While the fantasy element of the Super Bowl is limited, the most available betting angles to take on the big game are in player props. Here we will be breaking down those props per player with career performance trends and some notes and nuggets.
All of these lines are current lines from DraftKings Sportsbook, so make sure you shop around for the best lines and numbers.
The receptions (and yardage below) for both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are juiced up for the Super Bowl. Not a lot of value lies in betting the overs on either player here based on their career and 2020 seasonal performance trends.
Hill and Kelce have dominated all of the receiving production for the Chiefs this season. The duo has accounted for 47.6% of the team targets, 48.4% of the receptions, 56.8% of the receiving yardage, and 65.9% of the receiving touchdowns.
Kelce has seven or more receptions in 10 straight games, which is easily the best such streak for any tight end in league history. He had eight receptions when these teams played back in Week 12. You may be able to shop around for a lower total (the Under here is -136 compared to +110 on the Over), but Kelce hit nine receptions in just three games this season, despite being so close to this line on a week-to-week basis. A path for him to get there is if the Buccaneers incorporate even more zone coverage than they did in that Week 12 matchup, Kelce’s production has skyrocketed with the amount of 2-High safety coverage the Chiefs see on a per game basis as he leads the NFL in catches, yards, and touchdowns from that defensive alignment.
When these teams played in Week 12, Hill had the most memorable wide receiver performance of the 2020 season, catching 13-of-15 targets for 269 yards and three touchdowns. In the first quarter alone, Hill caught all seven of his targets for 203 yards and two scores. There is no doubt that his totals are heavily influenced by the performance. Hill hit the over (+110) on his current line more times than Kelce did this season, catching eight or more passes in five games.
While paying a tax on the overs for Kelce and Hill, the ancillary members of this passing game do carry some value. Especially if you are like me and believe that the Chiefs will be extremely pass heavy and the over on Patrick Mahomes’s pass attempts are in play.
From a season long stance, all of Sammy Watkins (+107), Mecole Hardman (+115), and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+107) hit their reception overs in 50% or more of their games this season. Both Watkins and Hardman got there in their game versus Tampa Bay as well. Hardman has at least three receptions in seven of his past 11 games played.
Edwards-Helaire had just one reception in that Week 12 game, but if looking for a path to an improved outlook this time around, Tampa Bay allowed a league-high 6.0 receptions per game to backs this season while in the AFC Championship game the first-round rookie played 19 passing snaps compared to 12 for Darrel Williams.
As with the receptions, there is a large gap here from Kelce and Hill to the field of Kansas City pass catchers, but both Kelce and Hill have carried a higher propensity to hit these yardage totals than they did their reception totals over both their careers and 2020 season. Kelce hit this mark in over half of his games played this year while he has seven 100-yard games over his past 10 games played with another falling just short with 98 yards.
Watkins again shows up as a potential value here. If you believe Watkins is healthy and good to go, then his overs should be on your radar. He was on the field when these teams played in Week 12 and caught 4-of-7 targets for 38 yards. Those marks are right at his current lines, but he hit both on 60% of his games played this season and has posted at least 37 yards receiving in 26 of his 36 games played with the Chiefs (72.2%).
Even Edwards-Helaire hit his threshold in half of his games played this season, although the over (-124) carries more weight than the under (+100). Kansas City backs totaled just three receptions for 12 yards in the previous meeting between these teams, but the Buccaneers did allow 17 different running backs to clear this over this season while allowing 37.8 receiving yards per game to opposing backfields (22nd).
This is your best outlook on a prop for Hill at the surface level, although it is -137. Hill had at least a 28-yard reception in 10 of his 17 games this season and was tied for the league-lead in such receptions this year with 14. When these teams played in Week 12, Hill had three such receptions for 34, 44, and 75 yards.
The standout here is Hardman (-112), who had a 15-yard reception in two-thirds of his games played and such a reception in nine of his past 12 games played. Hardman only averaged 13.7 yards per reception for the season, but 31.9% of his receptions on the season went for at least 15 yards. Hardman only managed to catch 3-of-5 targets for 23 yards when these teams played in Week 12, but he and Mahomes did leave a potential 90-yard touchdown on the field.