Ole Miss vs. Texas, Current Betting Odds:
- Texas -3.5 points
Find the odds for the top games every week of the college football season
Ole Miss vs. Texas Best Bet Prediction:
- Ole Miss +3.5 points
Texas looks like a sinking ship, so let's take the points and play Ole Miss against the spread.
When Ole Miss Is on Offense
Ole Miss runs a pass-heavy offense under coordinator John David Baker, who is in his first year in the role after previously calling plays at East Carolina.
Baker spent time on Lane Kiffin‘s staff in Oxford prior to joining the Pirates, so much of the offensive scheme has remained the same, which explains Trinidad Chambliss‘ seamless transition to the new regime.
Ole Miss throws the ball at a rate 6.2% above expected based on situational data from FourthAndShort, the nation's fourth-highest rate.
In order to lean on the passing game, Ole Miss needs to be able to protect Chambliss, so let's take a look at the opponent-adjusted pass protection numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ole Miss: ranked 3rd in pressure rate allowed
- Texas: ranked 2nd in pressure rate generated
It looks like a great matchup, but there are two reasons to trust Ole Miss to win this battle in the trenches.
For starters, Texas is expected to be without leading pass-rusher Colin Simmons for the next few weeks due to an injury he suffered against Florida.
Simmons is a likely top-10 NFL draft pick next year and was leading the SEC in pressure rate prior to his injury.
Ole Miss' scheme is another reason to trust its pass protection regardless of its opponent.
According to Pro Football Focus, Chambliss has released the ball in under 2.5 seconds 55% of the time, the nation's 23rd-highest rate, making it almost impossible to generate pressure on most pass plays.
When opposing quarterbacks release the ball that fast, Texas is generating a 12.7% pressure rate, ranked 63rd.
Since Texas likely can't get consistent pressure on Chambliss, the secondary will need to step up and make big plays, especially against the downfield passing attack.
Outside the red zone, Ole Miss throws 15 or more yards downfield 23% of the time, a relatively high rate for a team that doesn't ask its quarterback to hang in the pocket often.
The downfield passing game will be a battle of strength versus strength, as Ole Miss has completed 51% of those passes while Texas has allowed a 28% completion rate.
However, it's worth noting the level of competition Texas has faced might be skewing those numbers.
Two of Texas' toughest opponents have no passing attack this year (Tennessee and Oklahoma).
Texas held the Vols and Sooners to just 2 for 11 passing on throws of 15 or more yards.
However, when facing Ohio State 一 an offense much closer in style and talent to Ole Miss 一 the Longhorns allowed a 6 for 11 performance on those throws by Julian Sayin.
The run game should also be a good matchup based on these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ole Miss: ranked 4th in yards before contact
- Texas: ranked 11th in yards before contact allowed
- Ole Miss: ranked 73rd in yards after contact
- Texas: ranked 18th in yards after contact allowed
Although the numbers appear to favor Texas slightly due to its ability to prevent yards after contact, the Longhorns might be more vulnerable to Ole Miss' scheme than these numbers indicate.
Texas has struggled to generate early contact against the run, reaching the ball carrier before crossing the line of scrimmage just 39.6% of the time, ranked 75th.
It's going to be even more challenging to generate early contact against Ole Miss' spread attack, which faces early contact at the nation's seventh-lowest rate.
Ole Miss' ability to avoid early contact and negative plays has allowed it to stay out of third-and-long situations.
Only 14.5% of Ole Miss' sets of downs have reached third-and-long, the eighth-lowest rate in the country.
So despite some strong numbers from the Texas defense, there's reason to believe the Ole Miss offense can continue to find success in this matchup by avoiding difficult down-and-distance situations which can disrupt the flow of the game.
When Texas Is on Offense
The Texas offense is a mess, and difficult questions are mounting for head coach Steve Sarkisian and quarterback Arch Manning.
It's hard to pinpoint exactly what has gone wrong because there's plenty of talent and many underlying metrics look good, but the team has simply not added up to the sum of its parts.
The lack of explosive plays has been one of the most concerning developments.
Texas ranks 126th in explosive play rate, generating 20 or more yards on just 4.8% of plays.
After adding the best receiver in the portal (Cam Coleman) and two starting-caliber running backs (Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers), this was supposed to be one of the most dangerous offenses Sark put together in Austin, but the explosive plays have not developed.
One of the issues has been a mediocre offensive line, which might not be a problem in this matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Texas: ranked 66th in pressure rate allowed
- Ole Miss: ranked 71st in pressure rate generated
So there's reason to believe Texas can protect Manning in this matchup, but that doesn't mean he'll produce at the level expected of him.
Check out Manning's numbers from a clean pocket this season:
- 67% completion rate, ranked 73rd out of 127 quarterbacks
- 7.3 yards per attempt, ranked 85th out of 127 quarterbacks
- 2.5% interception rate, ranked 92nd out of 127 quarterbacks
Even when the offensive line does its job, Manning hasn't produced, making it difficult to bet on improvement even against an inconsistent defense like Ole Miss.
It's also worth noting that, while Texas might be able to protect Manning reasonably well in this matchup, he has struggled to avoid costly mistakes versus pressure this year.
When facing pressure, Manning has taken a sack 24% of the time, ranked 109th according to Sports Info Solutions.
If Texas is losing faith in Manning, perhaps Sark pivots to a more run-heavy offense in this matchup.
It would be a reasonable approach based on Manning's struggles, but the Longhorns likely do not hold an edge in the ground game based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Texas: ranked 91st in yards before contact
- Ole Miss: ranked 49th in yards before contact allowed
- Texas: ranked 51st in yards after contact
- Ole Miss: ranked 38th in yards after contact allowed
Pete Golding‘s run defense has been wildly inconsistent this year, giving up over 300 yards on the ground to Florida but then holding Missouri's Jamal Roberts to just 39 yards on 20 carries last week.
Despite the inconsistent production, the one thing Ole Miss has repeatedly done is create problems for opponents in the backfield.
When Ole Miss makes contact at or behind the line of scrimmage, it brings down the ball carrier for zero or negative yards 59% of the time, the nation's third-highest stuff conversion rate.
That should concern the Longhorns, whose ball carriers rank 117th in stuff avoidance rate, going down on early contact 49% of the time.
All of these issues in both the run game and passing attack have made it difficult for Texas to sustain drives 一 a problem which has been on full display the last two weeks in losses to Oklahoma and Florida.
Texas was just 3 for 14 on third downs against the Sooners and 2 for 10 against the Gators.
Ole Miss' third-down defense has been terrible 一 it ranks 117th 一 but the team ranked just behind Ole Miss is Florida, so it's hard to trust the Longhorns after we just saw them lay an egg against a similarly poor unit.
Final Thoughts on Ole Miss vs. Texas Best Bets
It's impossible to trust Texas right now given all its issues on offense and the injury to Simmons, so let's take the points and bet Ole Miss against the spread.
If there were any questions about Ole Miss' ability to handle a road environment after it got steamrolled at Florida in September, those were answered with a dominant performance at Missouri last week.
Plus, the Texas fan base is growing angrier by the week and will quickly turn on its own team after the first mistake 一 this won't be a tough environment unless Texas gets rolling early and builds a lead.
