It’s that time of year to start looking at player props bets for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group.
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Why You Should Bet the OVER on Darnell Mooney’s Receiving Yards Prop Bet
- Will be a full-time starter, unlike his rookie year
- Improved quarterback play, especially if Justin Fields starts
As a rookie in 2020, Chicago Bears wide receiver Darnell Mooney averaged 39.4 receiving yards per game. Over a 17-game season, that would put him on pace for 670.4 yards. With only a slight boost in production needed, Mooney is a good bet to hit the over on these available prop bets:
- 700.5 receiving yards on BetMGM
- 705.5 receiving yards on DraftKings
- Off the board on FanDuel
Mooney’s rookie-year production was steady, but he should out-pace those numbers simply by taking the field more often. Though Mooney played at least 60 percent of the Bears’ snaps from Week 2 on, he didn’t become a full-time starter until Week 8.
From Week 8 through the end of the season, Mooney averaged 6.8 targets per game (up from 5.3 in his first seven games) and 43.9 yards per game (up from 33.7).
According to Sports Info Solutions, 44% of Mooney’s targets came at least 10 yards downfield in 2020. However, only 45% of those targets were catchable, the second-lowest rate in the league.
Mooney probably deserves some portion of the blame for that low rate, but improved quarterback play is certain to help.
Though most Bears fans are understandably hoping rookie quarterback Justin Fields wins the job, Andy Dalton should also offer an upgrade, as his downfield accuracy rates easily outpaced former Bears starter Mitchell Trubisky.
Catchable Pass Rate by Distance Downfield, 2020 Season
| Player | 10-19 yards | 20+ yards |
|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 71.00% | 36.00% |
| Andy Dalton | 79.00% | 50.00% |
| Justin Fields | 88.60% | 74.20% |
With more consistent quarterback play and a full season in a starting role, Mooney looks like one of the safest bets to hit the over on his receiving yards props.
