The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the Seattle Seahawks could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
Seattle Seahawks 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-Seattle’s defense was the backbone of their Super Bowl team. They checked all the boxes last year, ranking second in yards allowed per play (4.6), sixth in yards allowed per game (285.9), first in explosive-play rate allowed, first in points allowed per drive (1.48), first in defensive points allowed per game (16.4), sixth in turnovers forced (25), sixth in pressure rate, and tied for seventh in sacks (47). The defense lost some contributors from last year’s team, but most of the defense is intact, and they offset their losses with additions in free agency and the NFL Draft.
-The Seahawks were 31st in total turnovers (28), 26th in interceptions thrown (15), 32nd in fumbles lost (13), and 25th in turnover net EPA last year. Interceptions are part of the package with Sam Darnold, but his 14 interceptions and 2.9% interception rate last year were up from 12 and 2.2% in 2024.
-Seattle has a blossoming young offensive line. The Seahawks were 10th in pressured-dropback rate last year. Not only are all five of their starting offensive linemen returning for 2026, but all six of the reserve offensive linemen who played offensive snaps for them are also back. They also spent a fifth-round pick on offensive lineman Beau Stephens.
Reasons for the Under
-Good health was critical for Seattle’s run to 14 wins, the NFC’s No. 1 seed, and the Super Bowl last year. The Seahawks were third in offensive player health, 13th in defensive player health, and third in total player health. The trio of Sam Darnold, Kenneth Walker, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba started in all 17 games in the regular season, and three of their five starting offensive linemen also played in all 17 games. Their front seven on defense was also extremely healthy last year.
-The Seahawks were third in scoring offense (28.4 points per game), but only ninth in offensive success rate, 18th in EPA per play, and 21st in red-zone touchdown rate (54.2%) last season. They were big-play dependent, ranking fourth in 20-plus yard play rate and fifth in 10-plus yard play rate.
-Seattle had the second-fewest games they trailed in last year. However, they were tied for fifth in wins in games they trailed with 5. Their .700 winning percentage in games that they trailed last year was third, and the NFL’s average was .378.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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- Team Chapters previews are in-depth, data-driven & full of actionable info
- Fantasy Football player profiles, predictions, and ranks
- Vegas Odds forecast team wins, division rankings, lines for all 2026 games
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- Front Office Analysis positional spending, roster construction & cap analysis
- Reasons to bet over/under win totals & analysis of futures betting market
- Rookie draft class deep dive into impact for every team
- Rankings for every positional unit on every team with analysis
- Penalty analysis for all 32 NFL teams
