Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Patriots Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Patriots win this season?
The Patriots are predicted to win 8.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Patriots Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
Bill Belichick is the best at adapting each game plan to each opponent. The only time Belichick went under the season win total in the past five years was with Cam Newton as his starting quarterback.
Mac Jones is a great fit in the Patriot system and Belichick seemed more comfortable planning around the pocket passing quarterback. The Patriots are likely to lean on the run game, but Jones gives the coach a capable quarterback when called upon.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
The Patriots’ offseason is likely foreshadowing the upcoming season. In a copycat league, Belichick usually does the opposite and continues to build this offense around being able to run the ball. The Patriots have a plethora of running backs and will keep games close giving themselves a chance to win every week.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
New England won 10 games in 2021 and were the largest underachievers of their Pythagorean win total. The 2021 season was a smashing success until the bye week and instead of helping the team with a rookie quarterback, the Patriots struggled following the bye week finishing the season with a 1-3 record.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Patriots Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The Patriots face the eighth-hardest strength of schedule after facing the eighth-easiest in 2021 including three short-week road games. In addition to the third-biggest jump in strength of opponents, the Patriots have the second worst net rest advantage as they play two games with a rest advantage and are at a rest disadvantage four times.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
Bill Belichick dominated inferior opponents winning seven games by more than two touchdowns, which skews the season-long metrics. The Patriots beat two teams with a winning record, but those wins were against the Titans who played without Brown, Jones, and Henry and the Bills in a game in which the Patriots threw three passes. The Patriots face much stiffer competition in 2022.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
The Patriots finished 8.6 net field goals above expectation as opponents made 67% of field goals while Nick Folk made 92%. The Patriots are not going to be able to sustain that run of field goal luck on both sides.
In the red zone, the Patriots’ offense converted 5% over expectation and a had 63% touchdown rate while the defense allowed -2.5% conversion rate over expectation and 54% touchdown rate. Luck and a tougher schedule will cause regression for the Patriots.
New England Patriots Strength of Schedule:
The Patriots are ranked #25 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them a harder than average schedule for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.