In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
Consider the over on Miles Sanders’s rushing yards
Miles Sanders is off to a nice start for the Philadelphia Eagles and draws a great matchup against a floundering Washington Commanders defense.
Miles Sanders rushing yards prop, current line:
Based on adjusted rushing yards before contact allowed (which caps yardage at 10 to minimize the effect of long runs), Washington’s run defense ranks dead last, allowing 2.2 yards before contact per attempt to running backs, per TruMedia.
Additionally, the Commanders are allowing at least three yards before contact on 34% of attempts by opposing running backs.
Through the first two weeks, Detroit’s D’Andre Swift and Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne both hit the over on their rushing yards prop against the Washington defense.
Sanders has hit his over in both of his games, so expect this number to climb from 58.5, where it sat last week against the Vikings, but I’ll still be on the over anywhere up to 70 yards.
The biggest risk in betting this prop is the potential for the game to get out of hand early, limiting Sanders’s touches in the second half.
Consider the over on Matt Ryan’s interceptions
Matt Ryan’s interceptions prop has been available at 0.5 with plus-money on the over in each of the first two weeks 一 the over has been a winner in both games.
Matt Ryan’s interceptions prop, current line:
The Colts will likely try to employ a run-heavy game plan to keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’s hands, but as soon as they fall behind, they’ll be forced to lean on the passing attack.
The Kansas City defense has just one interception through two games, but other numbers indicate this could become an opportunistic defense. When teams have thrown 10 or more yards downfield against the Chiefs, the defense has made a play on the ball at a league-high rate of 33%, according to TruMedia.
Assuming this number is still available at 0.5, take the over on Ryan’s interception total.
Consider the over on Darnell Mooney’s receiving yards
With just two catches for four yards through two games, Darnell Mooney’s season couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start 一 so what better time to bet the over?
Darnell Mooney receiving yards prop, current line:
Despite the lack of production, Mooney remains the top pass-catcher in this offense, running a route on 38 of Justin Fields‘s 40 dropbacks, per TruMedia. No other Bears wide receiver has run more than 29 routes on the year.
In addition to the likely positive regression for Mooney, he draws a great matchup against Houston Texans rookie cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.
On last week’s podcast, I recommended the over on Courtland Sutton based on his matchup with Stingley 一 he finished with 122 yards, as Denver threw at Stingley every chance they got.
Expect a similar approach for the Bears, which likely leads to increased targets for Mooney.
Mooney’s yardage prop was available around 50 yards in each of the first two weeks, but it should fall based on early results. If it drops below 45, I’ll be on the over.
Consider the under on Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards
Last week’s breakout performance by Tua Tagovailoa (469 yards, 6 touchdowns) gives us a great opportunity to play the under on his passing yards this week against the Buffalo Bills.
Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop, current line:
When the game is within one score, Buffalo and Miami rank 23rd and 30th, respectively in pace of play, per TruMedia.
The Dolphins’ slow pace is expected based on how Mike McDaniels’s offense ran at San Francisco last year (ranked 26th in pace of play in a one-score game).
Although the Bills played fast a year ago (ranked fourth), this recent trend isn’t too surprising given the loss of Brian Daboll and first-time play-caller Ken Dorsey taking over. As I discussed in some preseason props, expect Dorsey and Sean McDermott to be less aggressive this season.
Tagovailoa hit the over in each of his first two games with the line set to 230.5 and 254.5. Although Buffalo’s defense presents more of a challenge than Baltimore last week, his early production likely dictates the line stays in a similar range.
As long as this number stays above 250, I’ll be on the under.
Consider the under on Najee Harris’s rushing yards
The under on Najee Harris’s rushing yards has been a winner in each of the first two weeks, and he draws a tough matchup on Thursday against the Cleveland Browns.
Najee Harris rushing yards prop, current line:
Cleveland has allowed 0.5 yards before contact to opposing running backs, the league’s third-lowest rate through two weeks, according to TruMedia. That’s bad news for a Steelers offensive line that paved the way for just 0.4 yards before contact for Harris against the Bengals and Patriots.
This is likely not a small sample size situation for the Steelers either, as they ranked 30th in yards before contact created for running backs in 2021, averaging 0.9.
Unless you think the Steelers pull off an upset (Cleveland is favored by 5.5), the under on Harris’s rushing yards looks like a strong play in this matchup.