2022 NFL Regular Season Schedule Grid & Strength Of Schedule

Rest Disparity

In 2021 we saw 85 out of 272 games played where one team had a rest advantage over their opponent. Instead of reducing that number to introduce more equality in rest, the NFL increased the number of games with rest disparities in 2022.

This year, there are 93 games played where one team has a rest advantage over their opponent.  That’s 34% of the total schedule.  And while a one day rest disadvantage may not seem like much, particularly early on in the season, now with a 17-game schedule, every day matters especially later in the season.

Last year, in the NFL’s first 17-game season, teams with a rest advantage over their opponent from weeks 14 thru 18 went 21-11 (66%)*.

*excludes the meaningless week 18 game for the Bengals who rested starters

Note:  rest advantages typically help the better coached team with a better roster.  Playing with rest disadvantages really hurts teams with worse coaching or worse rosters.  In other words, great coaches & great teams can overcome rest disadvantages and still win.  That isn’t the case for bad teams.

 Over the last 10 years, teams expected to win games (teams favored) and playing with a rest advantage from week 14 onward went 79-30 (72.5%) and covered 55.1% of games. 

 Such favorites went 374-154 (70.8%) and covered only 52.6% of games if they didn’t have a rest advantage.

Thus, the worse teams, playing with a rest disadvantage, won just 27.5% of games instead of 29.2% of games.  While these numbers may seem slight, as you know, every year making or missing the playoffs is decided for multiple teams by one single game.  And coaches are fired or save their jobs at times based on the result of one single game.

So efforting to increase parity and equality and limiting the number of games with rest disadvantages should be paramount.  But the NFL increased the number of these games this season.

number of games this season where opponents have over a week to prepare or under a week to prepare for each team

and how the ranking in 2022 compares to 2021 as well as the prior decade pic.twitter.com/S2mbpAA9hn

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 13, 2022

Team Notes

Dallas Cowboys

For the first time since the NFL expanded Thursday Night Football in 2006, the Dallas Cowboys will play a short week road game in 2022.  Dallas had been one of only two teams since 2006 to never play a short week road game. The NFL had sent Dallas to play in five Thursday night road games, but gave them a full week of rest between each game.

Their Week 17 game in Tennessee this year is a short week road game, but the NFL was still kind to the Cowboys, by having them play on the Saturday preceding this Week 17 contest, thus reducing the lack of rest days to four (Sunday through Wednesday) instead of the standard three (Monday thru Wednesday for teams that play Sunday and then a road Thursday game).

the Cowboys also play 5 games this year with more rest than their opponent, most of any team in the NFL

a failure of schedule makers this season was inability to reduce rest disparity

games played with rest disparity:

2021: 85
2022: 93 pic.twitter.com/kQcDIppq78

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 13, 2022

This season, teams play an average of 2.6 games vs opponents who have less than a week to prepare for the game.  That is up from 2.1 games per team in 2021, which means we’re trending in the wrong direction.

Last year, only one team played four games vs opponents who had less than a week to prepare for the game.

This year, several teams play four games vs opponents who have less than a week to prepare for the game.

But the Cowboys are extremely fortunate.

This year the Cowboys play six games vs opponents who have less than a week to prepare for Dallas.

• In Week 5 vs the Rams, LA is on a short week off MNF
• In Week 8 vs the Bears, Chicago is on a short week off MNF
• In Week 12 vs the Giants, NY is playing on the road on a short week on Thanksgiving
• In Week 13 vs the Colts, Indianapolis is playing on a short week off MNF
• In Week 16 vs the Eagles, Philadelphia is playing on a short week as the game is Saturday
• In Week 17 vs the Titans, Tennessee is playing on a short week as the game is Thursday

Not all of these games present rest edges (only three of them do) but it is an extreme anomaly for a team to play six games vs opponents on short rest when the NFL average is 2.6 and no team in the last few years played more than four such games.

Philadelphia Eagles

On short week road games, while ideally these should be minimized due to the disadvantage it causes the road team, the NFL increased the number of short week road games in 2022, issuing 43 of them, up from 28 in 2021. The team that sees the worst of it is the Eagles.

Last year, no team had to play more than two short week road games in a season.

This year, the Eagles play four short week road games:

Week 3 in Washington off of a Week 2 MNF game
Week 9 in Houston on Thursday night off a Week 8 Sunday game
Week 11 in Indianapolis off a Week 10 MNF game
Week 16 in Dallas on a Saturday afternoon off a Week 15 Sunday game

Half of the Eagles’ eight road contests force them onto the road on short rest. Meanwhile, 21 teams play either zero or one short week road game.

The Eagles play four. Five other teams play three.

Washington Commanders

Washington is one of three teams to play four different opponents who are coming off a “mini-bye” (while not a full bye week, this happens when a team plays on Thursday and has three extra days of rest before next playing two Sundays from their prior game).

Last year, no team played four opponents off of mini-byes. This year, it’s happening to three teams: the Commanders, Jets, and Jaguars. But it’s particularly brutal for Washington as the games are all bunched tightly at the end of a long, 17-game season.

Week 10, Washington plays the Eagles, a team off a mini-bye after playing Thursday of Week 9.
Week 13, Washington plays the Giants, a team off a mini-bye after playing on Thanksgiving.
Week 16, Washington plays the 49ers, a team off a mini-bye after playing Thursday of Week 15.
Week 18, Washington plays the Cowboys, a team off a mini-bye after playing Thursday of Week 17.

Washington is at a 3-day rest disadvantage in every game and their opponents, late in the season, have the benefit of critical extra rest.

Not only is that brutally difficult, considering that only three of 32 teams face four opponents off of mini-byes, it’s hardly fair.  And is an increase over 2021 considering not one team was asked to perform such a gauntlet.