It’s that time of year to start looking at player props bets for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group.
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Why You Should Bet the OVER on Henry Ruggs’s Receiving Yards Prop Bet
- Loss of WR Nelson Agholor frees up targets
- Derek Carr excels throwing downfield
- Likely to have plenty of favorable game scripts
One of the quarterbacks I highlighted as a good bet to hit his passing yards over was Las Vegas Raiders’ quarterback Derek Carr. For similar reasons, second-year receiver Henry Ruggs is also a strong candidate to go over his receiving yard prop bets:
- 725.5 receiving yards on BetMGM
- 725.5 receiving yards on DraftKings
- 750.5 receiving yards on FanDuel
The loss of Nelson Agholor (signed with New England Patriots) opens up 82 targets (5.1 per game). Veterans John Brown and Willie Sneed were added in free agency, but the bulk of those targets are expected to be funneled to Ruggs and Bryan Edwards.
As a rookie, Ruggs saw 19 targets at 15 or more yards downfield (44% of his total), but still fell well short of Agholor’s usage (36 targets). Assuming Ruggs sees a significant boost in his downfield targets, he should thrive in the Raiders’ offense.
Ruggs should be productive in the deep passing game because Carr excels as a downfield passer, ranking sixth out of 29 qualified quarterbacks in catchable pass rate at least 15 yards downfield, according to Sports Info Solutions. And this rate has been stable over the last few years:
Derek Carr on Throws 15+ Yards Downfield
| Year | Comp Pct | Catchable Pass Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 48.5% | 74.0% |
| 2019 | 48.8% | 68.3% |
| 2018 | 44.0% | 65.9% |
| 2017 | 35.1% | 71.7% |
| 2016 | 46.0% | 73.2% |
Las Vegas is also an underdog of a field goal or more in nine contests, which should create plenty of pass-friendly game scripts to help pad Ruggs’s numbers.
In 13 games last season, Ruggs averaged 34.8 yards per game 一 on pace for 591.1 over a 17-game schedule. Given the extra targets available and the likelihood many of them are part of Las Vegas’ deep passing attack, it’s reasonable to expect Ruggs to add the extra eight yards per game necessary to hit the over.
