2024 NFL Strength Of Schedule, Regular Season

With odds released for all 32 NFL teams, we are now able to calculate NFL Strength of Schedule using projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers.

What NFL team has the easiest schedule in 2024:

Based on projected win totals, the Atlanta Falcons have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2024 NFL season.

NFL teams with the easiest schedules in 2024:

1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Los Angeles Chargers
3. Chicago Bears
4. New York Jets
5. New Orleans Saints

What NFL team has the hardest schedule in 2024:

Based on projected win totals, the Pittsburgh Steelers have the hardest strength of schedule for the 2024 NFL season.

NFL teams with the hardest schedules in 2024:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. New England Patriots
3. Cleveland Browns
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Minnesota Vikings

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We’ve ranked the 2024 schedule for every NFL team from easiest (#1) to hardest (#32), plus current betting odds and implied win totals for every NFL team.

2024 NFL Strength of Schedule:

2024 NFL Strength of Schedule, Visualization

While there are not any perfect strength of schedule metrics, using 2024 Vegas win totals is much better than most widely used metrics that incorporate the previous season’s record.

Here is a visual breakdown of 2024 NFL strength of schedule rankings for each NFL team, based on Vegas win totals.

How accurate is Warren Sharp’s model for determining strength of schedule?

Looking at last season’s strength of schedule model:

• Of the 15 teams predicted to have the easiest 2023 schedules, 11 finished with winning records (Saints, Colts, Texans, Lions, Jaguars, Steelers, Packers, Buccaneers, 49ers, Browns, and Bengals)
• Of the 15 teams predicted to have the hardest 2023 schedules, only 5 finished with a winning record (Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Vikings)
• Of the 7 teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules, all 7 had winning records (49ers, Bengals, Lions, Jaguars, Saints, Browns, and Steelers)
• Of the 7 teams forecast to finish at or below .500 and predicted to have harder than average schedules, all 7 had losing records and 6 went under their win total (Vikings, Broncos, Giants, Patriots, Commanders, and Cardinals)

Are strength of schedule projections accurate? 

Short answer: YES

Is strength of schedule important?

• Of the 15 teams that actually had the easiest 2023 schedules, 10 went to the playoffs (Cowboys, Packers, Texans, Bills, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Eagles, Lions, 49ers, and Chiefs) with 9-of-15 going over their win total
• Of the 17 teams that actually had the hardest 2023 schedules, only 4 went to the playoffs (Steelers, Browns, Ravens, and Rams) with 4-of-17 going over their win total

Trying to overachieve against a brutal schedule rarely happens (4 out of 17 in 2023).

Likewise, winning against an easy schedule and overachieving compared to expectations happens often (9 out of 15 in 2023).

2024 NFL Strength of Schedule vs. 2023 Actuals

Looking at actual strength of schedule team ranks from last season (2023) versus the projected 2024 strength of schedule, we can see which team schedules have improved or worsened year over year.