The Super Bowl LVI matchup is set between the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams, so let’s break down a few Super Bowl player props worth betting on this week.
Here’s a dive into some prop bets you should consider for Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase.
CONSIDER THE OVER: COOPER KUPP, TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS PROP BET
The over on Cooper Kupp’s receiving yards prop bet is 15-5 this season, and there’s a good chance that trend continues based on these available lines at some popular sportsbooks:
- 102.5 receiving yards on BetMGM (-115)
- 102.5 receiving yards on DraftKings Sportsbook (-140)
- 104.5 receiving yards on FanDuel Sportsbook (-114)
The Bengals have struggled to defend slot receivers all season, allowing a 70.2% completion rate (ranked 25th) and 8.6 yards per target (ranked 27th), according to Sports Info Solutions.
Kupp lines up in the slot on 73% of his routes and accounts for 44% of the Rams targets to players lined up in the slot.
Although Cincinnati has only allowed 100 receiving yards to six receivers (not including running back Najee Harris), each of those receivers did significant damage in the slot.
Receiver Total Rec-Yards Slot Rec-Yds Davante Adams 11-206 5-113 George Kittle 13-151 5-66 A.J. Brown 5-142 3-89 Mark Andrews 8-125 4-54 Darren waller 7-116 6-91 Mike Williams 5-110 2-88
Knowing the Bengals’ tendency to bring standard pressure 一 more on that in the discussion on Matthew Stafford’s props 一 we could also see an elevated target share for Kupp in this game.
Stafford has been blitzed on less than 20% of his dropbacks in nine games this year 一 a reasonable expectation for the Bengals’ blitz rate in the Super Bowl. In those nine contests, Kupp averaged 8.5 receptions for 108.6 yards, topping 100 yards five times.
That list includes the NFC Championship Game in which Kupp finished with 11 receptions for 142 yards against San Francisco.
CONSIDER THE OVER: JA’MARR CHASE, LONGEST RECEPTION PROP BET
Ja’Marr Chase has been the big-play threat in the Bengals offense this season, and against a Rams defense prone to giving up some big plays, the over on his longest receptions prop looks like a good bet on these available lines:
- 27.5 yards on BetMGM (-110)
- 27.5 yards on DraftKings Sportsbook (-110)
- 27.5 yards on FanDuel Sportsbook (-114)
In a one-score game the Rams blitz at the league’s fifth-highest rate (33.8%). And while that has the potential to be an effective strategy against Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ porous offensive line, it may also increase the chances for Burrow and Chase to connect on a big play downfield.
Chase has 14 receptions of at least 28 yards this season, half of which occurred when Burrow was blitzed, according to TruMedia 一 a significantly higher number than we would expect based on Burrow’s 19.7% blitz rate.
In fact, the Bengals have gained 30 or more yards on 7.8% of Burrow’s dropbacks versus the blitz, the highest rate in the league.
Burrow was blitzed at least 25% of the time in seven games this season. In five of those contests, Chase hit the over on his longest reception prop, with a gain of at least 34 yards in each of those games.
It’s also worth noting that the Rams give up 30-yard gains at the ninth highest rate in the league.
So while Los Angeles is likely to bring pressure and may succeed in slowing down the Bengals’ passing attack overall, that strategy will also increase the odds of Chase hitting the over on his longest reception prop.
Be sure to look through our Super Bowl 56 Hub for detailed coverage & analysis on the big game.
Also, check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Thursday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.