Even before the 2023 NFL regular season schedule is released on May 11, we’re able to calculate NFL Strength of Schedule for all 32 teams using projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers.

What NFL team has the easiest schedule in 2023:

Based on projected win totals, the New Orleans Saints have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2023 NFL season.

NFL teams with the easiest schedules in 2023:

  1. New Orleans Saints
  2. Atlanta Falcons
  3. Indianapolis Colts
  4. Carolina Panthers
  5. San Francisco 49ers
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What NFL team has the hardest schedule in 2023:

Based on projected win totals, the New England Patriots have the hardest strength of schedule for the 2023 NFL season.

NFL teams with the hardest schedules in 2023:

  1. New England Patriots
  2. Las Vegas Raiders
  3. Miami Dolphins
  4. Buffalo Bills
  5. Kansas City Chiefs

We’ve ranked easiest (#1) to hardest (#32) schedule for the 2023 season, plus projected win totals and current betting odds for every NFL team.

2023 NFL Strength of Schedule:

RankTeamProjected Win TotalCurrent Line
1New Orleans Saints9.359.5 +105
2Atlanta Falcons8.38.5 +110
3Indianapolis Colts6.86.5 -140
4Carolina Panthers7.757.5 -135
5San Francisco 49ers10.610.5 -120
6Chicago Bears7.757.5 -135
7Houston Texans6.36.5 +110
8Pittsburgh Steelers8.78.5 -130
9Tennessee Titans7.37.5 +110
10Seattle Seahawks8.78.5 -130
11Detroit Lions9.69.5 -120
12Jacksonville Jaguars9.79.5 -130
13Philadelphia Eagles10.8710.5 -150
14Green Bay Packers7.57.5 -110
15Los Angeles Rams7.157.5 +125
16Cleveland Browns9.19.5 +130
17Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.36.5 +110
18Dallas Cowboys9.79.5 -130
19New York Giants8.28.5 +120
20Cincinnati Bengals11.311.5 +110
21Baltimore Ravens9.69.5 -120
22Arizona Cardinals4.74.5 -130
23Denver Broncos8.58.5 -110
24Washington Commanders6.66.5 -120
25Minnesota Vikings8.68.5 -120
26New York Jets9.859.5 -145
27Los Angeles Chargers9.59.5 -110
28Kansas City Chiefs11.811.5 -140
29Buffalo Bills10.810.5 -140
30Miami Dolphins9.49.5 +100
31Las Vegas Raiders7.17.5 +130
32New England Patriots7.67.5 -120

2023 NFL Strength of Schedule, Visualization

While there aren’t perfect strength of schedule metrics, using 2023 Vegas win totals is much better than so many widely used metrics that use the previous season’s record.

Here is a visual breakdown of 2023 NFL strength of schedule rankings for each team, based on Vegas win totals.

2023 NFL Strength of Schedule infographic

How Accurate is Warren Sharp’s Model for determining Strength of Schedule?

Looking at last season’s strength of schedule model:

  • of the 10 teams predicted to have the hardest 2022 schedules, only 2 went to the playoffs (Bengals, Chiefs)
  • of the 7 teams forecast to have losing records but predicted to have easier than average schedules, 5 went over their win total (Giants, Lions, Commanders, Jaguars, Panthers)
  • of the 9 teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules, 6 went to the playoffs (Eagles, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Ravens, 49ers, Vikings)

Are Strength of Schedule projections accurate? 

Short answer: YES

  • of the 7 teams that actually had the easiest 2022 schedules, 6 went to the playoffs (Eagles, 49ers, Jaguars, Cowboys, Chargers, Chiefs)
  • of the 7 teams that actually had the hardest 2022 schedules, 2 went to the playoffs (Dolphins, Bengals)
  • of the 11 teams that actually had the hardest 2022 schedules, only 3 went over their win total (Bengals, Steelers, Jets)

Trying to exceed and overachieve against a brutal schedule rarely happens (2 out of top 7 in 2022) and likewise, winning against an easy schedule and overachieving compared to expectation was quite regular (only 1 out of top 7 did not).

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2023 NFL Strength of Schedule vs. 2022 Actuals

Looking at actual strength of schedule team ranks from last season (2022) versus projected 2023 strength of schedule, we can see which team schedules have improved or worsened year over year.

TeamForecast 2023 SOS2022 Actual SOS2023 Improvement Rank
New Orleans Saints1183
Atlanta Falcons2127
Indianapolis Colts3812
Carolina Panthers4213
San Francisco 49ers5220
Chicago Bears6282
Houston Texans7519
Pittsburgh Steelers8311
Tennessee Titans91313
Seattle Seahawks101115
Detroit Lions111710
Jacksonville Jaguars12323
Philadelphia Eagles13127
Green Bay Packers141515
Los Angeles Rams15265
Cleveland Browns16275
Tampa Bay Buccaneers17249
Dallas Cowboys18627
New York Giants191620
Cincinnati Bengals20298
Baltimore Ravens212513
Arizona Cardinals222315
Denver Broncos231029
Washington Commanders241922
Minnesota Vikings251426
New York Jets263210
Los Angeles Chargers27730
Kansas City Chiefs28432
Buffalo Bills292023
Miami Dolphins303018
Las Vegas Raiders31931
New England Patriots322225

NFL Rest Disparity based on the 2023 Schedule:

graph showing nfl rest edge and disparity with the 2023 schedule

Which NFL team has the best rest edge in 2023?

The New York Jets, Chicago Bears, and Washington Commanders have the best rest edges for the 2023 NFL season.

Those three teams have 12 more days of rest than their opponents.

Which NFL team has the worst rest edge in 2023?

The San Francisco 49ers have the worst rest edge for the 2023 NFL season.

The 49ers have 20 fewer days of rest than their opponents.

Read more about which teams are helped & hurt most by the NFL schedule.

More NFL Schedule content:

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