Every offseason, I break down the NFL offensive trends that will shape the upcoming season, including a deep dive into team performance per possession and potential regression notes for the 2026 season.
The goal for these articles is straightforward.
We are monitoring the league's current state to identify any outliers, which we can then incorporate into the upcoming season while also gauging league trends.
While we have already examined all the positional tiers for 2026, it is always beneficial to review the league's overall landscape.
Every NFL season is unique, so this is always a great way to lay some groundwork.
| 2026 Fantasy Football Odds & Trends |
|---|
| Draft Kit Hub |
| 2026 League Trends |
| Quarterback Trends |
| Running Back Trends |
| Wide Receiver Trends |
| Tight End Trends |
| NFL Team Per Drive Trends |
| NFL Red Zone Trends (Coming soon) |
| NFL Yardage to Touchdown Trends (Coming soon) |
| Touchdown Trends (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Quarterbacks (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Running Backs (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Wide Receivers (Coming soon) |
| Red Zone Regression: Tight Ends (Coming soon) |
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League-Wide Scoring & Touchdown Rates Per Drive Since 2010
| Year | Drive/Gm | oTD/Gm | Score % | TD % | Play/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10.0 | 2.42 | 41.31% | 24.20% | 61.3 |
| 2024 | 10.2 | 2.43 | 40.58% | 23.76% | 62.2 |
| 2023 | 10.6 | 2.25 | 37.08% | 21.26% | 63.1 |
| 2022 | 10.4 | 2.28 | 37.91% | 21.94% | 62.9 |
| 2021 | 10.4 | 2.48 | 39.46% | 23.94% | 63.3 |
| 2020 | 10.4 | 2.74 | 41.71% | 26.43% | 64.4 |
| 2019 | 10.6 | 2.40 | 37.54% | 22.79% | 63.5 |
| 2018 | 10.8 | 2.53 | 37.93% | 23.41% | 62.9 |
| 2017 | 11.1 | 2.21 | 35.16% | 19.92% | 63.4 |
| 2016 | 11.0 | 2.42 | 37.01% | 21.95% | 63.9 |
| 2015 | 11.2 | 2.38 | 35.72% | 21.19% | 64.4 |
| 2014 | 11.2 | 2.33 | 35.43% | 20.92% | 64.0 |
| 2013 | 11.6 | 2.39 | 35.04% | 20.53% | 65.0 |
| 2012 | 11.3 | 2.29 | 34.87% | 20.21% | 64.2 |
| 2011 | 11.5 | 2.26 | 34.02% | 19.73% | 63.6 |
| 2010 | 11.4 | 2.29 | 33.62% | 20.06% | 63.1 |
*Drives excluding ones that ended in kneel-downs
In 2025, offenses built on the foundations they set the year before to sustain a high rate of scoring drives and touchdown production per possession.
Offenses scored on 41.3% of drives that did not end in kneel-downs, their highest rate in the sample outside of the COVID-influenced 2020 season.
Offenses put the ball into the end zone on 24.2% of those possessions, which followed suit.
Only 2020 had a higher rate since 2010.
Unfortunately, top-down touchdowns per game treaded water because overall possessions once again dipped.
Offenses averaged only 10.0 possessions per game that did not end in kneel-downs, their fewest in the 2000s.
If you are scoping out the table, we have lost roughly 1.5 possessions per team per game from where things were back in 2010.
As a result of fewer possessions, offenses sagged down to 61.3 plays per game, the fewest of the 2000s.
There were 485 fewer offensive plays last season than there were in 2024 and a whopping 1,004 fewer offensive plays than there were in 2023.
That’s a lot of plays where we could have some fantasy points.
Yes, teams are running more and throwing less, but the real culprit behind the reduction in top-down plays comes down to a few other factors.
Field Goals, Turnovers, and Punt Rates per Drive Since 2010
| Year | FG Att% | TO% | Punt% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 33.9% |
| 2024 | 19.1% | 10.7% | 35.1% |
| 2023 | 17.6% | 11.6% | 37.6% |
| 2022 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 37.2% |
| 2021 | 17.5% | 11.5% | 35.4% |
| 2020 | 17.2% | 11.4% | 34.1% |
| 2019 | 17.2% | 11.8% | 37.7% |
| 2018 | 16.5% | 11.6% | 38.7% |
| 2017 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 41.5% |
| 2016 | 17.3% | 11.3% | 39.9% |
| 2015 | 16.5% | 11.7% | 40.9% |
| 2014 | 16.7% | 12.1% | 40.4% |
| 2013 | 16.2% | 12.5% | 41.1% |
| 2012 | 17.0% | 12.5% | 41.3% |
| 2011 | 16.7% | 12.8% | 41.1% |
| 2010 | 16.0% | 13.3% | 41.0% |
The first component reducing possessions (and thus plays) is something we covered last week.
The league’s new kickoff rules and kickers now attempting more long-range field goals than ever have led to more and more drives ending in field goal attempts than ever before.
In each of the past two seasons, 19.1% of all possessions have ended with a field goal attempt, the highest rate of the 2000s.
The other thing in play is that offenses have protected the football better than ever the past two seasons.
Teams have turned the ball over at the lowest rates in the 2000s over the last two years.
There are fewer quick changes of possession to boost drives and play volume.
With more field goal attempts and fewer turnovers, punt rates have gone way down.
Last season, offenses punted on 33.9% of possessions, their lowest rate in the 2000s.
That cocktail has sapped some play volume from us through a fantasy lens.
2026 Fantasy Football Takeaways
Fantasy gamers often price in the most recent results.
We inherently know that the NFL is fluid, but we do not always account for regression on a team level.
Since the 2010 season, 69.6% of the teams that were below average in scoring rate per drive improved their rate in the following season.
Those teams averaged a 7.5% increase in scoring rate per drive the following season.
Those teams also averaged an increase in average touchdown rate per drive of +4.7% with an average increase of 8.5 offensive touchdowns per season.
Looking at the most recent NFL season, of the 16 teams that were in the back half of the league in scoring rate per drive in 2024, 11 improved that rate a year ago.
The Rams (+26 more offensive touchdowns), Patriots (+24), Cowboys (+20), Jaguars (+19), Giants (+15), Bears (+14), and Colts (+10) all saw a spike in touchdown production in the double digits.
The Patriots (28th to 4th), Bears (20th to 10th), and Jaguars (26th to 13th) all jumped from the bottom-10 in the NFL in scoring rate per drive in 2024 to the top half of the league in 2025.
On the other side of things, 67.9% of teams in the top half of the league in scoring rate per drive suffered a decline in scoring rate the following season.
Last season saw 13 of the 16 teams in the top half of the league in scoring rate per drive in 2024 decline in that department.
Another team (the Steelers) was dead on their 2024 rates.
The only teams in the front half of the league in scoring rate per drive in 2024 who increased their rates in 2025 were the 49ers (+6.9%) and the Packers (+0.3%).
Only the Steelers (+8), 49ers (+8), and Broncos (+1) scored more touchdowns from that group last year than they did in 2024.
We had major falloffs for the Buccaneers (-18 touchdowns), Ravens (-17), and Commanders (-16).
The Lions (-12), Eagles (-11), and Vikings (-11) also suffered a double-digit loss in touchdown production from that pocket of teams who were hyper-efficient the season prior.
The silver lining, though, is that even though we should expect everyone’s favorite phrase of “regression to the mean” for high-scoring offenses from one season to the next, we do not have to abandon ship.
Rarely do good offenses completely bottom out the following season, even with a regression.
Only once since 2010 has the most efficient scoring offense per drive ranked first again in the following season (the Chiefs in 2021 and 2022), but 48.6% of all top-10 scoring offenses have rolled over as top-10 again in the following season.
Only 11.3% of the time did a team finish in the top-10 in scoring rate and then fall to the bottom-10 the following season.
With those bulk trends noted, let's dive into per-drive team production from the 2025 season, highlighting takeaways we can apply heading into 2026.
2025 Team Per-Drive Rates
| Team | Drive/G | Score% | TD% | TD/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 9.9 | 37.3% | 22.5% | 2.24 |
| ATL | 10.2 | 39.1% | 20.7% | 2.12 |
| BAL | 9.9 | 45.2% | 27.4% | 2.71 |
| BUF | 9.5 | 48.1% | 36.4% | 3.47 |
| CAR | 9.2 | 36.5% | 21.2% | 1.94 |
| CHI | 10.3 | 45.7% | 26.9% | 2.76 |
| CIN | 10.2 | 41.4% | 27.0% | 2.76 |
| CLE | 11.2 | 26.2% | 13.6% | 1.53 |
| DAL | 10.1 | 49.7% | 28.7% | 2.88 |
| DEN | 10.4 | 40.1% | 24.3% | 2.53 |
| DET | 10.6 | 46.1% | 31.1% | 3.29 |
| GB | 8.9 | 47.7% | 29.1% | 2.59 |
| HOU | 10.7 | 45.1% | 18.7% | 2.00 |
| IND | 9.6 | 51.5% | 30.7% | 2.94 |
| JAX | 10.6 | 45.0% | 28.3% | 3.00 |
| KC | 9.6 | 43.3% | 23.2% | 2.24 |
| LAC | 9.8 | 44.3% | 21.6% | 2.12 |
| LAR | 9.9 | 50.6% | 37.5% | 3.71 |
| LV | 10.4 | 26.7% | 14.2% | 1.47 |
| MIA | 10.1 | 37.4% | 21.6% | 2.18 |
| MIN | 10.1 | 38.4% | 19.2% | 1.94 |
| NE | 9.4 | 50.3% | 33.3% | 3.12 |
| NO | 10.1 | 33.9% | 16.4% | 1.65 |
| NYG | 9.7 | 40.0% | 26.1% | 2.53 |
| NYJ | 10.4 | 30.7% | 14.8% | 1.53 |
| PHI | 9.9 | 36.9% | 25.0% | 2.47 |
| PIT | 9.9 | 41.1% | 25.0% | 2.47 |
| SEA | 10.2 | 48.3% | 24.7% | 2.53 |
| SF | 9.4 | 50.6% | 30.0% | 2.82 |
| TB | 10.2 | 40.8% | 22.4% | 2.29 |
| TEN | 10.5 | 29.6% | 13.4% | 1.41 |
| WAS | 9.2 | 38.9% | 24.2% | 2.24 |
*Drives excluding ones that ended in kneel-downs
Laying the groundwork to this point, let’s break things down for how we can apply last year’s results as a signal for 2025.
50% Club
Last season saw four teams score on at least 50% of their possessions, matching the 2024 season.
In 2023, there was only one team.
Zero in 2022, and two in 2021.
The Colts (51.5%), Rams (50.6%), 49ers (50.6%), and Patriots (50.3%) all reached that mountaintop last season.
Since 2010, there have been 24 other teams to score on at least half of their opportunities.
Only four were able to repeat that rate the following season, and three of those were Chiefs teams from the apex Mahomes-Tyree-Kelce run.
Only one of those previous 24 teams scored at a higher rate per drive the following season.
20 of those 24 teams scored fewer touchdowns the following season, with an average loss of 12 touchdowns per season.
2024 had four of those teams, with the Bills (-3), Lions (-12), Commanders (-16), and Buccaneers (-18) all scoring fewer touchdowns.
The Bills and Lions still ranked toward the top of the league in touchdowns scored last year, which is a reminder that not all regression is a boogeyman, something we harp on every season.
We should expect those four teams from last year to score fewer touchdowns this upcoming season, but that does not mean we have to completely hide from them or that they cannot rank highly in that department in 2026.
The Bills are the perfect team to highlight, since they have had several regression areas, but still consistently remain at the top of the league in scoring and touchdown rates.
Buffalo has ranked seventh or higher in scoring rate per drive in each of the past six seasons.
They have ranked top five in touchdown rate per drive in each of those six seasons.
45% Scoring Club
What is even more of a testament to offensive efficiency bouncing back last season is that we had another nine teams score on 45% or more of their possessions.
Add in the four in the 50% club, and that is nearly half of the league up there with a 45+ percent scoring rate.
For added context, in 2023, only four teams scored on 45% or more of their possessions.
In 2022, that number was five teams.
Even in the scoring spike seasons of 2020 and 2021, there were 11 teams to hit that arbitrary threshold.
Before last year, we had a 77-team sample hitting that mark since 2010.
Only nine of those 77 teams increased their scoring rate per drive in the following season.
All 12 teams in this bucket from 2024 scored fewer touchdowns in 2025.
30% Touchdown Club
Last year, six teams produced a touchdown on 30% or more of their drives.
The Rams scored a touchdown on a league-high 37.5% of their drives, the 10th-highest rate in the 2000s.
| Team | Year | Score% | N+Score | TD% | N+TD% | TD | N+TD | NTDDIff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 2025 | 50.6% | TBD | 37.5% | TBD | 63 | TBD | TBD |
| DET | 2024 | 54.7% | -8.6% | 39.5% | -8.4% | 68 | 56 | -12 |
| BUF | 2024 | 53.1% | -5.0% | 38.3% | -1.9% | 62 | 59 | -3 |
| GB | 2020 | 53.7% | -5.6% | 43.0% | -10.5% | 64 | 52 | -12 |
| BAL | 2019 | 57.0% | -9.5% | 38.9% | -7.4% | 58 | 51 | -7 |
| KC | 2018 | 55.2% | -1.9% | 40.5% | -9.8% | 66 | 46 | -20 |
| NO | 2018 | 56.9% | -6.5% | 38.6% | -8.4% | 59 | 48 | -11 |
| DEN | 2013 | 51.1% | -8.1% | 37.9% | -8.0% | 72 | 55 | -17 |
| GB | 2011 | 51.8% | -12.4% | 37.6% | -10.1% | 64 | 49 | -15 |
| NE | 2007 | 57.0% | -9.1% | 43.7% | -17.6% | 69 | 43 | -26 |
The nine teams ahead of them all had lower scoring and touchdown rates per possession, losing top-down touchdown output.
Now, all of those teams still scored 40-plus touchdowns the following season, and the past four teams with a higher rate all came back and scored 50-plus touchdowns the next season.
The 2025 Rams ran nearly as hot as any offense finding the end zone since 2010, but they are a strong bet not to remain a high touchdown-total offense in 2026.
Outside of the Rams, the Bills (36.4%), Patriots (33.3%), Lions (31.1%), Colts (30.7%), and 49ers (30%) were all at a 30% rate or better in the touchdown per drive department while the Packers (29.1%) just missed.
Related to the Packers, they only had 8.9 possessions per game last season that did not end in a kneel-down, the fewest for any team in the 2000s.
We have a 53-team sample of offenses scoring a touchdown on 30% or more of their drives from 2010 before last season.
Only six had a higher touchdown rate the following season.
42 of those teams scored fewer touchdowns the following season, with an average loss of -14 touchdowns.
Less Than 20% Touchdown Club
Working in the opposite direction and starting from the bottom up, we had seven teams score a touchdown on fewer than 20% of their possessions: the Vikings, Texans, Saints, Jets, Raiders, Browns, and Titans.
Since 2010, before last season, we have had 187 teams in that bucket.
72.2% of those teams raised their touchdown rate in the following season, with an average increase of 10 touchdowns per team.
There were 11 teams in this area last season, based on the results of 2024.
Seven of those teams scored more touchdowns than they did in 2024, with the Patriots, Cowboys, Jaguars, Giants, and Bears all raising their totals by double digits.
30% Scoring Club
Only three teams failed to score on at least 30% of their possessions last season: the Titans (29.6%), Raiders (26.7%), and Browns (26.2%).
Since 2010, 75 other teams have failed to score 30% of their drives.
64 of them (85.3%) scored at a higher rate the following season, with an average increase of 8.0 touchdowns per team.
League-Wide Scoring Distribution
Bringing this one home, the last section will not only examine the team scoring rate per drive but also how often those teams converted those scores into touchdowns, and who was solely kicking field goals when they did score points.
Rate of Scoring Plays Being Touchdowns Since 2010
| Year | TD% |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 58.6% |
| 2024 | 58.6% |
| 2023 | 57.3% |
| 2022 | 57.9% |
| 2021 | 60.7% |
| 2020 | 63.3% |
| 2019 | 60.7% |
| 2018 | 61.7% |
| 2017 | 56.7% |
| 2016 | 59.3% |
| 2015 | 59.3% |
| 2014 | 59.0% |
| 2013 | 58.6% |
| 2012 | 57.9% |
| 2011 | 57.9% |
| 2010 | 59.7% |
Last season, 58.6% of the scoring plays were touchdowns, right on pace with 2024.
2025 Team Dispersal of Scoring Plays
| Team | Year | Score% | TD% | Fg% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 2025 | 37.3% | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| ATL | 2025 | 39.1% | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| BAL | 2025 | 45.2% | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| BUF | 2025 | 48.1% | 75.6% | 24.4% |
| CAR | 2025 | 36.5% | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| CHI | 2025 | 45.7% | 58.8% | 41.3% |
| CIN | 2025 | 41.4% | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| CLE | 2025 | 26.2% | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| DAL | 2025 | 49.7% | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| DEN | 2025 | 40.1% | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| DET | 2025 | 46.1% | 67.5% | 32.5% |
| GB | 2025 | 47.7% | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| HOU | 2025 | 45.1% | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| IND | 2025 | 51.5% | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| JAX | 2025 | 45.0% | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| KC | 2025 | 43.3% | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| LAC | 2025 | 44.3% | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| MIA | 2025 | 50.6% | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| MIN | 2025 | 26.7% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| NO | 2025 | 37.4% | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| NE | 2025 | 38.4% | 66.3% | 33.8% |
| NYG | 2025 | 50.3% | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| NYJ | 2025 | 33.9% | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| LV | 2025 | 40.0% | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| PHI | 2025 | 30.7% | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| PIT | 2025 | 36.9% | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| LAR | 2025 | 41.1% | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| SEA | 2025 | 48.3% | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| SF | 2025 | 50.6% | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| TB | 2025 | 40.8% | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| TEN | 2025 | 29.6% | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| WAS | 2025 | 38.9% | 62.3% | 37.7% |
Last season, both the Bills (75.6%) and Rams (74.1%) had over 70% of their scoring plays come via touchdowns.
There have been 66 other teams in the 2000s who have had over 70% of their scoring plays come via touchdowns.
47 (71.2%) scored fewer touchdowns the following season with an average loss of -12.3 touchdowns.
NFL Teams With Expected Positive Touchdown Regression in 2026:
- Texans
- Titans
- Jets
- Saints
- Chargers
- Vikings
The Texans, Titans, Jets, Saints, and Chargers all kicked more field goals than they scored offensive touchdowns.
The Vikings were dead even at a 50/50 rate.
Since 2010, 72 other teams have had 50% or more of their scoring plays come via field goals.
Of those teams, 54 of them (75%) scored more touchdowns the following season, with an average increase among those teams of +11.4 touchdowns per season.
Which NFL Teams Will Likely Score Less in 2026?
- Rams
- Bills
- Patriots
- Lions
- Colts
- 49ers
- Seahawks
- Cowboys
Again, you don’t have to run away from all of the players attached to these teams.
Which NFL Teams Will Likely Score More in 2026?
- Saints
- Jets
- Titans
- Raiders
- Browns
If you combine all the areas we have covered, the Saints, Jets, and Titans have the most overlap in each department, drawing interest as teams that could have more upside in 2026.
