The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 11 matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs.
Find a breakdown of every Week 11 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Kansas City | Rank | @ | Denver | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | Spread | 3.5 | ||
| 24.0 | Implied Total | 20.5 | ||
| 26.1 | 9 | Points/Gm | 23.5 | 17 |
| 17.7 | 4 | Points All./Gm | 17.3 | 3 |
| 64.2 | 7 | Plays/Gm | 63.1 | 12 |
| 54.1 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.4 | 21 |
| 5.8 | 9 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 18 |
| 5.4 | 17 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.3 | 1 |
| 42.39% | 17 | Rush% | 42.79% | 16 |
| 57.61% | 16 | Pass% | 57.21% | 17 |
| 44.76% | 21 | Opp. Rush % | 40.71% | 11 |
| 55.24% | 12 | Opp. Pass % | 59.29% | 22 |
- Denver has won 10 consecutive home games, the longest active streak in the league.
- Opponents against the Chiefs have scored 38.5 fewer points than their implied totals, the lowest differential in the league.
- Opponents against Denver have scored 28.25 fewer points than their implied totals, the 3rd lowest in the league (Houston is between these two teams).
- The Chiefs are one of three teams without an offensive play of 50-plus yards. The Browns and Titans are the others.
- The Broncos are 29th in offensive success rate (39.5%).
- The Chiefs are 4th in offensive success rate (46.5%).
- Kansas City has punted on 26.2% of their possessions, 2nd in the league.
- Denver has punted on 44.9% of their possessions, ahead of only the Browns (49%).
- The Chiefs have scored on 50% of their drives, 2nd in the league.
- Denver has scored on 33.9% of their drives, 26th in the league.
- Kansas City is averaging 2.42 points per drive on the road (11th) compared to 3.11 at home (2nd).
- Opponents have converted a league-low 28.1% of their third downs against Denver.
- Opponents have converted a league-low 37.5% of their red zone trips into touchdowns against Denver.
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Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes exits the bye coming off a letdown week against Buffalo, where he completed only 15 of 34 passes (44.1%) for 250 yards with 0 touchdowns and an interception.
The 10.5 fantasy points were his fewest in a game this season.
The Bills used 6 defensive backs on the field for 68.4% of their snaps, the second-highest rate for a team in a game this season.
They blitzed Mahomes on only 7.9% of his dropbacks, sending five or more pass rushers on only 4 snaps all game.
The Bills played a 2-man front on a season-high 21.1% of their snaps
We have seen Lou Anarumo deploy a similar approach with success against Mahomes.
Unfortunately, Mahomes and Matt Nagy did not adjust and played into Sean McDermott’s hands.
Nagy and the Chiefs have talked all year about pushing the ball downfield, and that approach backfired.
Against all of that coverage, Mahomes still averaged a season-high 14.5 air yards per attempt.
A season-high 55.9% of his passes were 10 or more yards downfield (his average rate is 31.6%), and 32.4% were 20 or more yards downfield (his average is 14.2%).
The Bills also got to Mahomes without blitzing or playing all that coverage, since Kansas City never developed a quick passing game.
Mahomes was pressured on a season-high 47.4% of his dropbacks.
For as great a season as Mahomes has had, he has struggled this year when pressured.
Mahomes has completed 42.5% of his passes under pressure, which is 27th in the league.
He has a 20.7% inaccurate throw rate under pressure, second-to-last in the league and ahead of only Caleb Williams (22.4%).
That is relevant here because Denver is third in the NFL in pressure rate (42.6%) and leads the league in sack rate (12.4%).
Mahomes faced this defense once last year, completing 28 of 42 passes for 266 yards (6.3 Y/A) with a touchdown and 4 sacks.
In the past two matchups between these teams, Mahomes has had sack rates of 8.7% and 7.3%.
His base rate over that span is 5.8%.
In three meetings against Denver over the past two years, Mahomes has scored 17.3, 5.6, and 16.5 fantasy points.
Denver has allowed a 57.1% completion rate (2nd), 6.4 yards per pass attempt (5th), and a league-best 2.5% touchdown rate.
I would not completely run away from Mahomes here, but this is not a spot where we are circling a spike week, either.
If you have read the other games up until this point, you have gathered that this is a strong quarterback week for matchups.
I do not know how you may have played in place of Mahomes last week on bye, but there are pivots this week if you do continue to go with another option.
That said, you do not have to hide, especially if you need that roster spot for another position and plan to use Mahomes weekly the rest of the year.
Denver has allowed 15-plus passing points to Jaxson Dart (21.3), Jalen Hurts (19.2), and Daniel Jones (16.6) this season.
Denver is also expected to still be without Patrick Surtain and will be missing Alex Singleton this week, as well.
They have not been tested in the past two weeks without Surtain, facing Davis Mills and Geno Smith.
Bo Nix: Nix is also coming off a rough outing in his last game, connecting on 16 of 28 passes (57.1%) for 150 yards (5.4 Y/A) with a touchdown and 2 interceptions against the Raiders.
Whereas Mahomes had a hiccup amidst a strong season to date, this has been where Nix has operated for most of his second season.
Nix is averaging 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 29th in the league.
He is ahead of only Kyler Murray, Cam Ward, Bryce Young, and Dillon Gabriel among qualifiers.
His 10.0 yards per completion are 28th in the league.
On throws 10 or more yards downfield, Nix has completed 39.8% (41 of 103) of those throws, ahead of only Young (37.8%), Ward (37.6%), and Gabriel (36.2%).
For fantasy, Nix is 24th in passing points per attempt (0.403).
His QB1 scoring weeks have come against the Giants, Bengals, Colts, and Cowboys, all identifiable spots.
This is a tougher matchup and a spot where Nix is a QB2.
The Chiefs are eighth in passing points allowed per attempt (0.380) and fourth in passing points allowed per game (10.5).
If they have a weakness, it is against the play-action pass.
Against play action, Kansas City has allowed a league-high 85.2% completion rate and a league-high 11.4 yards per pass attempt.
Against non-play action passes, they allow a league-low 5.7 yards per pass attempt.
Nix is ninth in rate of play action (27.4%).
We could also see Nix use his legs more in this matchup.
The Chiefs are 29th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks (26.0 per game).
Running Back
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More Week 11 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Jets @ Patriots | Thursday Night Football |
| Commanders @ Dolphins | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bucs @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Titans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Steelers | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Seahawks @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| 49ers @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Browns | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Chiefs @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Lions @ Eagles | Sunday Night Football |
| Cowboys @ Raiders | Monday Night Football |
