In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Thursday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON DAK PRESCOTT’S PASSING YARDS PROP BET
Based on a favorable matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, this looks like an ideal opportunity to take the over on Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop bet.
The Raiders are one of the most conservative defenses in the league, blitzing at the lowest rate (11.1%) and using zone coverage at the second-highest rate (76.8%), according to TruMedia/PFF.
Las Vegas uses the combination of zone coverage without a blitz on a league-high of 72% of opponents’ dropbacks (league average is 55%). This bodes well for Prescott, who has picked apart defenses under those circumstances.
When facing zone coverage with no blitz, Prescott is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt (NFL average: 7.5) while completing 77.3% of his passes (NFL average: 69.6%).
The Dallas Cowboys are favored by a touchdown, so this game could potentially get out of hand. However, we’ve seen Prescott post strong numbers in blowouts a few times this season.
Dallas has won three games by double digits this year, and Prescott has topped 290 yards in two of those contests (versus Giants, Falcons). So even if this turns into an easy win for the Cowboys, we can expect Prescott to post strong numbers based on this favorable matchup with the Raiders defense.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON MICHAEL PITTMAN’S RECEPTIONS PROP BET
Indianapolis Colts’ receiver Michael Pittman could potentially see an elevated target share in this matchup against an aggressive Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense.
The Bucs blitz on 37% of opponents’ dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league, and have demonstrated a tendency to adjust their blitz rate based on the matchup. Colts quarterback Carson Wentz tends to see a high blitz rate 一 31% compared to the league average of 25% 一 so it’s reasonable to expect to see a high blitz rate from Tampa in this matchup.
When facing a blitz, Wentz has targeted Pittman on 32% of his pass attempts, according to TruMedia/PFF, a significant increase from his 22% target share on non-blitz dropbacks.
With Tampa Bay favored by 2.5 points, there’s also the possibility Indy falls behind and Wentz is forced into an elevated passing volume in this game.
Pittman has at least six receptions in five of 11 games. Based on these trends and the possibility Indy is playing from behind, take the over if Pittman’s receptions prop is available at 5.5 or lower.
CONSIDER THE OVER ON MILES SANDERS’S RUSHING YARDS PROP BET
The Philadelphia Eagles finally have some stability on the offensive line, and their run game has greatly benefited from the consistency in recent weeks.
Since the start of 2020, Philly has used 35 different offensive line combinations, per TruMedia/PFF. Since Week 9, however, the combination of Jason Kelce, Lane Johnson, Jordan Mailata, Jack Driscoll, and Landon Dickerson has played 96% of the team’s snaps and more total snaps than any other Eagles’ line combo over the last two years.
Behind this offensive line formation, the Eagles are running the ball 61% of the time. And over the last three weeks, Eagles running backs have gained 5.3 yards per carry behind this group.
Against a strong New Orleans Saints defense, Miles Sanders picked up a season-high 94 yards on 16 carries in Week 11.
This week Sanders gets an even better matchup against a New York Giants defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry to running backs, ranked 27th in the league.
CONSIDER THE UNDER ON ANTONIO GIBSON’S RUSHING YARDS PROP BET
Washington running back Antonio Gibson has maintained a steady level of production this year, topping 60 rushing yards in six of 10 games. However, it may be difficult for him to reach that threshold in a tough matchup against the Seattle Seahawks.
Washington runs the ball out of 11 personnel 63% of the time, the second-highest rate in the league, which includes 60% of Gibson’s rush attempts.
The Seahawks’ defense is holding running backs to 3.9 yards per carry in 11 personnel, the third-lowest rate in the NFL.
If Washington falls behind (Seattle is favored by one point), that would further hurt Gibson’s chances of hitting the over. In addition to the likely increased pass rate, Washington is one of the slowest teams in the league, even when playing from behind.
According to TruMedia, Washington ranks 23rd in pace of play when trailing (27.7 seconds per play).
Though the spread of this game indicates it’s a toss-up, this will be Russell Wilson’s third game back from injury and he gets an extra day of rest and preparation for this showdown on Monday night. It’s certainly reasonable to think Seattle looks improved from its recent struggles.
Assuming Gibson’s rushing yards prop is available around 55-60 yards, the under looks like a strong bet.