The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as penalty analysis from Joe Gibbs. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
Penalties are an under-discussed aspect of NFL success and failure. Average teams can become playoff contenders with good discipline, and good teams can become great simply by winning the penalty battle.
Let's look at how the Buffalo Bills performed from a penalty perspective in 2025 and where they can improve in 2026.
Buffalo Bills 2026 Penalty Outlook: Discipline, Flags & Hidden Edges
The Good
- The Buffalo offense accounted for 41.5% of the team’s overall penalties, below the NFL average of 47.7% in this category.
- The Bills ranked 29th in pre-snap penalty average.
- The offense was far more disciplined in the second half of games versus the first half, with penalty per half averages declining approximately 40% half to half.
- A positive byproduct from the above points: The offense ranked as a top-five beneficiary of automatic first downs via penalty in the second half of contests in 2025.
- The offense was a top-10 beneficiary of automatic first downs via penalty on third down.
The Bad
- The Buffalo defense generated the lowest penalty per-game average on opposing offenses in 2025, registering almost a 50% decline versus their 2024 average in this category.
- In raw per-game numbers, the defense ranked last in generating offensive holding penalties per game, at less than half the NFL average in this category.
- Expanding on the above point, in contrast to previous seasons, the defense was lackluster at generating both false starts and offensive holding on opposing teams. It may be scheme-related, or simply that Buffalo didn't have that elite-level defensive player to create havoc up front. The bottom line is that the dropoff was substantial versus their numbers in these categories from 2023 and 2024.
- The Bills ranked third overall for offensive holding penalties per game. This one category accounted for 29% of the Bills' overall penalties in 2025, far higher than the NFL average of 19.2%.
- The Bills were a top-five penalized team for special teams infractions.
- The Bills ranked third overall in net negative penalty per-game average.
Grade: B
The Bills' 2025 season ended in disappointing fashion again, via a dramatic overtime loss at Denver in the Divisional Round, prompting ownership to move on from Sean McDermott.
Joe Brady steps into a high-pressure role with “win-now” expectations. Buffalo ownership is banking on their coaching switch paying immediate dividends and justifying their bold offseason move.
Buffalo enters the season among the top tier of AFC contenders, and as long as Josh Allen remains healthy, they should make the playoffs.
Having four games against the hapless Jets and Dolphins is a luxury Buffalo benefits from, and the coveted No. 1 overall seed in the AFC is not out of the question if the Bills can navigate their early-season gauntlet.
Ultimately, success for this team will be measured by postseason wins, which makes the goal straightforward.
It is Super Bowl or bust for the Buffalo Bills in 2026.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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- Penalty analysis for all 32 NFL teams
