Super Bowl 60 is here, with the Patriots and Seahawks competing for the biggest prize in football.
Let's look at two of the best bets for the big game.
Sharp Football Analysis has every angle of Patriots vs. Seahawks covered in our Super Bowl 60 Hub.
Best Super Bowl 60 Bet: New England Patriots Under 20.5 Points (-125)
The Patriots had one of the top offenses in the NFL this season.
According to Sumer Sports, New England is tied for first in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.13), first in EPA per pass (0.29), tied for 17th in EPA per rush (-0.03), and fourth in success rate (46.93%).
They’re also stellar in traditional metrics.
Per TruMedia, New England is tied for third in yards per play (5.9), fifth in rushing yards per game (129.2), sixth in passing yards per game (235.1), tied for first in net yards per pass attempt (8.1), and tied for eighth in scoring offense (25.0 points per game).
The Patriots beat whoever was put in front of them.
However, their fourth-place schedule made for a fairly soft runout.
Understandably, they weren’t as fearsome against the top defenses.
New England played only five games against top-10 defenses in EPA.
Specifically, they faced the Saints in Week 6 (9th in EPA allowed per play), the Browns in Week 8 (5th in EPA allowed per play), the Chargers in the Wild Card Round (tied for 6th in EPA allowed per play), the Texans in the Divisional Round (1st in EPA allowed per play), and the Broncos in the Conference Championship Round (tied for 6th in EPA allowed per play).
The Patriots scored 25 points against the Saints, 32 against the Browns, 16 against the Chargers, 28 against the Texans, and 10 against the Broncos, averaging 22 points per game and a median of 25.
They held their own against quality defenses, but a pick-six inflated the 28 points against the Texans, and their other two efforts north of 20.5 points were much earlier in the season.
In three playoff games against top-10 defenses in EPA allowed per play, New England went under their Super Bowl 60 team total of 20.5 points twice, and they have another challenging matchup against the Seahawks.
Seattle is second in EPA allowed per play (-0.12), eighth in EPA allowed per pass (-0.10), first in EPA allowed per rush (-0.15), and third in success rate allowed (39.25%).
They are also tied for third in yards allowed per play (4.7), first in yards allowed per rush (3.8), third in net yards allowed per pass (5.7), and first in points allowed per game (17.11).
They played six games against teams in the top 10 in EPA, all against the Rams (tied for 1st in EPA per play) and the 49ers (tied for 6th in EPA per play).
They held San Francisco to 17, 3, and 6 points in their three meetings, and Seattle yielded 21, 37, and 27 points to Los Angeles.
The familiarity of playing a division opponent creates an unusual dynamic.
Nevertheless, the Seahawks stuffed the 49ers in a locker, and the Rams were first in yards per play (6.1) and scoring offense (29.3 points per game) this season.
They’re a different animal than any other offense.
The Patriots’ offense isn’t as potent as LA’s, and their postseason form leaves something to be desired.
Moreover, New England’s last three games against top-10 defenses were after rookie left tackle Will Campbell returned from injured reserve.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Campbell played 452 pass-blocking snaps in 12 games before landing on IR.
He tallied a 76.1 PFF pass-blocking grade, allowing 5 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, 16 hurries, and 25 pressures in those 452 pass-blocking snaps.
The rookie tackle hasn’t matched that production since returning.
In four games and 127 pass-blocking snaps since returning from IR, Campbell has garnered a 45.5 PFF pass-blocking grade while coughing up 3 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, 7 hurries, and 12 pressures.
As a result, Drake Maye has been under siege, absorbing precisely 5 sacks in each playoff contest.
The Patriots have averaged only 18 points per game with a median of 16 in three games against top-10 defenses in EPA allowed per play since Campbell returned.
Additionally, the bossman, Warren Sharp, shared some eye-catching defensive tendencies deployed against Maye and the Patriots since the Bills rematch in Week 15.
Sean McDermott did something in the Bills rematch vs the Patriots that was critical to beating Drake Maye
it was so successful, coaches since have tried to copy it
a fascinating look at what he did in Week 15
and how it may unlock the key to beating NE in the Super Bowl pic.twitter.com/gJq09oHHN4
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) February 3, 2026
The Seahawks aren’t a get-right matchup for New England’s offense, and Seattle’s elite defense should hold the Patriots under 20.5 points in Super Bowl 60.
Best Super Bowl 60 Bet: Over 7.5 Points in the First Quarter (-102)
Frankly, I went into analyzing the first quarter total expecting to prefer the under.
The Chiefs and Eagles combined for only 7 points in the first quarter of Super Bowl 59, and the Chiefs and 49ers produced 0 points in the first quarter of Super Bowl 58.
However, since Super Bowl 50, six of 10 games have produced over 7.5 points in the first quarter.
Those games averaged 7.3 points in the first quarter, with a median of 10.
Looking at New England’s and Seattle’s scoring in the first quarter against quality opponents tilts the scale toward taking the over.
In the Patriots’ five games against top-10 defenses in EPA allowed per play, the first quarters yielded 20, 10, 0, 10, and 7 points, averaging 9.4 points with a median of 10.
Still, taking the over on 7.5 points in the first quarter goes against my expectations that the Patriots will score fewer than 20.5 points in the game, creating a negative correlation if New England does the heavy lifting in the first quarter.
Fortunately, the Seahawks have the more compelling case for getting the first quarter over 7.5 points, and they can do the bulk or all of the requisite scoring to make that a successful wager.
In Seattle’s six games against top-10 offenses in EPA per play this season, the first quarter has featured 7, 17, 10, 7, 17, and 13 points, averaging 11.8 points with a median of 11.5.
Four of those six games went over 7.5 points in the first quarter.
Seattle’s offense doesn’t have an easy assignment, either.
The Patriots are 11th in EPA allowed per play (-0.05) this year.
The Seahawks played six games against top-10 defenses in EPA allowed per play, facing the Jaguars in Week 6, the Texans in Week 7, the Rams in Week 11, the Vikings in Week 13, the Rams in Week 16, and the Rams in the Conference Championship Round.
Those games had 6, 14, 17, 0, 10, and 13 points in the first quarter, averaging 10 points with a median of 11.5.
Thus, Seattle’s six games against top-10 defenses in EPA allowed per play went over 7.5 points in the first quarter four times.
The Seahawks and Patriots can clear the low bar of exceeding 7.5 points in the first quarter.
Given my position on New England under 20.5 points in the game, Seattle will ideally do most of the scoring to send the first quarter over 7.5 points.
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