The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the New York Jets could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
New York Jets 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-All three of the wins by the Jets in 2025 were against non-playoff teams with a losing record. They went 0-8 against playoff teams and 0-7 against teams with a winning record. In 2026, the Jets have the fifth-easiest strength of schedule, giving them more of those cupcake games.
-The Jets were 31st in red-zone touchdown rate at 44.7% (57.3% was the NFL average) in 2025. Garrett Wilson’s 395 receiving yards led the Jets despite playing only seven games. Better health from Wilson will give the team their top weapon in scoring territory, and they also spent first-round picks on Omar Cooper and Kenyon Sadiq. Furthermore, they traded for quarterback Geno Smith and drafted Cade Klubnik in the fourth round. Justin Fields (257 dropbacks), Tyrod Taylor (169 dropbacks), and Brady Cook (179 dropbacks) took snaps at quarterback for the team last year. Among 43 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks, they ranked 33rd, 34th, and 43rd in EPA per play.
-Gang Green was 32nd in turnovers forced (4) last year. They were also 21st in turnovers lost (23). As a result, they were 32nd in turnover net EPA. The Jets invested heavily in their defense via free-agent signings, such as David Onyemata, Demario Davis, Joseph Ossai, and Nahshon Wright, as well as trading for T’Vondre Sweat and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Additionally, they spent the second pick in the draft on David Bailey and used a second-round pick on D’Angelo Ponds.
Reasons for the Under
-As bad as the quarterback play was for the Jets last year, Smith isn’t a lock to elevate the performance at the position this year. Among 33 qualified quarterbacks, he was 32nd in EPA per play, worse than both Fields and Taylor. Smith was 39th out of 43 quarterbacks with 150 dropbacks last year in EPA per play.
-New York’s kicking was lights out last season. The Jets were first in field goal percentage (96.6%), first in extra-point percentage (100.0%), and fifth in field goal EPA. Nick Folk has led the NFL in field goal percentage for three straight years, but he posted an 86.5% mark as recently as 2022.
-Aaron Glenn had a few notable numbers that didn’t paint his first season as an NFL head coach in the most favorable light. The Jets were 29th in penalty margin, 27th in penalty yard margin, and 26th in net penalty EPA. New York was also 26th in EPA based on fourth-down decisions.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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Warren Sharp’s 600+ page full-color PDF, the 2026 Football Preview, is unlike anything you have read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps and stat pages, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought processes abound in every team chapter and article.
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Warren Sharp's book shares insights into the players, coaches, teams, and philosophies with one goal: to prepare you for the 2026 NFL season with the smartest information delivered in the fastest, most direct way possible for optimal reviewing and retention.
- Team Chapters previews are in-depth, data-driven & full of actionable info
- Fantasy Football player profiles, predictions, and ranks
- Vegas Odds forecast team wins, division rankings, lines for all 2026 games
- Coaching strategic advice for teams, play-calling analysis & team tendencies
- Front Office Analysis positional spending, roster construction & cap analysis
- Reasons to bet over/under win totals & analysis of futures betting market
- Rookie draft class deep dive into impact for every team
- Rankings for every positional unit on every team with analysis
- Penalty analysis for all 32 NFL teams
