomes (10.5 points) and Drake Maye (12.1 points).

Buffalo is 10th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.393) and fifth in passing points allowed per game (10.6).

Running Back

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