It’s that time of year to start looking at player props bets for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group. We took a look at Quarterback passing yards Over bets earlier in the week.
Up next: which quarterbacks are likely to go UNDER their passing yards total?
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Why You Should Bet the UNDER on Patrick Mahomes’ Passing Yards Prop Bet
- Unfavorable game scripts for passing
- Patrick Mahomes might rest in Week 18 if playoffs are clinched
- Chiefs offensive line may feature four new starters
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is capable of leading the NFL in passing in any given year. However, he’s never done it because it simply isn’t necessary for Kansas City to win games. As a result, it’s probably best to take the under on any of these lines:
- 5050.5 passing yards on DraftKings
- 5025.5 passing yards on BetMGM
- 5000.5 passing yards on FanDuel
The Kansas City Chiefs are currently favored by a touchdown or more in 10 games, which does not bode well for Mahomes’s yardage total. In 2020, Mahomes averaged just 275.3 yards when the Chiefs won by more than a touchdown, compared to 352 yards per game in all other contests.
There’s also a strong possibility Mahomes rests the final week of the season. In fact, Vegas appears to be expecting this, as Kansas City’s Week 18 game at Denver is one of just two games in which the Chiefs are not favored by more than a field goal.
The turnover on the Chiefs’ offensive depth chart is also a factor to consider. Sammy Watkins is gone, and no comparable replacement was added. There will also likely be four new starters on the offensive line, possibly including two rookies (Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith).
These changes likely won’t have a significant impact on the Chiefs’ long-term outlook, but it could cause the offense to be slightly less efficient in the early weeks of the season, suppressing Mahomes’s numbers.
Why You Should Bet the UNDER on Ryan Tannehill’s Passing Yards Prop Bet
- Possible downgrade at offensive coordinator due to loss of Arthur Smith
- More difficult schedule
In 2020, Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill averaged 238.7 yards per game, putting him on pace for 4,058 over a 17-game season. However, he greatly benefitted from the heavy play-action game plan of former offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.
With Smith now the Atlanta Falcons head coach, it may be difficult for Tannehill to hit the over on these numbers:
- 4175.5 passing yards on BetMGM
- 4150.5 passing yards on FanDuel
- 4050.5 passing yards on DraftKings
In 2020, Tannehill averaged 9.5 yards per attempt off play action, compared to 7.1 without 一 a 33.4% difference, the fifth-highest in the league. With Tennessee using play-action 34% of the time, the fourth-highest rate, this greatly affected Tannehill’s output.
Hopefully new offensive coordinator Todd Downing maintains consistent play-action usage, but his track record is worrisome. In 2017, as the Raiders offensive coordinator, Downing used play-action on 13% of dropbacks, the third-lowest rate in the NFL.
Tennessee is also likely to face a more difficult defensive schedule in 2021. A season ago, Tannehill faced the 22nd-ranked schedule in pass efficiency defense, but this year’s slate is projected to be the 10th most difficult.
Why You Should Bet the UNDER on Daniel Jones’s Passing Yards Prop Bet
- Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is bad at his job
- Schedule remains among the most difficult in NFL
During his sophomore year in the league, New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones averaged 210.2 yards per game, putting him on pace for 3,574 in a 17-game schedule.
While the Giants added some talent on offense, it’s still difficult to see Jones significantly out-pacing his past production to go over these numbers:
- 3800.5 passing yards on DraftKings
- 3800.5 passing yards on BetMGM
- Off the board on FanDuel
Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett suppresses offensive numbers with his outdated approach. It’s no coincidence his former quarterback Dak Prescott didn’t throw for over 4,000 yards until Garrett handed the play-calling duties to Kellen Moore in 2019 一 which led to Prescott eclipsing his previous career-high by over 1,000 yards.
One example of Garrett’s conservative mindset is the rarity with which his quarterbacks throw past the first-down marker. In 2020, Jones threw past the sticks on first and second down on just 32% of his attempts, the sixth-lowest rate in the league, according to Sports Info Solutions.
If Garrett wasn’t willing to feature a more aggressive passing attack in the absence of running back Saquan Barkley, it’s unlikely he opens up the offense with Barkley back in action.
Jones’s 2020 numbers may have been slightly suppressed by a tough schedule 一 the third most difficult in terms of pass efficiency defenses faced 一 but the 2021 slate is projected to be the second most treacherous path by the same metric.
