The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the Detroit Lions could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
Detroit Lions 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-Injuries ravaged the Lions last season. The offense was 15th in player health, but rookie guard Tate Ratledge was their only offensive lineman who played in all 17 games, and Penei Sewell was the only other offensive lineman to exceed 15 games for them. Furthermore, the injuries to Detroit’s defense were so severe that the club ranked 32nd in defensive player health and 31st in total player health.
-The Lions had the best point differential (+68) in the NFC North and finished with a winning record (9-8) last year. Nevertheless, they finished in the NFC North’s basement and will play a fourth-place schedule this year. It’s not merely a fourth-place schedule, either. The Lions have the easiest strength of schedule in 2026. Detroit went 7-3 in games against non-playoff opponents last year and can stack wins against a soft schedule this year.
-Detroit suffered from a double-whammy of unfortunate field goal and fumble luck last season. They made just 79.4% of their own field goals (27th), while their opponents made 93.3% of theirs (29th). They were also 32nd in fumble luck (-7.0 net compared to expectation), losing 3 of their 7 fumbles while their opponents lost just 6 of their 24 fumbles.
Reasons for the Under
-Last year’s lousy injury luck could leak into this year. Brian Branch suffered a torn Achilles against the Cowboys on December 4 (Week 14). Kerby Joseph missed the final 11 games of last year with a knee injury. He’s received offseason treatment on his knee, but his availability is unclear. Free-agent additions Chuck Clark and Christian Izien, as well as incumbent safety Avonte Maddox, project to fill in for any games Branch and Joseph miss to start this season.
-Al-Quadin Muhammad was 16th among 184 qualified pass rushers last year in pressure rate and recorded a career-high 11 sacks. He parlayed his pass-rush productivity into a one-year deal in free agency with the Buccaneers, and the Lions will attempt to replace his production with second-round pick Derrick Moore and free-agent additions D.J. Wonnum (tied for 133rd in pressure rate in 2025) and Payton Turner (out for the entire 2025 season with a rib injury).
-The Lions were eighth in red-zone touchdown rate (62.5% compared to 57.3% for the league average) last season. Jahmyr Gibbs scored 13 red-zone touchdowns last year, but David Montgomery also chipped in 7. The Lions shipped Montgomery off to the Texans and replaced him with Isiah Pacheco, who worked behind Kareem Hunt in Kansas City’s backfield goal-line pecking order.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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