In this weekly NFL player props preview, we’ll highlight some bets you should consider for the upcoming week. Since player props typically aren’t posted until closer to game day, this early preview will look at some particularly favorable or unfavorable matchups that could become actionable.
This doesn’t mean we should automatically bet on these props, but these are some of the first players to check when lines are posted. Hopefully, oddsmakers haven’t identified the same trends as us, and we can find favorable value on these player props.
Also, be sure to check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Thursday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
CONSIDER THE UNDER ON NICK CHUBB’S RUSHING YARDS PROP BET
Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski said the team was all-in on chasing a victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night, but his play-calling and use of Nick Chubb indicated otherwise.
Chubb carried the ball 12 times while playing only 30 snaps 一 a season-low 42% of Cleveland’s offensive plays. Backup D’Ernest Johnson, filling in for the injured Kareem Hunt, took the field for 39 offensive snaps.
Considering Pittsburgh’s issues stopping the run, it’s unlikely Chubb’s decreased workload was strategic. Rather, Cleveland was probably trying to limit touches for their 26-year-old workhorse, who is under contract through the 2024 season.
A similar approach against the Cincinnati Bengals this week is likely. There’s also the increased probability Cincinnati’s red-hot offense pulls away from the Browns early, forcing Cleveland into a pass-heavy game plan, further diminishing Chubb’s workload on the ground.
Chubb’s rushing yards prop has been available over 80 yards in all but two games this season and has not dropped below 70 all year. Assuming Chubb’s rushing yards prop remains near its usual number, the under looks like a strong bet.
CONSIDER THE UNDER ON MIKE GESICKI’S RECEPTIONS PROP BET
Teams are targeting tight ends 2.0 fewer times per game against the New England Patriots than against other opponents, the largest negative difference in the league. The Miami Dolphins contributed to that trend back in Week 1, when Mike Gesicki finished with just three targets and zero receptions, while playing a season-low 21 snaps against the Patriots.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Kyle Dugger has been the Patriots’ primary man in coverage against tight ends and has been the league’s fourth most valuable defender while defending the positions based on their Total Points metric.
Gesicki has been a significant part of the Dolphins’ offense lately, with 30 targets over his last four games, but that could work to our advantage, as he should maintain a high number on his receptions prop 一 it’s been set to 4.5 in each of the last three weeks.
Since the Dolphins have been eliminated from playoff contention, there’s also the possibility Gesicki’s workload is lightened to make room for others to see the field.
Rookie tight end Hunter Long, the team’s third-round pick, has played sparingly this season, and it would make sense for Miami to give him an increased role in the final game of the year,
CONSIDER THE OVER ON JAKOBI MYERS’S RECEPTIONS PROP
The Miami Dolphins defensive approach should help increase Jakobi Meyers’s usage in the New England Patriots season finale.
Miami is among the most aggressive teams when it comes to blitzing and playing man coverage, both of which bode well for Meyer’s target share in this game.
According to TruMedia/PFF, Miami plays the highest rate of man coverage (47%). When facing man coverage, Meyers sees a 29% target share, compared to 20% versus zone or combo coverages.
Miami also blitzes at the league’s highest rate (39%), per TruMedia/PFF. Against the blitz, Meyers sees a team-high 29% target share, compared to 22% versus non-blitz dropbacks.
Back in Week 1 against the Dolphins, Meyers saw nine total targets, seven of which came against the blitz and seven against man coverage (obviously, some overlap between the two).
Meyers’s receptions prop is typically available at 4.5 一 a number he’s gone over in four of his last five games. Since Meyers has seen strong usage down the stretch and we expect increased opportunities against Miami, the over looks like a smart bet if it’s available at his usual number.