The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the San Francisco 49ers could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
San Francisco 49ers 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-The electrical substation near San Francisco’s practice field has been the butt of jokes, but the club’s injury luck last year was no joke. They were 27th in offensive player health, 28th in defensive player health, and 28th in total player health. Brock Purdy missed eight games, and the pass-catching duo of Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle missed eight and six games, respectively. Nick Bosa suffered a season-ending injury in Week 3, and Fred Warner played in just six contests.
-The 49ers were 27th in interceptions thrown (16), 20th in total turnovers (22), 26th in turnover margin (-6), and 22nd in turnover net EPA. Purdy was responsible for 10 of the team’s interceptions, so Mac Jones doesn’t get the bulk of the blame for the high interception total. Still, Purdy threw 2 interceptions in Week 4 against the Jaguars, when he was playing through turf toe.
-San Francisco couldn’t pull themselves up by their bootstraps when trailing last year. They won only one of the six games they trailed at halftime. In addition, the 49ers ranked 27th in the largest score deficit overcome to win a game last year at only 7 points.
Reasons for the Under
-The 49ers didn’t squander first-half leads. Their 11 wins when leading at halftime were the second most, and they were one of four teams with a 1.000 win percentage when leading at halftime last year. The NFL average winning percentage when leading at the half in 2025 was .762.
-No one converted third downs at a higher rate in 2025 than the 49ers. Their 49.8% third-down conversion rate crushed the league average of 39.5%. Kyle Shanahan’s play-calling prowess can help them convert third downs at a rate near the top of the NFL, but they had a 45.0% third-down conversion rate from 2022 to 2024.
-San Francisco was seventh in field goal percentage (91.7%) and sixth in field goal attempt EPA. They also lucked out on opponent field goals. They were first in opponent field goal percentage (66.7%). As a result, the 49ers were second in field goal luck in 2025, with 8.58 net over expectation.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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Warren Sharp’s 600+ page full-color PDF, the 2026 Football Preview, is unlike anything you have read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps and stat pages, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought processes abound in every team chapter and article.
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- Team Chapters previews are in-depth, data-driven & full of actionable info
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- Vegas Odds forecast team wins, division rankings, lines for all 2026 games
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