It’s that time of year to start looking at player props bets for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some over and under future bets worth considering at each position group.
Last week we took a look at which quarterbacks are likely to go over their passing yards props and who’s likely to fall under those numbers.
Up next: which running backs are likely to go OVER their rushing yards total?
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Why You Should Bet the OVER on Javonte Williams’s Rushing Yards Prop Bet
- Williams is better suited for the offense than Melvin Gordon
- Solid run-blocking offensive line
Denver Broncos second-round draft pick, running back Javonte Williams, is battling veteran Melvin Gordon for touches, but if the rookie wins the lion’s share of the workload, he should fly past these numbers available at some popular legal sportsbooks:
- 750.5 rushing yards on FanDuel
- 800.5 rushing yards on BetMGM
- 800.5 rushing yards on DraftKings
The Broncos roster construction appears to indicate this team will rely on a solid defense and the run game. As a result, Williams’s downhill running style probably makes him a better fit for the offense than Gordon.
In 2020, Gordon averaged 3.8 yards per carry between the tackles—below the NFL average (4.3). Meanwhile at North Carolina, Williams dominated between the tackles, picking up 6.1 yards per attempt, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Additionally, when contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage, Gordon was stuffed for zero or negative yards at the eighth highest rate in the league (49%). At the college level, Williams had the third-lowest rate in the nation (30%).
Assuming ball control is the game plan, Williams certainly appears better suited to keep the chains moving.
Broncos running backs will also benefit from a productive offensive line, which paved the way for 2.1 yards before contact in 2020, the eight best rate in the NFL.
Why You Should Bet the OVER on Najee Harris’s Rushing Yards Prop Bet
- Expected to dominate workload
- Steelers have renewed commitment to the run game
As Ben Roethlisberger’s career winds down, the Pittsburgh Steelers appear to be shifting the focus of the offense back to the run game. The first four picks of their 2021 NFL Draft went as follows: running back, tight end, offensive tackle, center.
Clearly, Pittsburgh prioritized rebuilding the run game through the draft, and with rookie running back Najee Harris expected to carry the load, he’s a good bet to eclipse these modest numbers:
- 975.5 rushing yards on BetMGM
- 990.5 rushing yards on DraftKings
- 1000.5 rushing yards on FanDuel
These numbers are low for a starting running back without a challenger to his job, likely due to expectations of Pittsburgh fielding one of the league’s worst offensive line 一 they ranked 32nd in our unit rankings.
A poor offensive line doesn’t bode well for an efficient run game, but Harris should make up for it with volume.
Harris’s only competition for touches appears to be Anthony McFarland Jr., who may be better suited to get his touches in the passing game. Through two preseason games, Harris has played 30 snaps with the starters compared to just five for McFarland.
In 2020, James Conner averaged 4.3 yards per carry behind that shaky offensive line. If Harris can match that rate, he would need to average only 13.3 carries per game in a 17-game season to reach 976 yards and hit the over at BetMGM.
Why You Should Bet the OVER on Mike Davis’s Rushing Yards Prop Bet
- No competition for carries in Falcons backfield
- Proven production behind poor offensive line play
Expectations are low for the Atlanta Falcons this season, so running back Mike Davis likely won’t have a ton of favorable game scripts. However, he’ll only need to average 45.6 yards per game over a 17-game season to hit the over on the lowest of these modest prop bets:
- 775.5 rushing yards on BetMGM
- 800.5 rushing yards on FanDuel
- 800.5 rushing yards on DraftKings
The obvious reason to bet on Davis is the lack of competition in the Falcons backfield. Qadree Ollison (23 career carries through two seasons) is his current backup, so there appears to be no viable threat to Davis’ job.
Low expectations for Atlanta’s offensive line might factor into these prop numbers for Davis, however, we’ve already seen Davis perform well behind mediocre line play.
In 2020, with the Carolina Panthers, Davis averaged 2.0 yards per attempt when contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage 一 third-best in the league behind Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb, per Sports Info Solutions.
Additionally, when Davis saw some extended action in 2018 with the Seahawks, he also averaged 2.0 yards per attempt when contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Knowing Davis is the type of runner who’s tough to bring down and can create for himself behind poor offensive line play, we should remain optimistic about his performance in Atlanta despite playing in less-than-ideal conditions.
