The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-The Buccaneers were 29th in offensive player health and 24th in total player health. Graham Barton was their only offensive lineman to play in all 17 games, followed by Charlie Heck at 14 and Tristan Wirfs at 12. Baker Mayfield started in all 17 games, but he was on the injury report throughout the year with a vast array of injuries. Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Jalen McMillan played in nine, eight, and four games, respectively, due to injuries, and Bucky Irving played in 10 games due to injuries.
-The red zone was a problem area on the field for the Bucs on offense and on defense. Tampa Bay was 23rd in offensive red-zone touchdown rate (54.0% versus 57.3% for the NFL average) and 32nd in defensive red-zone touchdown rate allowed (69.8% versus 57.3% for the NFL average).
-Tampa Bay stubbed their toes in their most winnable games and couldn’t climb out of a halftime deficit last year. They were tied for 28th in games against non-playoff teams (8) last year, but they won only four of those. Their winning percentage (.500) against non-playoff teams was 23rd and below the NFL average of .646. The Bucs were also 0-8 in games they trailed at the half.
Reasons for the Under
-Everything came up roses in the penalty department for the Buccaneers last year. The Bucs were fourth in accepted penalties (95), fifth in total penalty yards (737), third in penalty first downs (43), third in opponent accepted penalties (128), fifth in opponent penalty yards (994), third in opponent penalty first downs (23), second in penalty margin (-33), second in penalty yard margin (-257), and third in net penalty EPA.
-Turnovers worked out in Tampa Bay’s favor last year. They were ninth in total turnovers (16), fifth in fumbles lost (5), seventh in opponent turnovers (23), fourth in opponent fumbles lost (10), seventh in fumble luck (+3.6 net over expectation), sixth in turnover margin (+7), and fifth in turnover net EPA.
-Can new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and a healthier season fix Tampa Bay’s offense? They were 21st in yards per play (5.1), 24th in rate of plays that gained 10-plus yards, 20th in EPA per play, 23rd in success rate, 20th in points per drive (2.02), and 18th in points per game (22.4). The offense will also no longer have Mike Evans after he departed in free agency for the 49ers.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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Warren Sharp’s 600+ page full-color PDF, the 2026 Football Preview, is unlike anything you have read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps and stat pages, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought processes abound in every team chapter and article.
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Warren Sharp's book shares insights into the players, coaches, teams, and philosophies with one goal: to prepare you for the 2026 NFL season with the smartest information delivered in the fastest, most direct way possible for optimal reviewing and retention.
- Team Chapters previews are in-depth, data-driven & full of actionable info
- Fantasy Football player profiles, predictions, and ranks
- Vegas Odds forecast team wins, division rankings, lines for all 2026 games
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- Front Office Analysis positional spending, roster construction & cap analysis
- Reasons to bet over/under win totals & analysis of futures betting market
- Rookie draft class deep dive into impact for every team
- Rankings for every positional unit on every team with analysis
- Penalty analysis for all 32 NFL teams
