The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the New Orleans Saints could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
New Orleans Saints 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-Tyler Shough wasn’t entirely overwhelmed as a rookie and has an opportunity to excel in his sophomore campaign after the organization made some meaningful additions to the offense. Shough was 23rd among 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play and 20th in success rate, and the cupboards were largely bare at wideout behind Chris Olave. The Saints signed Travis Etienne to headline their backfield, and they invested a first-round pick in Jordyn Tyson, a third-round pick in Oscar Delp, and fourth and sixth-round picks, respectively, in Bryce Lance and Barion Brown, providing the running back, wide receiver, and tight end rooms with an infusion of talent.
-New Orleans was 32nd in red-zone touchdown rate last year at 44.4%, and the NFL average was 57.3%. Their scoring woes didn’t end there, either. The Saints were 32nd in field goal percentage (71.4%).
-The Saints had a soft schedule last year, playing the sixth-easiest schedule. Still, they have the second-easiest strength of schedule in 2026 and went 6-5 against non-playoff teams last season.
Reasons for the Under
-New Orleans was nails on defense on third downs. They were third in third-down conversion rate allowed to opponents at 34.3% versus the NFL average of 39.5%. That could regress in 2026.
-Travis Etienne should be an upgrade in the Saints’ backfield, but the Saints were 31st in yards per carry (3.7), 30th in rushing yards as a percentage of total yards, and 29th in first downs per rush attempt. Meanwhile, among 43 running backs with at least 150 touches last season, Etienne was 27th in yards per carry (4.3) and 33rd in percentage of rushes that went for zero or negative yards.
-The Saints are putting a lot of eggs in the basket of rookies and Etienne to add juice to an offense that lacked big-play ability and consistency with successfully moving the chains last year. New Orleans was 23rd in the percentage of plays that gained 10-plus yards in 2025, and they were dead last in the percentage of plays that gained 20-plus yards. They were also 26th in offensive success rate.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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Warren Sharp’s 600+ page full-color PDF, the 2026 Football Preview, is unlike anything you have read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps and stat pages, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought processes abound in every team chapter and article.
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- Team Chapters previews are in-depth, data-driven & full of actionable info
- Fantasy Football player profiles, predictions, and ranks
- Vegas Odds forecast team wins, division rankings, lines for all 2026 games
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- Front Office Analysis positional spending, roster construction & cap analysis
- Reasons to bet over/under win totals & analysis of futures betting market
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- Rankings for every positional unit on every team with analysis
- Penalty analysis for all 32 NFL teams
