Every NFL offseason, Warren Sharp releases his Football Preview Book, which uses expert analysis to break down all 32 teams through in-depth team chapters that are both data driven and actionable.
One of the most popular sections from each team chapter is the Sharp Football team’s write-up on why to bet the Over or Under for a given team.
Saints Win Total Over/Under Odds:
How many games will the Saints win this season?
The Saints are predicted to win 8.5 games in 2022, based on Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Saints Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Over:
The Saints continued to push salary cap issues down the road this offseason and remained focused on remaining competitive in the short term. The Saints have the ninth easiest schedule and benefit from multiple games against the Panthers and Falcons.
#2 Reason to bet Over:
The Saints’ offense had brutal injury and COVID luck in 2021. The offense was forced to use four different starting quarterbacks and a revolving door of offensive linemen as the Saints’ most common offensive line played only 16% of snaps, lowest amount of any team in the league. Improvement in injury luck combined with an easier schedule of opposing defenses should lead to offensive improvement.
#3 Reason to bet Over:
The loss of star receiver Michael Thomas hurt a receiving room that already lacked depth as the Saints dropped from fifth-best (60%) to fourth-worst (46%) success rate targeting wide receivers. The team upgraded significantly at wide receiver by adding Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry and has the potential to three new starting receivers from last year.
Why You Should Bet the Under: Saints Win Total in 2022
#1 Reason to bet the Under:
Although the offense looks improved over last year, many questions remain. Jameis Winston is recovering from a torn ACL and Michael Thomas is still recovering from a lingering foot injury. Star running back Alvin Kamara faces a possible suspension for an off-the-field altercation.
Most importantly, how will this offense proceed without long-time coach Sean Payton? A wide range of outcomes remains for the Saints offense heading into the 2022 season.
#2 Reason to bet the Under:
The defense remains the strength of the Saints but the unit is likely due for regression in the red zone after allowing a league-low 43.5% red zone touchdown rate. The 2021 rate was 6.5% better than the next closest defense and a 22% improvement from the 2020 Saints defense.
#3 Reason to bet the Under:
The interior offensive line could hinder the offense. The line finished with the eighth-lowest Run Block Win Rate in 2021 and Andrus Peat allowed a 9% pressure rate, fourth-highest among left guards that played 100 snaps. The offensive line remains a liability and needs improved injury luck and player performance to give the Saints a better chance at offensive success.
New Orleans Saints Strength of Schedule:
The Saints are ranked #9 out of all 32 teams for NFL Strength of Schedule, giving them one of the league’s easiest schedules for the 2022 NFL season.
For full team chapters, including a dozen more visuals & info-graphics, defensive breakdown, and detailed Fantasy football implications pick up a copy of Warren Sharp’s new ‘2022 Football Preview’ book
All betting lines provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.