Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Colts Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Colts win this season?
The Colts are predicted to win 10.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Colts Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
Chris Ballard swapped Carson Wentz for Matt Ryan while saving $3 million in cap space. Although older, Ryan is undoubtedly an upgrade over Wentz as a passer.
Wentz has finished second-worst and sixth-worst in CPOE the past two seasons with a -2.0% and -3.6% CPOE while Ryan has finished in the top half of the league with 1.8% and 1.2% CPOE. On passes in which the quarterback was not pressured, Ryan was fourth-best as only 6.3% of passes were incomplete due to an inaccurate pass, whereas Wentz was near the bottom of the league at 12.7%.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
In 2021, the Colts were 2-5 in one-score games, including 0-4 in games decided by a field goal or less and 0-2 in overtime. With improved quarterback play and a slight improvement in red zone defense, which allowed touchdowns on 64% of drives, the Colts should expect positive regression in close games.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
Based on win Vegas win totals, the Colts have the third-easiest schedule of opponents. The Colts have the fortune of playing the Broncos and rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett on a Thursday in Week 5, as rookie head coaches have struggled on short rest Thursday night football games.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Colts Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The Colts were tied at the top of the league with a +14-turnover margin. Likely unsustainable in 2022, the defense had the fourth-highest interception total and second-highest fumble total, recovering 3.1 fumbles over expectation.
Both totals could see regression. The Colts were also very fortunate in penalty margin, finishing second in penalty differential which led to the finishing third in penalty EPA on defense and ninth in penalty EPA on offense.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The Colts are starting the fifth straight season with a new starting quarterback. Tailoring the offense around Matt Ryan and the defense adjusting to Gus Bradley’s system could cause the Colts some early season struggles. Frank Reich is 0-4 in season openers and 5-9 in September as a head coach and another slow start is in the range of outcomes.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
Having the seventh-worst rest/prep ranking the Colts play a league-leading six games in which the opponent has over 7 days of rest. Also working to the Colts’ disadvantage are three short-week road games, including two in the final five games.
Indianapolis Colts Strength of Schedule:
The Colts are ranked #3 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them one of the easiest schedules for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.