Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Chargers Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Chargers win this season?
The Chargers are predicted to win 10.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Chargers Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
The Chargers’ offense is likely to improve in terms of fumble luck in 2022. They put the ball on the ground a league-low 10 times, but only recovered three fumbles, nearly three recoveries under expectation.
The defense is due for an improvement in third down conversions after allowing a league-high 49.5% conversion rate on third down, 8.6% over expectation. Positive regression on offense and defense should benefit the Chargers in 2022.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
The offensive line, which finished in the top half of the league in both pass and run block win rate, made another significant addition of Zion Johnson in the draft. What was a weakness in Herbert’s first year under center will be a strength for the Chargers.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
The Chargers have taken full advantage of an elite quarterback on a rookie contract and spent in the offseason building one of the most complete rosters in the league.
Brandon Staley’s defense should be much improved with veteran additions of Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson as well as additions on the interior line. The defensive unit, which struggled and finished bottom ten in EPA/play, made improvements to the line and secondary and is primed for a big leap in Year 2 under Staley.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Chargers Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The Chargers added Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Jackson to improve the interior of the defensive line but will it be enough as the run defense was a complete sieve and responsible for the Chargers missing the playoffs in 2021?
The run defense was last in the league in success rate allowed, third-worst on first down success rate allowed, and finished in the bottom half of explosive runs allowed the second-highest EPA per rush. The run defense can’t be worse, but will it improve enough?
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
Although not as difficult as their division mates, the Chargers are still in the bottom half of the league in strength of schedule with the 13th most difficult schedule. The AFC is loaded with offensive talent, making it difficult to finish with a winning record in divisional games.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
Justin Herbert is an incredible young quarterback, but new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi did not utilize the quarterback to his fullest capabilities. Herbert averaged a below league average 7.39 air yards per attempt and under 30% of passes over 10 air yards on first down. It is unknown if Lombardi will dial up aggressiveness on first down after working with Drew Brees for many years.
Los Angeles Chargers Strength of Schedule:
The Chargers are ranked #20 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them a harder than average schedule for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.