Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
49ers Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the 49ers win this season?
The 49ers are predicted to win 10 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: 49ers Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
The offense led the league in yards per play and was top 10 in both passing and rushing EPA/play with Jimmy Garoppolo.
Trey Lance has a large range of outcomes, but his floor isn’t much lower than that of Garoppolo as the receivers led the league in yards after the catch, but the ceiling is so much higher with the added mobility. Lance’s upside and the scheme suggest the offense will continue its efficiency with the third overall pick under center.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
Variance has not been kind to the 49ers over the past two seasons although no guarantee of improvement in 2022, regression is likely. In 2020 the 49ers finished last in adjusted games lost and 2021 was just a slight improvement, finishing with the third highest adjusted games lost.
Among other “regression-likely” stats, the 49ers also finished bottom five in defensive third downs allowed over expectation and fumble luck.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
The 49ers have the 13th easiest strength of schedule, by far the division’s easiest strength of schedule. In the opening six weeks, the 49ers have the league’s second-easiest schedule as four opponents are projected to win less than seven games. It is easy to envision the 49ers starting, at worst, 4-2.
Why You Should Bet the Under: 49ers Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The potential for the 49ers to become a pass funnel defense exists as the defensive line is a strength while the depth at corner and safety is a potential weakness. In 2021 the 49ers were second-best in EPA/rush and 10th-worst in EPA/DB. Forecasted to play the fifth-most difficult schedule of passing the play of the passing defense will be highlighted.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
Red zone efficiency of the offense and defense could potentially change in 2021. The 49ers finished with a 66.4% red zone touchdown rate while the defense allowed a 54.3% touchdown rate. That 10.1 % differential will be hard to repeat in 2022.
San Francisco 49ers Strength of Schedule:
The 49ers are ranked #13 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them a slightly easier than average schedule for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.