In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
Consider the under on Derrick Henry’s rushing yards
Derrick Henry has yet to hit 100 rushing yards in a game this season and draws a tough matchup against the Indianapolis Colts this week.
Derrick Henry rushing yards prop, current line:
- Take the under at 77.5 or higher
The line on Henry’s rushing yards prop has been dropping each week, but he finally hit the over against the Raiders, so hopefully it doesn’t fall any further.
As discussed prior to Week 2 一 when we got an easy win on Henry’s under against the Bills 一 the Titans’ offensive line is creating no room for Henry.
According to TruMedia, Henry has been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 59% of his carries, and has been forced to pick up 92% of his yardage after contact.
Henry has always done significant damage after contact, but entering this year only 77% of his career yardage had come after contact and never more than 85% in a given season.
The Indianapolis Colts’ defense might be the last unit Henry wants to see right now, as it’s holding running backs to a league-best 0.3 yards before contact per attempt.
Consider the under on Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards
The under on Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop has hit three weeks in a row, and it’s worth betting on that trend to continue against the Houston Texans.
Austin Ekeler rushing yards prop, current line:
- Take the under at 50.5 or higher
The Los Angeles Chargers’ offensive line is a mess 一 they’ve already had four different offensive line combinations play at least 25 snaps 一 and Ekeler’s run-game production has suffered as a result.
Through three games, Ekeler is averaging a league-worst 0.09 yards before contact per attempt, according to TruMedia/PFF.
Due to the constant contact in the backfield, 96% of Ekeler’s yardage has come after contact.
The Chargers are favored by 4.5 points in this matchup against Houston, so Ekeler could see a slightly increased workload, but that doesn’t mean he’ll have room to run.
Houston’s run defense has been effective, contacting running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage on 49% of their carries, the eighth highest rate in the league.
The line on Ekeler’s rushing yards has been available at 52.5 or higher every game this season and with the Chargers favored, it shouldn’t drop much lower.
Consider the over on Nick Chubb’s longest rush
Against a weak Atlanta Falcons defense, we can expect Nick Chubb to have some open running lanes, so it’s a good time to bet the over on his longest rush prop.
Nick Chubb longest rush prop, current line:
- Take the over at 18.5 or lower
When Chubb is given at least three yards before contact, he gains 15 or more yards on 21% of his carries, per TruMedia/PFF. That’s consistent with his 23% rate over the previous two seasons.
Excluding short-yardage situations, the Falcons have allowed at least three yards before contact at the league’s sixth highest rate (29%), so Chubb should have some room to run in this matchup.
Chubb has produced a run of at least 20 yards in every game this year, and seven straight games dating back to 2021.
With Cleveland favored by 2.5 points, expect a healthy workload for Chubb and the Falcons’ defense should provide some opportunities for big plays.
Consider the over on Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards
The Miami Dolphins’ defense looks like a favorable matchup for the Bengals’ passing attack and a good opportunity to bet the over on Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop on Thursday night.
Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop, current line:
- 71.5 receiving yards at BetMGM
When opponents line up in a two-high safety look, Joe Burrow becomes a more conservative quarterback and it cuts into Chase’s workload.
Dating back to last season, Burrow throws 10 or more yards downfield on 25% of his attempts versus two-high safety formations, compared to 38% versus all other coverage alignments, according to TruMedia.
So far this year, Chase has seen a 20% target share versus two-high coverage and 38% against all other formations.
This trend likely leads to an increased workload against a Dolphins defense which ranks 30th in two-high usage, using it on just 23% of opponent dropbacks, per Trumedia.
It’s also worth noting Chase has seen a 35% target share versus the blitz, and Miami remains among the most blitz-heavy teams under defensive coordinator Josh Boyer.
Miami has blitzed on 35% of opponent dropbacks when the game is within a touchdown, per TruMedia/PFF.