It’s that time of year to start looking at player prop bets for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group.
Up first: which Quarterbacks are likely to go OVER their passing yards total?
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Why You Should Bet the OVER on Joe Burrow’s Passing Yards Prop Bet
- The Cincinnati Bengals have a Pass-heavy offense
- The Bengals have a much-improved receiving corps
- The Bengals will likely be playing from behind in most games, meaning Burrow will be throwing the ball more
Prior to his injury, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow was averaging 268.8 yards per game. If Burrow matches that rate and plays a full 17 games, he’d be on pace for 4,569 yards, easily hitting the over at three of the major legal online sportsbooks:
- 4200.5 passing yards at BetMGM
- 4249.5 passing yards at FanDuel
- 4250.5 passing yards at DraftKings
Based on the Bengals’ early-game play calling, it appears the coaching staff wants a pass-heavy offense. Through Week 10 (with Burrow at quarterback), no one threw the ball at a higher rate in the first quarter than Cincinnati (64 percent).
Replacing A.J. Green with rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase may also improve Burrow’s efficiency. Burrow completed just 45.3 percent of his throws to Green last season, compared to 73.5 percent when targeting Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins.
This upgrade should specifically help in the downfield passing game. According to Sports Info Solutions, Green led the Bengals in targets 15 or more yards downfield, but caught an NFL-worst 16.2 percent of those 一 and just 60 percent of his on-target throws, also worst in the league.
With the Bengals favored in just two games entering the season, Burrow should also be forced to throw at a high rate late in games, potentially padding his stats in garbage time.
Why You Should Bet the OVER on Derek Carr’s Passing Yards Prop Bet
- The Raiders young receiving corps is more experienced this year
- Derek Carr excels throwing downfield
- Favorable game scripts
In each of the last three years, Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has thrown for over 4,000 yards in 16 games, which should give us some confidence he can eclipse these numbers in a 17-game season.
Here are the current Over/Under lines for Derek Carr’s passing yards from several legal online sportsbooks.
- 4025.5 passing yards at BetMGM
- 4075.5 passing yards at FanDuel
- 4100.5 passing yards at DraftKings
Carr should also benefit from receivers Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards having a full offseason with the team. Though both receivers struggled as rookies, the limited offseason workouts in 2020 was plausibly a factor.
Ruggs (speed) and Edwards (size) have nice complementary traits to potentially open up the downfield passing game.
In 2020, Carr ranked 10th out of 26 qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage on throws 20+ yards downfield, but led the league in on-target rate. So if Ruggs and Edwards take a step forward in their development, this could turn into a potent downfield passing attack.
Game scripts should also force Carr to throw at a high rate this season. Currently, Las Vegas is an underdog of a field goal or more in nine contests.
Why You Should Bet the OVER on Tua Tagovailoa’s Passing Yards Prop Bet
- The Dolphins have new co-offensive coordinators
- No Ryan Fitzpatrick competing for his QB job
- The Dolphins receiving corps is much improved
- Likely in more favorable game scripts for passing
After a shaky rookie season, available props for Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa have a larger range than most, so be sure to shop around for the best number. Here’s where he stands at a few popular legal sportsbooks:
- 3850.5 passing yards at DraftKings
- 3899.5 passing yards at FanDuel
- 3950.5 passing yards at BetMGM
In his nine starts last year, Tagovailoa averaged 200.6 yards per game, which averages out of 3,409 in a 17-game schedule. That’s not ideal, but the offense in 2020 was clearly geared more towards Ryan Fitzpatrick’s skill set.
With new offensive coordinators (George Godsey and Eric Studesville) and added weapons in receivers Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle, there’s reason to believe the game plan will be better suited for Tagovailoa to shine.
Game scripts may also force the Dolphins to throw more often this year. In 2020, Miami held a lead on 58 percent of its second-half drives in Tagovailoa’s nine starts. In 2021, however, Miami is currently favored by a field goal or more in just six games.
