T.A.'s Week 6 Supercontest Picks

Week 6 NFL Westgate Supercontest Selections
Bengals should be able to stay within 11 against a poor Baltimore defense
Titans with their impressive recent record as an underdog should fare well in Denver
Deshaun Watson has the ammo to keep pace with the Chiefs

For purposes of these articles I will list the contest line as well as the most current line using 5Dimes sportsbook. I will note if the current line is playable or not. I have personally bet all of these sides unless otherwise noted. As always, shop for the best lines.

Current NFL Record:
YTD Supercontest Picks: 12-13-1 (48%) *includes NE -17 on TNF
Thursday Night Football: 6-0 (100%)
Other Sunday Posted Picks: 3-1 (75%)
Overall: 21-14-1 (60%)

Cincinnati +11 at Baltimore (Current Line: +10.5 -110 5Dimes)

The Bengals stink we already know this. But the Ravens defense is atrocious
Baltimore has allowed the 2nd highest yards per play in the NFL, only ahead of Miami
What’s even worse is that the Ravens have allowed the 2nd highest yards per play against a schedule of opponents that includes Miami, Cleveland, Arizona, and Pittsburgh with their third string QB.
They have faced 4 teams that rank in the bottom 10 in DVOA offense. The Chiefs are the only offense in the top 22 that they have faced. Their schedule of offenses faced ranks 27th in the NFL according to DVOA.
The pass rush, or lack thereof, and the secondary have been the biggest issues and it gets worse now that veteran safety Tony Jefferson got hurt last week. With Jimmy Smith doubtful again, this secondary is in trouble
Yes, Lamar Jackson and that offense will do almost whatever it will want against a bad Bengals defense, but 11 points is still a lot to cover with a defense as bad as Baltimore’s.
Historically, backing double-digit underdogs in-division has been profitable, especially in the first half of a season when the underdog is still motivated, and the season isn’t totally lost. In the last 10 years, double-digit dogs of 10+ in the division are 22-9-1 ats, good for 71%

Jacksonville +1.5 vs New Orleans (Current Line: -2 -120 5Dimes)

The Saints have been excellent since Teddy Bridgewater took over, beating the Seahawks, Cowboys, and Bucs at home. But let’s dig in a little bit more:
In a tough spot coming in for an injured Drew Brees, Bridgewater did not lead the Saints to a touchdown and only nine total points. The following week in a tough spot in Seattle, the Saints scored 33 points but only 21 were scored on offense. Two TDs on special teams and on defense helped propel the Saints to that victory. The Saints offense only gained 5.3 yards per play.
The following week, at home against Dallas, the Saints offense did not score a single touchdown and only 12 total points. The offense was even worse in that game, producing a poor 4.3 yards per play output.
Then last week, Bridgewater and that Saints offense were excellent in beating up on Tampa, scoring 31 points and 6.8 yards per play. But that was against a Tampa team that had just flown across the country the prior week and destroyed the Rams. The Tampa defense had to endure 81 plays against that Rams offense and then fly across the country back to New Orleans the following week. Maybe that’s just an excuse but it does feel like the Bucs defense was gassed.
From a qualitative perspective, this spot is a tough one for the Saints. They had just played four straight tough games against the Rams, Seahawks, Cowboys, and a big divisional game at home against Tampa. Now here they are exceeding expectations at 4-1 and have to go to sleepy Jacksonville. How important is this game for the Saints? Not too important in the scheme of things so it would be natural to let down here.
The Jags have to win this game to have any hope for a playoff run. Motivation will definitely be there for Jacksonville.
The final advantage is Alvin Kamara popping up on the injury report on Friday. He is currently questionable and wouldn’t be out of the question for him to sit in a non-division game. We will see how that plays out but any Kamara that’s no 100% is a big advantage for the Jags.

Tennessee +2 at Denver (Current Line: +2 -110 5Dimes)

There is no bigger Jekyll and Hyde team than the Titans. Every time you think the Titans should win a game, they lay an egg and every time you expect them to lose, they come out with a great performance.
When I dug a little deeper, I noticed this team definitely follows a trend. Since Mike Vrabel took over the Titans in 2018, they have gone 8-4 ats as an underdog. They are 5-2 ats as road underdogs. If you filter a little more and only include games where the Titans were underdogs out of division where there isn’t as much familiarity and game planning is more valuable, the Titans are 6-1 ats under Vrabel.
Denver, on the other hand, is terrible as a home favorite. They are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, including losing outright to Jacksonville just two weeks ago. Denver is 6-13-3 ats as a home favorite since Peyton Manning retired.
From a matchup perspective, both teams are definitely card-carrying members of team “establishing the run.” They have similar profiles of being run based offenses with solid defenses. However, Denver does struggle a bit more defending the run ranking 21st in success rate. Leonard Fournette ran all over the Broncos two weeks ago for 225 yards.
Ever since Denver lost Derek Wolfe at DL to injury, they have struggled against the run. Wolfe was the best Bronco run-stopper last year along the DL, ranking 16th in the NFL in run-stop percentage. He was 34th this season prior to his injury. Derrick Henry should find room to run on this defense.

Texans 4.5 at Kansas City (Current Line: +4 -110 5Dimes)

This is a collision course of two betting axioms I try and follow. Don’t bet against the Chiefs with a short line and don’t bet against Deshaun Watson as an underdog.
Watson has started 27 games in his career and has lost by more than four only four times. The Texans are 5-1 ats as an underdog in Watson’s career. The only loss was by seven in New England last season as a 6-point underdog.
I just think in this case it’s a bad matchup for KC and the injuries will hamper them too much
Not only do the Chiefs have the 32nd ranked run defense from a success rate standpoint, but they are 26th from a pass rush standpoint, according to PFF, and will be without their best defensive lineman, Chris Jones.
There is no QB in the NFL I want more needing a backdoor score than Watson. So even if KC is up double digits, Watson will have a chance to cover late. The Chiefs have done a poor job defending QBs this season running the football so Watson will have the ability to extend and make plays.
The Chiefs will be going up against the third-ranked pass rush in Houston. KC has yet to face a pass rush inside the top 15. The highest-rated is the Colts and we saw how they bothered Patrick Mahomes last week.