Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Ravens Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Ravens win this season?
The Ravens are predicted to win 9.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Ravens Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
The 2021 Ravens had the highest adjusted games lost in the Football Outsiders database.
Leading the league with the most adjusted games lost on offense and second in games lost on defense, the Ravens are almost a guarantee to have better injury luck.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
John Harbaugh is one of the league’s top coaches and has finished with a winning record in four consecutive seasons until last year.
With Lamar Jackson under center, Harbaugh has prioritized getting the lead early and dominating on the ground with the lead.
In the previous two seasons, the Ravens had a first quarter point differential of +97 and +74 but fell to -3 last year, partly due to injuries.
The improved secondary is slated to play the second easiest schedule of passing offenses, which will allow the Ravens to have success if able to jump out to early leads as before.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
Lamar Jackson unanimously won the MVP in 2019 averaging 208 yards a game passing.
That season the Ravens’ leading wide receiver had 46 receptions and 584 yards.
The mobile quarterback has an elite weapon at tight end and can extend plays and create opportunities for offensive success that camouflage the lack of depth at receiver.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Ravens Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
The Ravens were fortunate to be 8-4 before Lamar’s injury as four victories were fourth quarter comebacks, two more than Lamar had in the three previous years combined.
A late fumble by the Chiefs, a 61-yard game-ending field goal, a 16-point fourth quarter comeback, and an overtime win were all wins that could have easily had a different result.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
Despite the Ravens’ improved secondary, a repeat of the underwhelming pass rush from 2021 could prevent the playmaking corners and safeties from playing to their full potential.
The pass rush blitzed at the eighth-highest rate last year, but created pressure at a below average rate.
No significant upgrades to the pass rush have been made over the course of the offseason.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
Jackson struggled with accuracy in 2021 as he finished in the bottom half of starting quarterbacks in CPOE and finished with 15.2% of passes incomplete due to inaccuracy, the fifth-highest of all quarterbacks with more than 100 dropbacks.
The Ravens have the sixth-highest jump in passing defense efficiency strength of schedule in 2022, and Jackson will need to improve his accuracy to achieve more passing success.
Baltimore Ravens Strength of Schedule:
The Ravens are ranked #11 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them the one of the easier schedules for the 2022 NFL season.
Looking at their AFC North rivals, only the Browns have an easier schedule (#8), while the Steelers (#29) and Bengals (#26) have some of the hardest schedules this upcoming season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.