Yards Per Touchdown: NFL Touchdown Regression for 2026

Every offseason, I break down the NFL offensive trends that will shape the upcoming season, including a deep dive into how well NFL teams converted yards into touchdowns.

The goal for these articles is straightforward.

We are monitoring the league's current state to identify any outliers, which we can then incorporate into the upcoming season while also gauging league trends.

While we have already examined all the positional tiers for 2026, it is always beneficial to review the league's overall landscape.

Every NFL season is unique, so this is always a great way to lay some groundwork.

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League Offensive Yards To Touchdown Rate Since 2010

The idea that if a team gains a lot of yards, they will then be in a position to score more touchdowns is not some revelation, but it is a shortcut that lets us uncover a few teams that ran hot and cold in the touchdown department.

Last season, the required yardage for touchdowns dropped significantly again for the second year in a row.

Offenses produced a touchdown for every 134.3 yards gained, the best rate in a season since 2020 and the second-best rate since 2010.

Last week, we highlighted that offenses have been more efficient in producing scoring and touchdown drives, aided by the new kickoff rules.

With the average starting field position at the highest rate ever, offenses inherently need fewer yards to produce points.

Even with the spike in return yardage, total offensive yardage and touchdown production have held a high correlation.

In 2025, yardage gained had the fourth-highest correlation to touchdown output since 2010 and the second highest of the past 10 years.

Expected Regression

Since 2010, 66.8% of the teams that scored fewer touchdowns than their expected total based on yardage gained per league rates scored more offensive touchdowns the next season

On average, those teams scored 10.1 more touchdowns the following season.

Looking at the most recent NFL season, 18 teams scored fewer touchdowns than expected in 2024.

12 of those teams scored more touchdowns in 2025.

If looking for offenses that make the most significant leaps in a given season, they almost come from the bottom of the league the season prior.

That makes sense.

If you scored a lot of touchdowns the season prior, it is difficult to improve.

Since 2010, 96 teams have increased their touchdown totals by double digits from the previous year.

73 of those teams (76.0%) had fallen below touchdown expectations the year prior.

Last season, 12 teams scored more touchdowns than they did in 2024.

All but one (the Broncos) finished the 2024 season with fewer touchdowns than expected.

Seven teams raised their touchdown totals by double digits last season: the Rams (+26), Patriots (+24), Cowboys (+20), Jaguars (+19), Giants (+15), Bears (+14), and Colts (+12).

All were highlighted for positive regression following last season.

That can also be valuable to us, as we tend to overvalue previous production in current draft positions.

Especially in the assumption of which teams we believe are good and which ones we believe are bad, which has a lot of fluidity from year to year.

On the other hand, things are even more correlated with regression to the mean for offenses that outperform expectations.

72.1% of the teams that out-produced their expected touchdown total based on yardage gained scored fewer touchdowns the following season, with an average loss of 10.0 touchdowns per season among those teams.

Of the 14 teams that outperformed their expected touchdown production in 2024 based on yardage gained, all but one (Denver) scored fewer touchdowns in 2025.

Seven of those teams lost double-digit touchdowns: the Bucs (-18), Ravens (-16), Commanders (-15), Jets (-13), Lions (-12), Vikings (-11), and Eagles (-10).

Since 2010, 83 teams have lost double-digit touchdowns from their previous total.

75 of those teams (90.4%) had outperformed their touchdown expectations the previous season.

56.6% of those teams had outperformed their touchdown expectations by 5 or more scores, and 26.5% had scored double-digit more touchdowns than expected.

2025 Expected TD Output Based On Yardage

NFL Teams Due for Negative Touchdown Regression in 2026

Let’s start with the teams who ran hot last year.

We had two teams outkick their touchdown expectations by double digits: the Rams and Bills.

Since 2010, there have been 35 other teams to score double-digit touchdowns over expectations.

30 of them scored fewer touchdowns the following season, with an average loss of 15 touchdowns among them.

That said, Buffalo is a reminder that not all regression is the end of the world.

The Bills scored 3 fewer touchdowns than they did in 2024 but still ranked second in the league in touchdowns.

The Bills have scored more touchdowns than yardage expectations in each of the past six seasons. No other team has that long of a streak.

Only five other teams have scored more touchdowns than yardage expectations in each of the past three seasons with Buffalo: the Lions, Packers, Eagles, Bengals, and Ravens.

The Rams led the way with 13.0 touchdowns scored over expectations, the most in the Sean McVay era.

The Rams produced a touchdown for every 106.5 yards of offense, also the best of the McVay era.

The previous best was in 2018, when the Rams got into the end zone for every 122.5 yards of offense and scored 6.9 touchdowns over expectations.

The following year, they still scored 42 touchdowns, but that was 13 fewer than the previous season, dropping from third to 13th in touchdowns.

Going a step down the ladder, the Lions (+8.8), Jaguars (+8.3), and Colts (+8.2) all scored eight or more times over expectations.

45 of the previous 57 teams that hit that arbitrary threshold came back and scored fewer touchdowns the following season, with an average loss of 13 touchdowns per team.

Seven teams fit that mold entering last season, and all of them scored fewer touchdowns in 2025 than they did in 2024.

Five of the seven lost double-digit touchdowns.

The Lions have been a team we have faith in hanging around the top of the league in touchdowns since they have regularly exceeded expectations even when losing scores, but the Jags and Colts are teams we are still taking a step of faith on being real.

The Jaguars were a team that had a surplus of scoring opportunities come via takeaways.

Jacksonville scored a league-high 110 points off takeaways last year.

They had a league-high 30 possessions start in opponents’ territory, which led to 13 touchdowns (43.5%).

On drives that started on their side of the field, they ranked 18th in points per drive (2.01) but managed a 23.9% touchdown rate (12th).

After the bye, when the Jaguars had the best point differential in the NFL while ranking second in offensive points per game (31.2) and third in points per drive (2.81), they were 15th in yards per play (5.3) and 17th in yards per drive (30.9).

Even expecting natural regression for the Jaguars, I do place stock in Liam Coen as a play-caller.

If you go back to Coen’s Tampa Bay offense in 2024, they scored 8.1 touchdowns over expectations.

Even his 2022 Rams team that lost Matthew Stafford for eight games only fell 1.0 touchdown below expectations that season.

The Colts are tougher for me to bet on staying in this space.

Indianapolis produced a touchdown for every 113.1 yards last season, a rate that could have been even lower had Daniel Jones played the full season.

That was the best rate for the franchise over the past 18 years.

In Shane Steichen’s previous two years with the Colts, they scored fewer touchdowns than expected.

With Jones returning from an Achilles injury to his plant leg, and several moving parts on the offense, I am more trepidatious that they will pick up the production they had over the first half of 2024.

NFL Teams Due for Positive Touchdown Regression in 2026

Last season, we used this space to highlight that the Cowboys were a team to bet on to see the biggest spike in touchdowns in 2025.

They raised their touchdown total by 20, going from 30th in the league in touchdowns in 2024 to seventh last season.

In 2024, Dallas scored 11.1 fewer touchdowns than expected.

The Saints were the only team last season to fall short of touchdown expectations by double digits.

That makes the Saints three for three in this series so far as a team to stock having positive regression to the mean.

Yesterday, we covered how historically cold the Saints ran near the end zone.

Since 2010, 25 other teams have scored 10 or fewer touchdowns than expected.

20 of them scored more touchdowns the following season, with an average increase of 14 touchdowns per team.

The Titans (-8.9) and Texans (-8.4) each finished with 8.0 touchdowns below expectations.

43 of the 52 teams (82.7%) that fit that criteria raised their touchdown totals the following season with an average spike of 10.0 touchdowns per team.

The Jets, Browns, Chargers, Falcons, and Raiders all scored 5.0 fewer touchdowns than expectations.

74.4% of those teams have historically scored more touchdowns the following season, with an average increase of 11 touchdowns per team.

Seeing the Texans and Chargers make those last two sections is exciting since these are teams who are inherently expected to be good based on win totals.

If there were a team to make a 2025 Dallas-esque jump this season, those would be my two favorite bets.

The Chargers fit the mold the best since they had several injuries, similar to that 2024 Dallas team.

I also do want to acknowledge the Jets here, who have regularly come up the most throughout the series so far, on par with the Saints.

Gamers are still operating with one foot in and the other out on Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, but the upside potential is still on the table.

Which NFL Teams Are Expected to Be More Efficient Converting Yards to Touchdowns in 2026?

• Saints
• Titans
• Texans
• Jets
• Chargers
• Browns
• Falcons
• Raiders

Which NFL Teams Are Expected to Be Less Efficient Converting Yards to Touchdowns in 2026?

• Rams
• Bills
• Lions
• Jaguars
• Colts