Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Panthers Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Panthers win this season?
The Panthers are predicted to win 6.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Panthers Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
In March, the Panthers restructured five contracts, clearing over $30 million in salary cap space, which was a signal that the Panthers were in win-now mode and looking to upgrade at the quarterback position.
Although the Panthers organization might benefit the most in the long run by starting Matt Corral, head coach Matt Rhule is 10-23 in his first two seasons and would not likely survive another losing season.
Baker Mayfield becomes Rhule’s third different starting quarterback in as many seasons, but the former first overall pick has the highest ceiling of any of the previous quarterbacks.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
The Panthers can improve on the 2-6 record in one-score games in 2022.
Finishing 2021 with a -13 turnover margin, the Panthers are likely to see positive regression in terms of fumble luck after finishing with -4.6 fumbles recovered over expectation.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
The Panthers bolstered the offensive line, landing tackle Ikem Ekwonu in the draft and signing Bradley Bozeman and Austin Corbett to upgrade the interior of the offensive line.
The loss of Christian McCaffrey had a large impact on the passing game as Carolina’s EPA per dropback dropped from 0.07 to -0.26 and the sack rate jumped from 2.2% to 9.5% without the running back on the field.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Panthers Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The Carolina Panthers’ defense finished second in Pass Rush Win Rate and eighth in third down conversion rate.
Regression for the defense is likely as the defensive line was the healthiest unit in the league in 2021 and the defense stopped 1.2% third downs over expectation. The defense also lost Hasaan Reddick.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The Panthers’ five victories were against rookie starting quarterbacks or quarterbacks missing wide receiving options.
Two victories included Zach Wilson’s and Davis Mills’s first starts, Colt McCoy, Matt Ryan post-Calvin Ridley suspension, and Jameis Winston.
The Panthers failed to win against teams with proficient quarterbacks and will need a large jump in offensive output if the Panthers are to win and improve upon last year’s record.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
The Panthers have finished under their pre-season win total in both years Matt Rhule has been head coach. Rhule finished bottom 10 in Football Outsiders’ Aggressiveness Index and the Panthers ran on early downs in the first half of games at the fifth-highest rate in 2021.
Rhule is ironically the longest-tenured coach in the NFC South, however, in his two years has not provided evidence that he gives the team a coaching edge.
Carolina Panthers Strength of Schedule:
The Panthers are ranked #14 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them a slightly easier than average schedule for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.