As the Detroit Lions (3-1) head to AT&T Stadium to face the Dallas Cowboys (3-2) in Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season, all eyes are on the Lions’ dynamic rushing duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
This matchup presents a classic strength-versus-weakness scenario, pitting Detroit’s potent ground game against Dallas’ struggling run defense.
With the Lions boasting one of the league’s top offensive lines and the Cowboys allowing the ninth-most rushing yards this season, both Gibbs and Montgomery are poised for potentially big performances.
This article will delve into the most intriguing player props for these two running backs, analyzing their recent performances, the matchup dynamics, and the statistical trends that could shape their production in this crucial NFC showdown.
Week 6 Prediction: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 59.5 rushing yards (+100) & Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards
The Lions are poised to exploit the Cowboys’ vulnerable run defense in Week 6, with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson likely to “place a major emphasis on ‘pounding the rock'” against Dallas.
This game plan aligns perfectly with Jahmyr Gibbs‘ skill set and recent performance.
Gibbs has proven himself a “home-run threat” with dynamic speed that can turn any small advantage into a breakaway play.
His ability to accelerate quickly through holes is evident in his five designed runs of at least 15 yards this season, tied for fourth-most in the league.
Gibbs’ short-area athleticism and ability to change direction while maintaining speed make him particularly dangerous in space and capable of breaking tackles for longer runs.
The Cowboys’ defense has shown vulnerability to explosive runs in their home games.
Against the Saints and Ravens, Dallas allowed 15 explosive runs to players like Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Justice Hill, and Lamar Jackson.
Notably, they conceded five rushing plays of 15-plus yards including a 26-yard touchdown run by Henry.
With Dallas missing key pieces on their defensive front, Detroit is likely to maintain an aggressive ground-and-pound strategy.
This approach should provide Gibbs ample opportunity to surpass 59.5 rushing yards and break at least one run over 14.5 yards.
Given Gibbs’ recent performances (83 and 78 yards in his last two games) and his impressive 5.3 yards per carry average, these props offer significant value in what should be a run-heavy game plan for the Lions.
Subscribe to the Sharp Football Email Newsletter to receive ONE FREE BET from NFL expert Warren Sharp this weekend:
Week 6 Prediction: David Montgomery Over 59.5 rushing yards (+105)
The return of center Frank Ragnow, boasting an 82.2 Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade (seventh-best in the league), is set to significantly enhance the Lions’ ground game.
This boost should benefit both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery against the Cowboys’ vulnerable run defense.
Dallas’ struggles against the run are well-documented and persistent.
Since the 2023 season, the Cowboys have allowed successful plays on 45.4% of rush attempts with a base front — the fourth-worst rate in the NFL.
This weakness aligns perfectly with the Lions’ strength. They’ve executed successful plays on 44.6% of rush attempts against base fronts since 2023 — the fifth-best rate in the league.
While Gibbs presents a significant threat, Montgomery has established himself as the Lions’ primary between-the-tackles runner. This role could prove crucial against the Cowboys’ porous run defense.
Even in Week 4, when Montgomery saw a season-low 13 touches, he still managed to produce 80 yards.
Given the Cowboys’ tendency for slow starts, if the Lions can establish an early lead, they’re likely to lean heavily on their run game to control the clock, potentially increasing Montgomery’s workload.
Gibbs’ recent form, higher yards per carry, and big-play ability make him an attractive option for a rushing ladder to exceed 100 yards.
However, the Lions’ probable committee approach could limit individual opportunities for either back to reach the century mark.
This makes Montgomery’s more modest Over 59.5 yards proposition an appealing and potentially more attainable target.
Considering Montgomery’s efficiency, the Lions’ strong offensive line, and the favorable matchup against Dallas’ run defense, the Over 59.5 rushing yards for Montgomery at +105 offers significant value in what promises to be a run-heavy game plan for Detroit.