Ohio State vs. USC, Current Betting Odds:
- Ohio State -6.5 points
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Ohio State vs. USC Best Bet Prediction:
- Under 51.5 points
USC's offense is coming off a 7-point output at Wisconsin, and Ohio State will be starting a freshman at quarterback, so let's play the under at 51.5 points.
When Ohio State Is on Offense
Ohio State has been running a pass-heavy offense under head coach Ryan Day and coordinator Arthur Smith, but expect that to change due to the injury to quarterback Julian Sayin.
The Buckeyes will start either true freshman Luke Fahey or redshirt freshman Tavien St. Clair.
St. Clair was a five-star prospect in the 2025 recruiting class and was expected to be the heir to Sayin.
However, St. Clair shockingly lost the battle for the backup job to Fahey, a three-star recruit and the 38th-ranked quarterback in last year's class according to 247Sports.
It was Fahey who stepped in following Sayin's injury against Indiana, though Day has not announced a starter and has even indicated both quarterbacks might play.
It's a tough situation for the Buckeyes, though it's worth noting that Day has been arguably the best quarterback coach in the country over the last decade.
Day has produced more first-round quarterback selections at Ohio State (3) than the Buckeyes had in school history before he arrived (1).
Even some of the guys who never won the job at Ohio State (Joe Burrow, Lincoln Kienholz, Quinn Ewers) have gone on to success elsewhere.
So if Fahey does play, don't assume he'll look like a typical three-star freshman.
If Day sees something in him, he's got a chance to surprise us.
That said, expect Ohio State to pivot to a more conservative run-heavy offense in its first game without Sayin.
So let's take a look at some opponent-adjusted numbers in the run game, via Sports Info Solutions:
- Ohio State: ranked 52nd in yards before contact
- USC: ranked 36th in yards before contact allowed
- Ohio State: ranked 31st in yards after contact
- USC: ranked 55th in yards after contact allowed
Although the numbers do not obviously favor either side, the Buckeyes should be worried due to their tendency to invite stacked boxes with heavy formations.
Ohio State running backs have carried the ball into a stacked box 56% of the time, the 30th-highest rate, and that's despite having one of the most dangerous passing attacks in the country.
If USC doesn't respect Ohio State's ability to beat them downfield with Fahey or St. Clair, the Trojans might get even more aggressive.
So let's take a look at how these teams compare with a stacked box, via numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ohio State: 4.1 yards per attempt, ranked 75th
- USC: 3.3 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 20th
The strength of USC's defensive front was most notably on display against Oregon, when the Trojans held the Ducks' running backs to just 65 yards on 20 carries with a stacked box.
Although USC's defense still has some flaws, coordinator Gary Patterson has instilled some physicality and discipline to the unit.
The Trojans have been known for their missed tackles in the Lincoln Riley era, an issue which Patterson has mostly eradicated.
USC enters this contest ranked 10th in broken/missed tackle rate against the run, allowing one once every 10.1 carries by running backs, per Sports Info Solutions.
Patterson has also solved USC's mistake-prone ways against the run, making it significantly less common that opponents find open running lanes due to defensive gaffes.
Check out the rate at which USC allows three or more yards before contact over the last two years:
- 2025: 37%, ranked 134th
- 2026: 23%, ranked 32nd
It's also worth pointing out that Ohio State does not use the read-option as part of its run game, something which has given the Trojans trouble.
According to Sports Info Solutions, only 6.5% of the Buckeyes' run plays have started with a read-option, the nation's seventh-lowest rate.
That's significant because it factored into USC's loss to Wisconsin last week.
The Badgers rank 34th in read-option usage (24%) and averaged 5.4 yards per attempt on those plays against USC, which was actually a slight improvement on the Trojans' 6.2 yards per attempt mark on the year (ranked 105th).
When Ohio State does drop back to pass, Fahey and/or St. Clair will need to be prepared to handle pressure.
Take a look at the pass-protection battle based on opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Ohio State: ranked 66th in pressure rate allowed
- USC: ranked 32nd in pressure rate generated
Sayin often stood in the pocket for an extended period of time, looking to take shots downfield, which invited more pressure.
According to Pro Football Focus, Ohio State quarterbacks have held the ball for at least 2.5 seconds on 61% of their dropbacks, the 24th-highest rate.
Asking a freshman quarterback to make those same downfield reads obviously carries risks, but this USC secondary has been vulnerable, and it could pay off, especially when throwing to a receiver like Jeremiah Smith.
Despite the production of the pass-rush unit, USC is still allowing 8.2 yards per attempt on those extended dropbacks, ranked 70th.
The Trojans also rank 116th in explosive pass rate allowed, giving up 20 or more yards on 11.7% of attempts.
So Fahey and/or St. Clair will have opportunities for big plays, which means the key to keeping the offense on track might rest in their ability to avoid mistakes.
Fortunately for the Buckeyes, this has not been a particularly opportunistic USC defense.
When generating pressure, USC only ranks 44th in sack conversion rate, turning 21% of pressures into sacks.
Additionally, on throws 10 or more yards downfield, the Trojans have only generated a 17% ball-hawk rate, ranked 71st.
That stat indicates their 3 interceptions are a reflection of a skill/scheme issue and more than just bad luck, so there's a chance Ohio State's inexperienced quarterbacks can avoid game-changing mistakes against Patterson's defense.
When USC Is on Offense
Lincoln Riley runs a version of the Air Raid offense which relies heavily on getting the ball to his playmakers in space.
One of the strengths of USC's offense this year has been the offensive line, which likely holds an edge over the Buckeyes based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- USC: ranked 8th in pressure rate allowed
- Ohio State: ranked 34th in pressure rate generated
The Air Raid nature of the offense aids in limiting pressure, but even on extended dropbacks, the Trojans' offensive line has held up.
When USC quarterbacks hold the ball for at least 2.5 seconds, they have faced pressure just 33% of the time, the nation's seventh-lowest rate according to Pro Football Focus.
Left tackle Elijah Page has been a significant part of that success, allowing a 1.9% pressure rate, ranked 19th out of 300 qualified FBS offensive tackles.
Although Ohio State might have trouble getting pressure on Jayden Maiava, the Buckeyes' defense does have the tools to slow down the Trojans' passing attack.
On throws five or fewer yards downfield, Ohio State allows just 5.7 yards per completion (ranked 15th), a sign that the Buckeyes' linebackers and defensive backs close quickly and tackle efficiently 一 exactly what is needed against Air Raid concepts.
Taking shots downfield won't be any easier based on these numbers from outside the red zone:
- Maiava: 46% completion rate on throws 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 73rd
- Ohio State: 29% completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 10th
Despite those concerning numbers, there's reason to believe USC's passing attack is in better shape than these trends indicate.
Star freshman receiver Trent Mosley missed three games due to injury but has been fantastic when available, hauling in 27 of 31 catchable passes.
And despite missing those three games, Mosley still leads the Trojans in receptions at 15 or more yards downfield with eight.
There's also a chance tight end Mark Bowman returns from an injury that has kept him on the sidelines since late September.
Even if the passing game struggles in this matchup, USC can probably pivot to the run game and find more success than it did last week in Wisconsin.
Check out these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions comparing Ohio State's defense to the Badgers:
- Wisconsin: ranked 7th in yards before contact allowed
- Ohio State: ranked 54th in yards before contact allowed
- Wisconsin: ranked 7th in yards after contact allowed
- Ohio State: ranked 18th in yards after contact allowed
So while the Trojans were criticized for looking soft against Wisconsin, we should not assume the Buckeyes' inconsistent run defense has the same effect on USC running backs King Miller and Waymond Jordan.
That said, Ohio State's second-level defenders have been strong against the run, and their athleticism should match up fairly well with USC's spread attack.
Riley's scheme excels at creating light boxes for his running backs, but Ohio State is only allowing 3.8 yards per attempt with a light box, ranked eighth in the country.
Final Thoughts on USC vs. Ohio State Best Bets
Assuming Ohio State's offense takes a step back with a freshman quarterback, both defenses appear to have an edge, so let's take the under at 51.5 points.
If I were betting the spread, I would take the points with USC, but this looks like it should be a close, low-scoring game, making the under more appealing.
