While the fantasy element of the Super Bowl is limited, the most available betting angles to take on the big game are in player props. Here we will be breaking down those props per player with career performance trends and some notes and nuggets.
All of these lines are current lines from BetMGM Sportsbook, so make sure you shop around for the best lines and numbers while staying up to date on the latest odds.
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop Bet
Current Line: 290.5 Passing Yards: Over (-115) /Under (-115)
- Career Games Over Hit%: 53.8%
- 2022%: 63.2%
The immediate difference with many of the lines set for Mahomes versus that of Jalen Hurts is that we are catching more palatable lines in relation to the career and 2022 output for Mahomes.
Mahomes has gone over this passing line in more than half of his career games and in 12-of-19 games this season. The Philadelphia defense is getting plenty of consideration in this line after they allowed just one quarterback (Dak Prescott in Week 16) to throw for more than 250 yards in a game this season and just two passers to clear 221 passing yards in a game this season.
Mahomes is by far the best passer the Eagles have faced this season and outside of facing Prescott. It is fair to highlight that the other quality passers that Philadelphia has drawn this season are limited to Trevor Lawrence (174 yards passing), Kirk Cousins (221 yards), and Kyler Murray (250 yards). Aaron Rodgers was the next-best passer outside of that group, but Rodgers also averaged a career-low 217.4 passing yards per game overall.
Mahomes has not hit this passing line in either Super Bowl appearance when Kansas City has punched up against top passing defenses such as San Francisco and Tampa Bay, throwing for 286 and 270 yards in those games. This is the third time Mahomes has been in the Super Bowl and the third time he is facing a pass defense that entered the Super Bowl in the top five in DVOA as a pass defense. The Eagles are first in that department right now while Tampa Bay was fifth in 2020 and the 49ers were second in 2019.
We have seen Mahomes punch up this season. He has faced San Francisco (fifth in pass defense DVOA) Denver twice (seventh), and Buffalo (ninth). He threw for 423, 352, 338, and 328 yards with 11 touchdown passes (also seven interceptions) in those games.
Patrick Mahomes Touchdown Passing Prop Bet
Current Line: 1.5 Touchdown Passes: Over (-210)/Under (+155)
- Career Games Over Hit%: 73.1%
- 2022%: 73.7%
The baseline for betting on multiple passing touchdowns from Mahomes is heavily weighted for good reason. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in nearly 75% of his career games and has done so in 14-of-19 games this season.
If chasing the under, you are betting on the Eagles’ defense rolling over their production from the regular season against the best passer they have faced this season. The Eagles allowed multiple passing touchdowns in just six games this season while allowing a 3.7% touchdown rate (eighth). The six passers that did throw multiple passing scores were the better end of their competition, which were Prescott, Lawrence, Rodgers, Jared Goff, Justin Fields, and Davis Mills.
If looking at the alternative lines here, Prescott was the only one of those passers to throw three passing touchdowns, but Mahomes has thrown three or more touchdowns in 46.2% of his career games, which is at +175.
If stocking anything from the previous three times that Mahomes has faced a defense with Gannon on the staff, he has failed to throw multiple passing touchdowns in two of those games, but also has a game with five touchdown passes as part of that small sample.
Patrick Mahomes Interceptions Prop Bet
Current Line: 0.5 Interceptions: Over (-110)/Under (-120)
- Career Games Over Hit%: 44.1%
- 2022%: 47.4%
Ryan McCrystal had Mahomes throwing at least one interception as his favorite Mahomes bet of the Super Bowl. Mahomes is not careless with the football, but he has thrown at least one interception in nine games this season. Although he has thrown just one pick over his past six games, the bulk of his interceptions have come against the front-end pass defenses that he has faced as mentioned in his yardage section.
The Eagles have had at least one interception in 12-of-19 games this season, but they also have dried up a bit to end the season, having a takeaway through the air in just three of their past eight games to close the season.
Mahomes has thrown multiple interceptions in both of his previous Super Bowl appearances.
Patrick Mahomes Passing Attempts Prop Bet
Current Line: 38.5 Passing Attempts: Over (-125)/Under (-105)
- Career Games Over Hit%: 45.2%
- 2022%: 47.4%
The pass attempts and completions for Mahomes are both right below his career and 2022 rates. We are catching a line that is implied to go over. Mahomes is averaging 37.9 pass attempts per game this season, but he has thrown 30 or fewer passes in four of his past eight games to close the season.
The Eagles have faced 31.4 pass attempts per game this season, with just four passers going over this total in a game this season.
The value here does lie with the under, but Mahomes has gone over this total in 8-of-15 career postseason starts (including both Super Bowls) while the Chiefs have increased their passing rate in the postseason under Mahomes, dropping back on 69.8% of their plays compared to a 66.3% rate in the regular season.
Patrick Mahomes Passing Completions Prop Bet
Current Line: 25.5 Passing Completions: Over (+100)/Under (-135)
- Career Games Over Hit%: 44.1%
- 2022%: 47.4%
There is a significant disconnect between the implied probability for the over on pass attempts for Mahomes versus that of his pass completions. If you like the over on the pass attempts for Mahomes, you are catching more value on the over for his completions in the game. Mahomes has nearly identical career and 2022 hit rates here compared to above as well.
In games in which Mahomes has gone over his current attempt total, he has completed at least 26 passes in 83.3% (35-of-42) of those games. With the over on his pass attempts carrying a 55.6% probability, there is more value here on his completions over versus his attempts total if you are interested in the over there.
Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Prop Bet
Current Line: 20.5 Rushing Yards: Over (-110)/Under (-120)
- Career Games Over Hit%: 46.2%
- 2022%: 52.6%
Mahomes has cleared this total in 10 games this season, but his ankle injury does cast a cloud over aggressively pursuing the over. Mahomes only rushed three times for eight yards in the AFC Title game and has rushed for single-digit yardage in six of his past eight games. The under is weighted here, but not so much where you have to avoid it.
The catch here is that if his ankle is in a much better place two weeks removed from the AFC Championship, the Eagles have been a defense that has also allowed a plethora of rushing yardage to quarterbacks this season. Philadelphia is 28th in the NFL in yardage allowed on the ground to quarterbacks (24.9 yards per game) while allowing 11 different signal callers to rush for 20 or more yards against them this season. The Eagles are 30th in the NFL this season in yards allowed per scramble, allowing 9.2 yards per run.
More Super Bowl Prop Bet Coverage:
- Best Super Bowl Receiving Prop Bets: Travis Kelce, DeVonta Smith
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Isiah Pacheco
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Miles Sanders
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Jalen Hurts
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets For Patrick Mahomes
- Super Bowl 57 Prop Bet Tracker
Be sure to look through our Super Bowl 57 Hub for detailed coverage & analysis on the big game.
Also, check out the Sharp Angles Betting Podcast every Wednesday for further discussion on these player props and more betting advice for the week ahead.
Don’t Miss out on our Playoff Recommendations
As a THANK YOU for following us throughout the season, both our betting recommendations and the wonderful content the team produces on the site… we wanted to offer you an option to save and get on board for our Super Bowl betting recommendations with savings:
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Hurry, as this sale ends soon AND even sooner, we’ll be releasing written game previews and Super Bowl bets to follow and props when lines are posted.
This year has been another outstanding time to be a betting client at Sharp Football Analysis, with Warren Sharp‘s betting recommendations running extremely hot, going 74% in our last 46 NFL bets to close the season:
- Last 5 weeks in NFL: 34-12 (74%)
- Final 2022 NCAAF Bowls: 18-8 (69%) including 6-0 (100%) on elevated plays
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- Final 2022 NFL Regular Season: 92-63 (59%)
- Final 2022 NFL Computer Totals: 37-15 (71%)
- Final 2022 NCAAF Regular Season: 126-94 (57%)
It’s truly been a great season and we’re excited for the playoffs, as it’s been extremely good to us in years past.
Historically, we’ve been outstanding on NFL Playoffs:
- 159-93 (62%) lifetime playoff record
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- 16-6 (73%) on Super Bowl week releases last year (including props)