The following is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview. In addition to Warren's deep, detailed write-up on all 32 NFL teams, each chapter features page after page of full-color charts, stats, and heatmaps, as well as win total analysis from Josh Shepardson. Click here for a full FREE chapter from the 2026 Football Preview.
No matter how good or bad an NFL team projects to be, there is always a wide range of potential outcomes due to injuries and luck that can help or hurt teams every season.
Let's look at the reasons the Tennessee Titans could go over their win total in 2026 and why they might go under their win total this season.
Tennessee Titans 2026 Win Total: Will They Go Over or Under?
Reasons for the Over
-In Tennessee’s 3-14 campaign, more than a third of their contests were one-score games. They played seven one-score games but went just 2-5 in those contests. They had a .286 winning percentage in one-score games in 2025, tied for 26th in the league.
-Cam Ward had a nightmare rookie season in an awful situation, with the Titans firing head coach Brian Callahan after Week 6. Ward was last among 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play, 33rd in yards per pass attempt (5.9), 31st in completion percentage (59.8%), 29th in off-target throw rate, and 33rd in touchdown rate. The coaching staff did not help him with the easy button of motion on many plays. Ward was 30th in the percentage of dropbacks with motion. Brian Daboll is his new offensive coordinator, and Ward’s pass-catching weapons were drastically improved in the offseason with the additions of Wan’Dale Robinson in free agency and Carnell Tate with the fourth pick in the NFL Draft.
-A revamped offense with a new voice calling the plays should help the Titans keep more drives alive after struggling on third downs in 2025. They ranked 31st in third-down conversion rate (31.9% versus 39.5% league average).
Reasons for the Under
-Robert Saleh’s defensive background can help him improve Tennessee’s defense, but the Titans ranked poorly on that side of the ball last year. They were 29th in scoring defense (26.5 points per game), 28th in points allowed per drive (2.45), 28th in yards allowed per play (5.8), 32nd in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.2), 21st in yards allowed per game (345.1), 26th in explosive-play rate allowed, and 29th in interception rate. Their strength was defending the run, ranking 15th in rushing yards allowed per game (114.6) and 17th in yards allowed per rush (4.3), but the Titans traded T’Vondre Sweat to the Jets.
-Saleh’s tenure as the head coach for the Jets (2021 through Week 5 in 2024) doesn’t inspire confidence in him elevating an organization through decision-making and discipline. During his three full seasons (2021-2023), the Jets ranked 30th in fourth-down decision EPA, 28th in accepted penalties, 27th in penalty yards, and 32nd in penalty margin (51).
-The Titans were 22nd in percentage of dropbacks with pressure and 28th in yards before contact per rush attempt (1.12). They’re swapping in new bodies along the offensive line. Still, Austin Schlottmann, Cordell Volson, and Austin Deculus received modest deals in free agency, and their two draft picks along the offensive line were made in the fifth and sixth rounds. The new faces in the group are unlikely to turn the offensive line into a strength.
This analysis continues in the 2026 Football Preview
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