Ohio State vs. Indiana, Current Betting Odds:
- Ohio State -3.5 points
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Ohio State vs. Indiana Best Bet Prediction:
- Indiana +3.5 points
Ohio State's defense appears to have some holes, so let's take the points and play Indiana against the spread.
When Ohio State Is on Offense
Ohio State's offense is led by first-year coordinator Arthur Smith, though the scheme closely resembles the offense used by the Buckeyes throughout Ryan Day‘s tenure.
According to FourthAndShort, Ohio State throws the ball at a rate 3.0% above expected based on situational data, and most of the passing attack flows through Jeremiah Smith.
In the first half of games, Smith has commanded a 38% target share while accounting for 50% of the Buckeyes' receiving yards.
Smith has also accounted for 51% of Ohio State's targets at 10 or more yards downfield in the first half.
When one receiver dominates the workload to such an extreme degree, it often signals a lack of depth, but the explanation might be more simplistic for Ohio State.
Despite being widely regarded as one of the greatest receivers in college football history, Smith has never been a Heisman finalist or even won the Biletnikoff Award.
Smith has talked openly about wanting to get to New York for the Heisman ceremony this season, and the Buckeyes appear to be making an effort to make that happen.
When Ohio State does not target Smith, the offense has been just fine.
On throws 10 or more yards downfield directed at receivers other than Smith, Ohio State is completing 59% of its passes, which would rank eighth in the FBS per Sports Info Solutions.
So there's good reason to believe Ohio State can be effective even if Indiana limits Smith's production, though receivers Brandon Innis and Devin McCuin both sat out last week's game against Maryland.
It's unclear why they were held out, though both players are off the injury report this week.
It's also worth noting Indiana does not have the same level of talent in the secondary as last year when D'Angelo Ponds matched up against Smith.
Take a look at how Indiana's starting outside cornerbacks Jamari Sharpe and Jaylen Bell have fared against power-conference competition compared to Sharpe and Ponds in 2025:
Outside CBs Yds/Att Ball-Hawk Rate TD-INT PI Penalties 2025 Ponds/Sharpe 6.5 20% 1-2 1 2026 Sharpe/Bell 8.8 18% 1-1 2
Fortunately for Sharpe and Bell, the pass-rush unit might be able to help them out.
Check out the pass-protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ohio State: ranked 84th in pressure rate allowed
- Indiana: ranked 4th in pressure rate generated
Ohio State's inability to protect Julian Sayin was a critical factor in last year's matchup.
He faced pressure on 44% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate he faced all year.
After taking just 6 sacks in the regular season, Sayin went down 5 times against the Hoosiers (and another 5 times against Miami's pass rush in the playoffs).
So the question is: Has Sayin improved in his ability to handle pressure?
It's hard to answer that question definitively, but his performance against Texas was encouraging.
Texas currently leads the nation in opponent-adjusted pressure rate and got to Sayin 16 times (a 44% pressure rate).
Sayin completed just 30% of his passes against pressure but hit some big plays, allowing him to average 9.5 yards per attempt while taking just 2 sacks.
It will be critical for Ohio State to find success with the passing game because there's little hope of the Buckeyes running the ball against Indiana.
Check out these opponent-adjusted numbers on the run game from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ohio State: ranked 76th in yards before contact
- Indiana: ranked 2nd in yards before contact allowed
- Ohio State: ranked 35th in yards after contact
- Indiana: ranked 20th in yards after contact allowed
For the second year in a row, Ohio State can't effectively block the run game 一 the Buckeyes really miss the creativity Chip Kelly brought to the table during their title run in 2024.
When Indiana Is on Offense
Indiana runs a balanced but conservative offense under coordinator Mike Shanahan, who has called plays for the past six seasons at Indiana and James Madison under Curt Cignetti.
Although much has remained the same in terms of Indiana's approach on offense, the downgrade from Fernando Mendoza to Josh Hoover has been noticeable.
The biggest difference has been Hoover's inability to handle pressure.
When facing pressure, Hoover is completing just 32% of his passes while taking a sack 26% of the time, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Indiana has protected him well so far 一 the Hoosiers rank 20th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed 一 but Ohio State's blitz could potentially cause problems.
Let's check out some numbers on the blitz matchup in this game via stats from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ohio State: 34% blitz rate, ranked 33rd
- Indiana: 36% pressure rate allowed versus blitz, ranked 61st
- Ohio State: 36% pressure rate generated on blitz, ranked 82nd
- Hoover: 10.5 yards per attempt versus blitz, ranked 11th
So while Indiana has allowed pressure at an elevated rate, Hoover has made defenses pay for the strategy by hitting on some big plays.
Despite Hoover's numbers, this could be an area where Ohio State's talent makes Indiana's early-season success look more like a product of poor competition.
Against Big Ten opponents (Nebraska, Northwestern and Rutgers), Hoover is averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt against the blitz and was just 5 for 11 for 69 yards last week against Nebraska.
Hoover's inability to handle pressure might explain why Indiana's passing attack has been more conservative than a season ago.
According to Pro Football Focus, Hoover has released the ball in under 2.5 seconds at the nation's 12th-highest rate (56%), which has limited his ability to attack downfield.
Outside the red zone, Indiana is averaging just 5.0 attempts per game at 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 105th.
That's a surprising trend given the presence of receivers Nick Marsh and Charlie Becker, two of the more talented downfield weapons in the Big Ten.
The sporadic downfield usage of their best playmakers likely indicates the coaches don't have enough faith in Hoover and/or the offensive line to protect him.
Fortunately for Indiana, the rushing attack should be able to make up for the expected lack of a passing game in this matchup.
Last week, Nebraska shut down the Hoosiers' run game, holding running backs Lee Beebe Jr. and Turbo Richard to just 41 yards on 17 carries (2.4 yards per attempt).
However, the Huskers' run defense appears to be significantly more stout than Ohio State's based on these opponent-adjusted numbers:
- Nebraska: ranked 30th in yards before contact allowed
- Ohio State: ranked 83rd in yards before contact allowed
Ohio State ranked 31st a season ago, but the losses of Kayden McDonald, Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles and others to the NFL forced the Buckeyes to rebuild their run defense.
Indiana's inability to run the ball against Nebraska forced the Hoosiers into third-and-long situations on 37% of their sets of downs last week, by far their highest rate of the year.
That was a significant factor in Indiana going 1 for 10 on third-down attempts, limiting its ability to stay on the field and extend drives.
The Buckeyes defense ranks third in the country in forcing third-and-longs, but that number is skewed by some ridiculously dominant performances against poor competition.
Against Texas, Ohio State forced just six third-and-long situations on 35 sets of downs (17%), which is probably a better indicator of how the Buckeyes will perform in this matchup.
If Indiana can run the ball and avoid those situations, the offense should look better than in their close call against the Huskers.
Final Thoughts on Indiana vs. Ohio State Best Bets
Cignetti's squad is not as complete as last year's championship team, but the Buckeyes' defense is also not nearly as strong as the 2025 version 一 so let's take the points and play Indiana against the spread.
